Ramblings: Good bye Ottawa, Jonathan Drouin, Vadim Shipachyov and more (May 5)

Neil Parker

2017-05-05

Tanner Glass - USA TODAY Sports Images

 

The Senators are done.

Maybe Ottawa wins another game in this series, but the Sens have been outplayed by a wide margin for the majority of the past three games. The Rangers have generated 15.67 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes while allowing just 7.69.

Erik Karlsson's biggest asset is his skating ability. He's not at 100 percent, and aggravating the hairline fractures in his left heel is going to hinder his mobility. If it's a new injury, that's a huge blow, too. Often times, compensating for an existing injury leaves you susceptible to sustain another ailment. If he's now nursing two injuries, that's a serious concern.

Additionally, Craig Anderson has been notoriously streaky throughout his career, and he's currently struggling. Anderson now sports an .878 save percentage through the past three games with 12 goals allowed.

 

However, the biggest takeaway from Game 4, at least from my standpoint, was that Ottawa allowed the New York power play to build some momentum. The Rangers scored just two power-play goals on 26 opportunities (7.7 percentage) through their first nine playoff games, but then Ottawa allowed Ryan McDonagh to log 6:03 of ice time with the man advantage in Game 4. The Rangers scored their third power-play goal of the playoffs and had three in-game practices with the man advantage in the third period.

The Senators mailed it in, and then were undisciplined. 

New York posted a 10th-ranked 20.3 power-play percentage and 12th-ranked 6.87 goals per 60 minutes with the man advantage during the regular season, so providing a conked-out power play the chance to find its form was a mistake. 

 

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It's scary that this fourth-line strategy article was written before the Blueshirts depth pieces won Game 4. We shouldn't be ignoring the fourth line in fantasy, either. If teams continue to shift to dressing more skilled players on their bottom line, it will provide more opportunities for young players to cut their teeth at the highest level. We can than get a better feel for their fantasy outlook.

Cherry-picking Kasperi Kapanen as an example, he flashed potential in a fourth-line role this season. He had the two-goal game in the playoffs and posted an impressive 8.13 shots per 60 minutes at five-on-five during the regular season. With better linemates and more offensive looks, Kapanen will be a player of interest.

 

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Your draft room is going to be more excited about Jonathan Drouin than you probably should be. The assumption for most is that he'll take another step forward and approach 60 or 65 points. While that's very possible, 55 points might be a more realistic projection.

Often times we think development is statistically linear, and in a lot of cases it is, but not in all. Often times younger players plateau or have ups and downs before entering their prime years. Blindly expecting Drouin to take another sizeable step forward is going to be costly, and it might not happen.

For starters, 26 of Drouin's 53 points came with the man advantage, and he averaged 3:06 of power-play time per game. Both of those numbers might be unsustainably high. A healthy Lightning forward corps could cut into Drouin's ice time with the man advantage, and Tampa Bay could potentially shift to use two units more evenly instead of leaning mainly on a No. 1 group.

Drouin's five-on-five production was underwhelming, too. Among all skaters with at least 750 minutes, his 1.41 points per 60 minutes ranked 168th. Albeit, his most frequent five-on-five linemates weren't a who's who of proven scorers (Alex Killorn, Valtteri Filppula, Brian Boyles, Brayden Point and Vladislav Namestnikov).  

Just to be clear, the concern is the projected cost to acquire Drouin. He's currently ranked as the 47th forward and 72nd overall at NHL.com. For comparison sake, he's ranked 32nd in the Top 300 Keeper Rankings. That doesn't seem like a sizeable enough of a gap for a player that's still a year or two from entering his offensive prime. At 72nd overall, the breakout is already priced in. Add the upcoming hype he's going to receive this summer, and it wouldn't be surprising to see Drouin beginning to be drafted around Pick 50 this fall.

 

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Pavel Zacha posted nine power-play points — three goals — through 27 games after the All-Star break. He also had a 28-game stretch with six goals, 17 points and 10 power-play points from mid-January through the end of March. Considering the Devils scored the third-fewest goals per game (2.2) and generated the fourth-fewest high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes (9.36), the late-season offensive run is impressive from Zacha.

