Ramblings: Rick Nash, Richard Panik, Rangers Blue Line, Caps Collapse (May 12)
Neil Parker
2017-05-12
Rick Nash had a solid postseason. He skated well, as both his speed and power were on display. There were a couple nice goals, and he finished with five points through 12 games. Not impressive, but Nash also played with an injured right knee. He's no longer a go-to scorer, but he's still capable of being a big piece of a contender.
Next season is the final year of his current contract, and he'll hit unrestricted free agency at age 33. Considering he'll have spent six seasons chasing a cup with the Rangers, it's hard to envision Nash returns to New York, and depending on how the Blueshirts fare leading into the 2018 trade deadline, he could be a rental for next year's playoffs.
Of course, Nash has a no-movement and modified no-trade clause, so that is an issue.
Looking ahead, and this is something I suggested last year in this space, Nash projects as an ideal fit for a shut-down line. He can still score in that role, and more and more, teams are realizing that good defensive forwards have to be capable of eating clock in the offensive zone. If chasing a cup is the goal for Nash, he would be best served to take a pay cut and accept a supporting role with a contender. It wouldn't probably be the best-case scenario for his fantasy stock, too.
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It's actually surprising more athletes aren't hurt in similar incidents to how Tyson Barrie was injured. He's been ruled out for the remainder of the World Championships with a leg laceration sustained while wrestling with a teammate in a hotel room.
Barrie was off to a solid start in the tournament, and after a disastrous regular season, this was a chance to end his year on a high note. Unfortunately, this was just another disappointment.
There are going to be plenty of trade rumors surrounding Barrie leading into the expansion draft and NHL Entry Draft, but his $5.5 million salary isn't going to be easy to unload. It's also not out of the question to suggest he isn't worth it, either.
During his two best offensive seasons (2014-15 and 2015-16), Barrie posted horrible Corsi For percentages, and then this past year, he posted a solid 50.0 mark but also started 58.2 of his shifts in the offensive zone. Despite the offensively tilted role, his offensive numbers plummeted. The other concern is that a new location could mean Barrie isn't the go-to offensive defenseman anymore and could see fewer power-play minutes.
Still, his skating ability and proven scoring track record should make him a high priority, and it seems odd the Avalanche are even considering moving Barrie. If he sticks in Colorado, it will be harder to post a notable bounce-back showing, but the right fantasy setting could lead to a monster rebound next year.
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Chicago re-signed Richard Panik to a two-year, $2.8 million contract extension Thursday. The 26-year-old winger turned in a solid season with career-high marks in goals (22), points (44) and shots (155). It was also his first real shot at a full-time opportunity in a top-six role, and he delivered.
There is some sneaky peripheral coverage with Panik, too. He posted a plus-14 rating, recorded 58 PIM and threw 147 body checks. The power-play production is never going to stand out because he'll be relegated to the No. 2 unit. However, nine PP points while averaging 1:42 per game with the man advantage tilts the scales to a degree.
With Chicago's contract situation, it's likely Panik remains in a significant role next year. So, considering he's in the heart of his offensive prime, repeating — and potentially improving on — last season's numbers isn't out of the question. He falls into the boring but reliable category, and his peripheral fantasy numbers will likely go underappreciated in most circles. Often taking a high-floor asset late pays off, especially if you've swung for the fences earlier in your draft.
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Nail Yakupov expects to play in the NHL next season, and the ideal landing spot has to be Las Vegas, right?
Yakupov is talented, can skate and is still just 23 years old. He already has 292 NHL games on his resume, and many players struggle to reach the highest level until they're in the mid-20s. For comparison sake Jonathan Marchessault played four NHL games before logging 45 with Tampa Bay last season at 25.
With a prove-it contract likely, Yakupov should have a chance to make an impact next year. It might not be with St. Louis or Las Vegas, but a team is going to take a calculated gamble on Yakuov, and it could pay off handsomely.
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Alain Vigneault's deployment of his defensemen during the playoffs deserved the criticism it received, and he forecasted some changes for next season. To start, the coach said Dan Girardi and Marc Staal would play a smaller role, and that Brady Skjei is expected to take another step forward and log more minutes. Additionally, The Rangers want to bring another young defenseman into the fold.
Staal is on the books at $5.7 million through the 2020-21 season, and Giradi until 2019-20 at $5.5 million, so it's going to be difficult to work with those salaries. Additionally, Ryan McDonagh, Kevin Klein and Nick Holden are all under contract, so there really isn't room for another blue liner. Adding this young defenseman is going to have to push someone out. It's going to be interesting to see how this unfolds.
Turning to Skjei, he posted a really nice debut campaign with 39 points and a plus-11 rating. His 127 shots and seven power-play points hardly move the fantasy needle, but he did registered 42 PIM and 147 hits. It's also worth noting that averaging just 17:28 of ice time per game hurt his ability to pad his counting stats.
His 1.68 points per 60 minutes ranked 10th among all defenseman with at least 1,000 minutes this past season, so an extended role should enable Skjei to flirt with 40 points again next year. There is obviously upside for better production, but the 23-year-old defenseman was never a high-end scorer at lower levels. Plus, more ice time often means tougher matchups, so while an uptick in minutes might not mean better scoring numbers, it's still a boon for his shots, hits and other secondary counting statistics.
