Playoff recap, going through some of the top Carolina fantasy performers, and thoughts on Brady Skjei. 

****

Nashville-Anaheim

Nashville took Game One on the road by a 3-2 margin in overtime off the stick of James Neal. It was a game the Predators likely deserved to win, and they were rewarded. 

The first period was one of absolute domination by the Predators. Though the clock struck zero with a score of 1-1, on goals by Jakob Silfverberg (a weak one let in by Pekka Rinne) and Filip Forsberg, the shots were 15-6. That shot differential accurately describes the play.

The road team scored in the second, with the home team tying things up in the third period. That would push it to overtime, despite a five-on-three for 90 seconds for Nashville following to delay of game penalties by Anaheim about halfway through the third. 

I know one bad goal isn’t anything to get riled up about, but it was a reminder of what to expect from Rinne. He settled in for the rest of the game, but it brought serious flashbacks anyway. He was a below-average goalie over the course of four seasons from 2012-2016 before turning in a .918 save percentage in 2016-17. Remember who he really is going into fantasy drafts next year. The value comes from the team he plays on, not his actual talent.

****

Throughout the summer, I will be going team-by-team and reviewing the fantasy performances of some of the key players from the 2016-17 season. That continues in this Rambling with the Carolina Hurricanes.

Sebastian Aho

It makes sense to start with one of the more understated rookie seasons – understated only because of the competition for the Calder Trophy this year. In fact, since the start of the 2013-14 season, there have only been a handful of teenage rookies to manage at least 20 goals and 25 assists in a single campaign, and that list is distinguished:

There isn’t a lot that stands out as being lucky, either. He managed over 2.6 shots per game, and an 11.2 percent conversion rate. Out of the 136 forwards with at least 1000 minutes played at five-on-five, he was in the top-25 in shots per minute, shooting 8.43 percent. He also managed a point on just 65.9 percent of goals scored with him on the ice, which is a perfectly reasonable number. The team also shot 7.27 percent with him on the ice, compared to 7.34 percent as a team average. The graphic below shows his individual scoring chances generated per 60 minutes, in the column highlighted to the right (via Corsica):

Again, good company, and further evidence his season was not a mirage of any sorts.

We’ll see what the Hurricanes do with their offseason. They have a lot of opportunities here:

CAR has Hanifin/Pesce/Aho on ELCs this year, no major peices are UFA, >$25M in theoretical cap space, and six picks in the first 3 rounds

— Michael Clifford (@SlimCliffy) May 12, 2017

Regardless of the moves Carolina makes in June and July, there is not much reason to think Aho won’t improve production next year barring bad luck/injury. Hopefully the fact that he plays for Carolina depresses his ADP, because with an ice time boost, a 30/30 season is within reach.

Jeff Skinner

Speaking of underrated, it’s amazing what playing in a ‘non-traditional’ hockey market that has little recent playoff success will do to keep a player’s profile down. The following is a list of regular forwards with a higher goals per 60 minutes rate at five-on-five than Skinner does over the last four seasons: Steven Stamkos, Vladimir Tarasenko, Rick Nash, Corey Perry, and Max Pacioretty. That’s it. Skinner’s mark of 1.11 is the same as Evgeni Malkin, and higher than Patrick Kane (1.10) and Tyler Seguin (1.09). It should come as no surprise he posted 37 goals this year, as he had cracked 30 twice before. He turns just 25 years old next week.

Injuries had been a problem for Skinner in the past, particularly concussions. This is likely a reason why his minutes had diminished from earlier in his career. He did have a four-year high in minutes per game this past season, however, and should see similar minutes next year.

Repeating a 37-goal campaign is difficult for almost every player. His 13.2 percent shooting was his highest since his rookie season, and had averaged just 9.9 percent since that year. However, he did have the third-highest rate of scoring chances generate per 60 minutes (4.63) among all forwards with 1000 minutes played, trailing only Auston Matthews and Connor McDavid. While that number is high, he was sixth among all forwards over the previous two seasons, so it’s not like being among the best in the NHL at generating scoring chances is a new wrinkle to his profile.