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While it's not likely to be a ripe fantasy situation anytime soon, there is always the chance Zacha shares the ice with Taylor Hall more in 2017-18. For now, Zacha isn't worth a look outside of deep leagues, but a handful of fleeting offensive outbursts shouldn't be surprising next year, and he'll be an interesting low-priced target for daily contests.

 

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This Shayne Gostisbehere season review is worth a read. It's deep, man.

After everything went right in his rookie season, it would have been foolish to expect Gostisbehere to follow it up with similar numbers considering his 11.2 shooting percentage and 102.4 PDO in 2015-16. However, outside of his minus-21 rating, a 39-point, 198-shot season with 23 power-play points is a solid showing from a 23-year-old sophomore. It's also worth noting that Gostisbehere was benched and scratched multiple times.

2017-18 will be a telling season for the defenseman and the Flyers. Claude Giroux is probably completely past his offensive prime after posting a declining point total in three consecutive seasons. The pivot is a ripe rebound candidate, but he's probably not a point-per-game player anymore. Without a legitimate superstar, it's going to be tough for Gostisbehere to push close to 2.0 points per 60 minutes next year. He posted a 2.15 mark in 2015-17 with 1.61 points per 60 minutes last year. There is Ivan Provorov lurking, too, and he could quickly eat into some of Gostisbhere's prime five-on-five minutes.

Expecting Gostisbehere to settle in statistically between his first two seasons is probably the safe bet. 50 points is still a solid return, but the freewheeling, rover-type defenseman that we saw in 2015-16 is probably gone. The coaching staff will want to continue to reel Gostisbehere in to play a safer brand of hockey.

 

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The biggest fantasy ripple of the night was Las Vegas announcing the signing of Vadim Shipachyov to a two-year, $4.5 million contract. The contract alone has probably already solidified the 30-year-old Russian as the No. 1 offensive center in all situations, and after posting 26 goals and 76 points through 50 KHL games this season, there is a target-worthy fantasy floor.

There are likely to be the typical ups and downs of a first-year player in the league, and unlike Artemi Panarin, Shipachyov won't have a Patrick Kane-type star to play pitch and catch with. Still, 20 minutes of ice time with three minutes on the power play should help Shipachyov avoid any lengthy slumps.The Golden Knights are likely to also have a long season in their first year in the league, and his plus-minus rating could be crippling. 

He'll have the benefit of playing from behind a lot, which typically means the ice becomes tilted in favor of the trailing team as opponents sit back on their leads. As long as the Golden Knights grab a couple capable wingers (Jason Zucker and Vladislav Namestnikov perhaps), Shipachyov should be a solid fantasy asset. His floor is probably going to be more attractive than his ceiling, and 20 goals could be a stretch, but the skilled playmaker is going to be fantasy relevant.

 

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Not every surgery is successful, Dobber!

 

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Enjoy tonight's Western Conference tilts, Dobberheads.

 

 

19 Comments

  1. Striker 2017-05-05 at 08:50

    I have Drouin breaking thru 65 points next season; 66 to be exact. I see no decline, continues upward trajectory. Should he be traded then I up him to 70.

    • rob2kx 2017-05-05 at 12:33

      Over/Under of 65.5? I’d take the under on that, and I’d give you odds.

      • Striker 2017-05-05 at 13:03

        What odd’s are you offering?

    • MarkRM16 2017-05-05 at 15:42

      The X factor is whether or not he’s on Stamkos’ wing. That’s 50 vs 70.

      • Striker 2017-05-05 at 17:21

        Stamkos only played 17 games last season & Drouin posted 53 points. At 164 NHL regular season games played Drouin’s fast approaching my break out point for players of his make up. That’s in or around 200 NHL regular season games.

        I really don’t care who he plays with & his deployment on 1 of TB’s top 2 scoring lines is virtually guaranteed & he will see at least 2nd line PP time. As long as he plays at least 75 games I don’t see how he doesn’t break 60 points. If he plays 82 my target is 66.

        • Neil Parker 2017-05-05 at 19:22

          I could see Drouin hitting 60 points. My issue is you’re paying for that breakout already. The breakout is already baked into his ranking and perceived value.

          • Striker 2017-05-05 at 19:55

            I have a system & rarely deviate from it unless circumstances dictate. Trade, coaching change, opportunity, etc.

