Ramblings: Burakovsky Breakout Helps Caps Push Series to Game 7 (May 9)
Neil Parker
2017-05-09
Before digging in, here is a quick run through some of the latest fantasy happenings.
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Tyler Bertuzzi is having another strong playoff run with Grand Rapids with three goals and eight points through six games. Over the past three years, Bertuzzi has 16 goals and 24 points through 24 postseason contests.
Quickly spinning this to a general Red Wing outlook, there is more offensive talent in the organization than a quick glance would reveal. Bertuzzi looks the part of a secondary contributor. Evgeny Svechnikov is highly skilled. Dylan Larkin and Anthony Mantha are already scoring at the highest level, and Tomas Tatar and Gustav Nyquist are both still in their primes. Henrik Zetterberg had 68 points and a 52.2 Corsi For percentage this season. And that Andreas Athanasiou guy isn't too bad, either.
Unfortunately, serviceable players — Justin Abdelkader, Frans Nielsen and Darren Helm — eat up too many minutes. Riley Sheahan's been dumped on enough already to be included.
However, it's probably the Detroit blue line that is the biggest problem. That's another topic for another day, though. Hit the comments with thoughts.
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John Tavares had hand surgery last month to fix an injury that lingered through the majority of the season. Remember, Tavares also suffered a lower-body injury March 31 that ended his year. However, considering his midseason run, it would be extremely difficult to pinpoint when the hand injury actually began to hinder his play.
What really stands out from the above stats is the lack of power-play production. Tavares recorded just seven goals and 11 assists with the man advantage, and he also managed just 19 power-play points in 2014-15. His last point-per-game campaign was in 2014-15 when he posted 13 goals and 31 points up a man. There are all kinds of reasons why the numbers have dipped. A lack of supporting talent is the most obvious, but Tavares' five-on-five numbers have remained solid. Over the past three years, Tavares' 2.08 points per 60 minutes at five-on-five rank second among all skaters with at least 3,500 minutes played.
With unresitrected free agency to follow the 2017-18 campaign, Tavares is going to be talked and written about a lot over the next 14 months. However, this is certainly an interesting starting point:
"This was already going to be an eventful offseason for Tavares, who has one year remaining on his contract and will let general manager Garth Snow know sometime in the next month whether he is interested in signing a long-term extension. He is eligible to sign a new deal on July 1 and the Islanders, from owners Scott Malkin and Jon Ledecky on down, have spent the better part of a year keeping the lines of communication open with Pat Brisson, Tavares’ agent, on the organization’s plans.
The team is likely to offer Tavares an eight-year contract worth upward of $10 million per season. If Tavares tells the Islanders he’s not interested in signing this summer, Snow will likely be forced to entertain trade offers for his superstar before July 1 arrives. Even with a year left on Tavares’ deal, the Islanders can’t wait to see what happens in the 2018 offseason and risk seeing their captain walk away with no compensation to start over without their franchise player."
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Game 6 was brutal television. The Penguins were dominated, and the shot heatmap and Corsi For Gameflow chart really paint a clear picture.
At no point was Pittsburgh really in this hockey game, and the numbers are actually closer than I would have expected after watching. The high-danger chances were tied 7-7, and Washington only posted a 56.3 Corsi For percentage at five-on-five, albeit it was a 60.4 mark after two periods. The Penguins only registered 18 shots for the entire game, and nine through the first two periods.
Many will blame Marc-Andre Fleury on Washington's second goal, but that was clearly a horrible read by Ron Hainsey. Hainsey didn't have the time he thought he did, and then Ian Cole fell pivoting to skate backwards. It was essentially a 2-on-0. If Fleury didn't leave the post, Burakovsky would have made the pass and the Capitals likely scored anyway.
The Penguins blue line wasn't able to compete with Washington. Moving Alex Ovechkin to play with Lars Eller and Tom Wilson has been a success. Over the past two games, Eller has been on the ice for the most high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes (13.45) of all Capitals at five-on-five, and Andre Burakovsky's 13.43 rank second. Additionally, Eller, Burakovsky, T.J. Oshie and Alex Ovechkin all have a Corsi For percentage above 60.
That defense corps isn't built to handle a team capable of rolling four lines, and especially when three are dangerous. Trevor Daley's absence was significant, and without a shut-down pair, or even a solid top-unit defenseman, it's no wonder the Capitals won consecutive games.
It was interesting to see Evgeny Kuznetsov on the No. 1 power-play unit and set up T.J. Oshie's goal from Marcus Johansson's usual post. Typically, Johansson roams in the handle area of the umbrella formation, which is off the goal post and on the opposite side of the ice that Alex Ovechkin settles in.
Could Kuznetsov be deployed more often with the No. 1 unit going forward? Does anyone know if Johnansson needed a skate sharpened, or took a hit, or went to the dressing room? Why was Kuznetsov out there instead of Johansson? Was it is just a gut feel for Barry Trotz?
I've got questions, and we need answers because even the odd look with that top unit would allow Kuznetsov to earn a full-time gig there. He isn't a superior option to Johansson, Kuznetsov is just a clear-cut better one. The swing in fantasy value would be tremendous, and it could be the difference between 10 points for each player. Johansson had 19 power-play points while averaging 3:18 of ice time with the man advantage last year, whereas Kuznetsov had just 14 points with the man advantage and an average of 2:18 on the power play.
Looking at it from per 60 minutes numbers, Kuznetsov had 5.18 points per 60 minutes over 162:19 of power-play time compared to Johansson's 4.97 points per 60 minutes over 229:24.
Andre Burakovsky's recent two-game breakout was brewing through the first four games of the series. He was on the ice for the most high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes (21.18) of all Capitals, and then exploded for three goals, four points and seven shots over the past two games.
His hit on Ron Hainsey to cause the turnover that lead to the second goal of the game was just a dominant play. Burakovsky steamrolled Hainsey confidently and exploded toward the net so quick that Ian Cole fell down. Could Hainsey and Cole have prevented the goal, absolutely, but Burakovsky bullied them with size, speed and skill.
Bob Cole whiffing on the Burakovsky goal call is incredible pic.twitter.com/2EoeIyVjl6
— Jeff Veillette (@JeffVeillette) May 9, 2017
Burakovsky getting fancy pic.twitter.com/HabnGQzzqA
— Pete Blackburn (@PeteBlackburn) May 9, 2017
While Burakovsky's first goal looked like a high-school bully dominating a Grade 6 gym class, his second goal was just patience and skill. Chad Ruhwedel committed way too early, but initially the defenseman was in good position. Burakovsky just beat him. It's a scary thing when skilled players are confident, and Burakovsky has flashed high-end potential in the past.
Don't forget this midseason heater from 2015-16:
That's not a lot of ice time, yet the sophomore was still flirting with a point-per-game stretch.
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After calling out the Senators, they came back and won Game 5 in dramatic fashion. Maybe Ottawa will win, after all.
Regardless, enjoy Game 6 between Ottawa and New York, Dobberheads.