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After declaring Ottawa finished last week, the Senators won consecutive games and face Pittsburgh in the Eastern Conference Finals. In my initial prognostication, I said the series would come down to who was better between Henrik Lundqvist and Erik Karlsson.
Karlsson was better, and part of my Ottawa obituary was under the assumption he was injured. Guy Boucher sitting the captain out of the third period of the Game 4 rout might have saved the season for Ottawa.
Ottawa has better than a punchers chance against the Penguins. Mark Stone is starting to gain some momentum, and Mike Hoffman probably has another level. That Penguins blue line is still a serious concern.
I was surprised the comments weren't littered with oppositing, though. I expected some backlash.
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I agreed with everything Dobber wrote in Wednesday's ramblings about the two Game 7s. However, after watching Washington, and especially Alex Ovechkin, it would have been nice to be able to say that the Capitals' best players were great. That just wasn't the case, though.
Kevin Shattenkirk didn't jive with the Capitals. If he were to re-up with Washington there might still be a slight adjustment period to start next year, but by midseason, he would be acclimatized and moving the needle. He's an excellent player, and his stock wasn't hindered by this playoff run at all.
Nicklas Backstrom was good, and he looked dangerous at times in Game 7, but he wasn't great. He didn't put the team on his back. Backstrom needed to be better.
Ovechkin was hurt, and the severity of the injury is unknown, but pain-numbing injections doesn't have a nice ring to it. Still, he suited up, and unlike Erik Karlsson and Sidney Crosby, Ovechkin scored a single goal through the final four games of the series and was demoted to a secondary role. No. 8 didn't score a power-play goal in Round 2.
Ovechkin finished the playoffs with five goals and eight points through 13 games. He wasn't able to take his game to the next level when it mattered most, again. Maybe that classifies him as a "choker," maybe it doesn't.
Obviously, the Capitals have a number of decisions to make over the coming weeks. How T.J. Oshie and Justin Williams are handled will be telling. Evgeny Kuznetsov, Andre Burakovsky and Dmitry Orlov are all restricted free agents, too. A minor tweak or two is probably all that is needed because this team is built to have another dominant regular season and contend again. The Sharks and Ducks are putting together deep playoff runs in consecutive years with their go-to players older than Ovechkin and Backstrom are.
Settling Ovechkin down during the regular season might be the most important tweak. He played all 82 games and threw 216 body checks. The condensed NHL schedule probably impacted him more than some other players because of his style of play. Why not begin to sit him the second night of some back-to-back sets and occasionally late in the season to ensure he's healthy entering the postseason?
Unless, you're of the belief that Nazem Kadri's hit was the lone cause of his injury.
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The Conference Finals are upon us. Enjoy, Dobberheads.
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nice post Neil,
Regarding NY, Klein was a healthy scratch for most of the playoffs so there is little doubt he is the odd man out. Then again Staal’s game has really deteriorated since the eye injury and concussion from his brothers hit. DG was actually rather effective down the stretch and into the post season. My money is on Staal moving on.
Are they going to buyout Staal? Who is going to take him off their hands?
I still have NYR as a contender. 5th in the East this season 9th in the entire NHL. A ton of youth has been added as NYR has retooled under Gorton, it started before he even took over. The transition started with Kreider 5 years ago & has since added, Miller, Hayes, Fast, Lindberg, Vesey, Zibanejad, Buchnevich & Skjei. None of these players is fully developed yet nor shown their best at the NHL level. Several are close, Kreider & Zibanejad but the best is yet to come starting next season, the rest are just scratching the surface of their NHL potential.
Few teams have had the success that NYR has had in the last 6 years both in the playoffs & regular season. The core outside of these guys is also quite young. The only players on NYR I would consider old are Lundqvist 34, Girardi 33, Nash 32, Glass 33; a UFA & Klein 33; will be bought out. Everyone else is 30 or younger, significantly so.
Not to slight Nash but he was the goat on 2 significant goals in the playoffs. Turn overs that lead directly to important goals. NYR outplayed Ottawa in almost every period of every game. There is tons of blame to go around but none more so than to Vigneault who’s player personal decisions at the wrong time cost another team an opportunity to advance. Essentially benching Smith & Skjei in the 6-5 OT loss from the 3rd period on cost NYR the opportunity to advance. We had the same issues in Vancouver. Nor did I like his line combinations. Glass would never have seen the ice, 2 secondary assists returning to the line up to goat the next game.
These would have been my lines. I would have swapped the RW’s around as required but the LW’s & C’s would have stayed intact.
Miller, Stepan, Zuccarello.
Kredier, Zibanejad, Buchnevich.
Vesey, Hayes, Nash.
Grabner, Lindberg, Fast.
Karlsson > Rangers
Doesn’t matter if they “dominated” most of the series when it mattered most the Sens super star took over and showed real dominance. By producing. Dominating play and not finishing doesn’t mean much when you lose the series does it?