            I see no reason Drouin can’t be significantly better next season.

          • Neil Parker 2017-05-05 at 20:53

            I’m just anticipating the offseason buzz train making him a 5th-round pick. That’s my qualm. He’s going to be one of the most heavily inked breakout candidates.

        • MarkRM16 2017-05-07 at 01:41

          I should have made my point more clear by stating it in points-per-game. I don’t doubt his potential by any means, but I’m not sure if he can stay healthy. He’s already missed 34 games this early in his career.

  2. Rick Roos 2017-05-05 at 09:01

    I agree on being wary of overvaluing Drouin, and so did the numbers in my cage match on him from a few weeks ago. Also, VERY unlikely that Hall and Zacha play much together, since Hall’s G/60 at 5×5 when those two shared the ice was a woeful 0.83 (2.02 was his overall rate)

    • Neil Parker 2017-05-05 at 19:21

      That sample size with Zacha and Hall isn’t large enough to draw a conclusion. I checked the numbers, too.

  3. Striker 2017-05-05 at 09:23

    Shipachyov 4.5 per for 2 years should solidify him a top 6 role but the 1st line C spot will be up for grabs. Not certain bringing in a 1st year KHL player even at 30 & annotating him the #1 C in May is sound. Ha-ha! Nor is he the best choice to take that prominent a role on an expansion team. Perhaps Spooner, RNH, Johnson, or Galchenyuk are acquired in trade, Perreault in the expansion draft or Thornton, Marleau, Desharnais, etc. are signed as a UFA. Good signing by Vegas.

    What we do know for certain is Vegas is coming out of the draft with very close to 30 NHL quality players. Probably nominally more by the time side deals are worked out. There are a few teams that have virtually nothing to lose but a bunch that are going to lose very good players. Not superstars, not even stars but some very good players especially at D. I also assume several teams will move players pre expansion to avoid losing really good players but Vegas should be in a position to secure some very good players from those teams who’s rosters are brimming with talent. They then move some of the assets; especially the surplus of Dman acquired, post expansion before the season starts.

    They are also in a great position to help existing teams out their cap issues. Even if the cap hits 76 mil, I think 75 is more realistic, several teams need to shed salary before next season. Chicago, Columbus, Detroit, NYR, Pit, StL, TB, Was, & a few others although not as tight as these 8. Several can elevate the pinch buy buying someone out & playing hard ball with their RFA’s.

    It should be a very exciting summer for hockey fans like us. More player movement than we have ever seen before & if teams were smart they would be preparing for a 67 cent Canadian dollar by the end of 2018 at the latest. That will have a a significant impact on the cap moving forward.

    • Neil Parker 2017-05-05 at 19:20

      Top-six role with lots of power-play time is a lock. Maybe someone else comes in and logs big minutes up the middle, but until that happens, Shipachyov is that guy.

      • Striker 2017-05-05 at 19:38

        Neil. You may well be right. I went & did a bunch of research after posting. He’s certainly going to play a significant role.

        What are you projecting for points at 1st blush? 50, 55?

        • Neil Parker 2017-05-05 at 20:50

          18 goals and 53 points seems reasonable.

  4. larrylintz 2017-05-05 at 18:26

    As a Sens fan I appreciate your optimism, Neil, but sad to say that I see them going out in six. This is a lottery team with a wounded Karlsson and floundering Anderson. More proof in these playoffs that EK far more deserving of MVP than McD or Sid, as much as I admire both players.

    • Neil Parker 2017-05-05 at 19:16

      One of the job requirements is pushing the envelope and not being wishy washy. I don’t necessarily stand behind everything above fully and completely, but fence sitting makes for a poor rambling. I’m more and more impressed with Karlsson every time I watch him.

  5. Mark Legolas Stone 2017-05-07 at 02:40

    Shit prediction about the sens there, Neil. Looks like the rangers are on the brink

  6. Glenn Loucks 2017-05-12 at 16:33

    So wrong.
    Glad I banked on Ottawa from round 1 in my playoff team to make it through at least 2 rounds. I still have more Sens than I do Pens players.

    Bothered that there seems to be more written about Washington’s and New York’s failure than there is about Ottawa stunning so many experts wrong.

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