Again, a 37-goal year is tough to replicate. There is room for improvement on the power play, where he had just seven goals and 15 points (though the seven PP goals are the second-highest mark of his career). The team is improving around him, he’s healthy, in his prime, is getting more minutes than usual, and has proven to be one of the top offensive talents in the league. Another 30-goal season is in the cards.

Justin Faulk

For the third season in a row, Faulk cracked the 15-goal plateau. He is just one of four defencemen to do so, along with Shea Weber, Brent Burns, and Erik Karlsson. There isn’t a lot of sense in reviewing too much of his season because it’s about what we’ve come to expect from him. One thing does concern me, however, and it’s his ice time, particularly on the power play.

According to Dobber’s Frozen Pool, Faulk played 2:43 with the man advantage this year. That’s good. Noah Hanifin also cracked the 2:00 mark as well, however. The Hurricanes often ran four-forward power plays as well. Should the team decide to stack the top unit with offensive talent, it is unclear whether Hanifin or Faulk will get those minutes (think something like Dallas, San Jose, Buffalo, or Pittsburgh, but with two defencemen capable of playing the top unit). Not that it would kill Faulk’s value, but it would make it difficult for him to push for 20-25 power play points, instead settling around 15 again.

The determination on the power-play units is months away, so for now it may be worrying for nothing. I still do believe that Faulk is the team’s top option on the blue line with the man advantage, but it is something to keep in mind for next year. If he’s not, it kind of caps his upside, making it likely to repeat what he did this past season rather than improve upon it.

Jaccob Slavin

The second-highest scoring defenceman on the Hurricanes was not, in fact, Noah Hanifin (29 points), but rather Jaccob Slavin (34). That is despite considerably less power play time as well.

He is down the next tier of rearguards this team will rely on for the power play, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be productive. By productive, I mean a 30-point season rather than 40 points. He hasn’t been racking up the primary assists, making his assist total tenuous. He also doesn’t shoot very much, which makes it unlikely his goal totals increase, either.

Slavin had a very nice season, and he can help in leagues that count blocked shots. I do think, though, given his team, and his role on that team, that what we saw might be as good as we can expect from him fantasy-wise. He’s a case where the real-world talent just won’t translate to high-end fantasy production. It’s great for Carolina, but bad for fantasy owners.

Scott Darling

For those that want to read my thoughts on the new netminder, click through here. It’s a review of his career, and last seasons, and what it can mean for Carolina this year.

****

Research for next season isn’t necessarily in full force yet – though I’m sure Dobber is already gearing up for next year’s fantasy guide – but I’m already starting to wonder what to do with Brady Skjei in one-year leagues. Production-wise, I’m not sure it’s really appreciated just how good he was given the role he was playing. The list below is all defencemen aged 25 or younger over the last four years to post at least 39 points, which is what Skjei managed in 2016-17, while playing fewer than 1400 total minutes. The list is not long:

If you expand to all ages, you add guys like John Carlson and Kevin Shattenkirk. Those are all names that are coveted to some degree in the fantasy game.

Where I’m at a loss is the approach to drafting him. There are quotes floating around about Alain Vigneault cutting back the ice time of some veterans, but I’ll believe that when it comes to fruition. Also, Skjei will have a difficult time supplanting Ryan McDonagh on the power play. The captain played significantly more minutes on the PP, with no one else really getting a lot of time but those two. Which means for Skjei to get more, McDonagh will have to get less, and that’s a leap of faith to take.

There is no doubt to how talented the rookie blue liner is. I will be the first to admit I was skeptical going into the season, and though it’s just one year, he’s quelled my skepticism. However, it’s a function of productive ice time, and though he should get more overall, I don’t know how much of that will be with the man advantage. At this point, I would be drafting him expecting around a 40-point season unless something changes with his situation.