It certainly doesn’t Matt. I make that argument all the time. I don’t care what the fancy stats say. At the end of the day the team that scores the most goals wins. High scoring chances, no chances, the puck going in the net is what matters.
My point was more to the fact I don’t see NYR having to tear it down. Nor Was. These are good teams, minor changes are coming in NYR, a player is going to be lost in expansion, that player has to be replaced either internally or via trade or UFA signing. Was is losing Alzner, Oshie, Shattenkirk & Grubauer or Schmidt in expansion if 1 or both isn’t traded. That’s significant change coming in Was doing nothing.
Both these teams should stay the course & try again next year. If I’m NYR I send Vigneault packing. That’s 4 years coming up short. 1st year as coach lost to LA in the Cup final, next season lost to TB in conference final, last season lost to Pitt the cup champs in the 1st round, this season 2nd round to Ott. This stupid bracket system has to go as well. Why are the 2 best teams in the NHL playing in the 2nd round of the playoffs? Vigneault couldn’t get Vancouver over the hump either. He’s as much to blame as anyone & in my opinion, more than anyone.
I come here for the best content in the business, and the people that comment are much more intelligent than else where. Striker you’re a primo example of this.
Good call, Matt. Thanks for sharing.
As do I Matt. Dobber & the guys do solid work & I like the style of almost all the writers. These are avid fantasy hockey pool freaks who have sound deductive reasoning skills.
I take them to task often but it wouldn’t be any fun if we always agreed. I often take an opposing few just to stimulate the discussion.
I spend a ton of time on Spectorshockey rumor chat board. Some very sound minds there with his followers, most are very mature not all & I have been following Lyle for decades.
Neil glad to have you back for the summer. You need to tell Dobber you need a full time gig as your 1 of favorites, next to the big guy himself. Ha-ha!
Barrie will be fine, should bounce right back to his early career norms. His offensive troubles can be directly related to Colorado’s terrible offense both in goals & on the PP. Dead last in both categories. Pitt’s scored 113 more goals than Colorado, 113, that’s shocking. He’s not being traded, with out him they wouldn’t have manged 165! Colorado will score more than 200 goals next season not many but 205 is my #. I can’t explain what went wrong this year other than this team was devoid of talent.
Colorado couldn’t ice 2 scoring lines but Andrighetto fit in well after coming over from Mtl, Rantanen & Zadarov will be better, Jost & Compher will be full time NHL players moving forward & Grier & Bigras will be added for sure. Nor am I writing Grigoroenko off yet, he is only 23 in 5 days, his mishandling in Buf stunted his development & at 6’3″ my break thru point is 400 NHL regular season games played, he sits at 217.
Colorado is well positioned for expansion they can take on 2 forwards pre expansion draft from teams confronted with losing such. I assume Beauchemin will agree to waive his NMC or be bought out. His NMC is problematic as it would mean they have to protect 8 skaters as opposed to the 7, 3 & 1 formula which better fits their needs. Colorado can also afford to take on Salary before the season starts from teams that need to shed salary.
Colorado will be better at least offensively but isn’t a playoff team or even in the hunt next season. I also assume Duchene will be moved. The return? It will be solid his season was an aberration he should easily fit come back player of the year.
With the signing of Panik, Chicago is now 3.6 million over today’s cap. If the cap rises to 76 mil they are still over by 600K & will be paying someone to take cap hit again this summer. They need to move out about 3 million, who’s going?
as a devout Rangers fan living in NYC here are my two cents on them…
trade Kreider and get a haul, IMO he will never reach his potential as he is going on 27 and showed me no urgency or care in playoffs, he has all the tools to be an absolute force but does not do so. Trade him and get a top 4 defender I am totall yon board with that. Brady Skjei is going to be a star and next season he will surpass forty points no prob, call me biased fine but that kids vision, speed, size, strength and cool calm demeanor under duress have all the makings of a stud. He was also skating north of twenty minutes for two months prior to playoffs he can handle top players they cannot outskate him…period. Staal and Girardi are past their peak but both play very physical style so cannot say this wasn’t foreseen but yes they both need to have reduced roles now. Staal has excellent positioning but is a s*it skater, Klein starting to show his age w/ injuries and G’s body has taken a beating over past decade.We are stuck with em so gotta make the best of em. Nash I do love for he has become a complete player but he better be the last big acquisition they ever make under Gorton, cannot pay a player entering age 28 season that much per year and not expect a significant drop off post 30 years of age. Holden I love and nobody can really speak badly of him as the Rangers swindled him from Colorado and he went above and beyond his expected contributions. If there is one thing I wish I could do personally it would be to go back to the draft they traded Talbot and trade Henrik instead the haul would’ve been immense and the team would’ve been even deeper.
Thanks for sharing. I see what you’re saying in Kreider. He should be capable of more. If he had more ice time, maybe that would change. AV rolls his lines pretty evenly.
I’m not optimistic that Yakupov can ever reach his potential in the NHL, but New Jersey and Vancouver both need to take a chance on a young, skilled, inexpensive forward like him to increase their scoring. Colorado might also prove a good fit.
Good call.