Predators Close In on Final, Playoff Surprise Players

Pontus Aberg’s first goal of the playoffs turned out to be the game-winning goal for the Predators, who take a 3-2 series lead over the Ducks with their 3-1 win on Saturday.

In spite of the goal, Aberg played just 11 minutes of this game, which is right around his normal icetime during the playoffs (when he has even been in the lineup). But with great speed and a solid scoring touch (31 goals in 56 AHL games this season), Aberg demonstrates the kind of depth that this fast-paced Predator team has. A Predator team that is now just one win away from its first Stanley Cup Final.

For more on Aberg, here’s his Dobber Prospects profile. He’s the seventh-ranked prospect on the Predators.
 

Acute compartment syndrome often develops over time after impact; it can be limb- and life-threatening. Again, Johansen is doing well now.

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) May 20, 2017

Terrifying stuff about Ryan Johansen for sure, especially with what we saw happen to Craig Cunningham. Even though the original timetable for his recovery was 2-3 months, this is the kind of injury in which the Preds should err on the side of caution. So you’ll want to keep an eye on his status before training camp. More importantly, let’s hope for the best regarding Johansen’s overall health.
 

Took him a while but he made it @KevinFiala22 pic.twitter.com/N5NV3rSBDd

— Ryan Johansen (@RyanJohansen19) May 21, 2017

The player most impacted by the absence of Johansen and Mike Fisher up the middle was Colton Sissons, who recorded a power-play assist late in the second period on Colin Wilson’s goal. Sissons saw 19:24 of icetime in Game 5, which included 2:07 of power-play time. Sissons entered the game with no points in the seven games before Saturday. But he seems capable of handling the load based on his play earlier in the playoffs (six points in his first seven playoff games).

Even though he was held without a point, Calle Jarnkrok also took on more responsibility with 19 minutes of icetime and 1:42 of power-play time.

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The Ducks also had their share of storylines for this game. The most significant from a hockey standpoint saw John Gibson leave the game after first period with a lower-body injury. Jonathan Bernier was okay at best, stopping 16 of 18 shots over the final two periods. Take this for what it’s worth, but Gibson says he will be able to play in Game 6. With the Ducks’ season hanging in the balance, it would take a fairly serious injury for Gibson not to start on Monday night.

Rickard Rakell also missed this game for the Ducks with a lower-body injury. The Ducks lean much more heavily on their top forwards that the Predators do, so an absence of a top-6 forward could impact the Ducks more. Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, Ryan Kesler, and Jakob Silfverberg all played at least 20 minutes in Game 5.

Earlier in the day, Getzlaf was fined for the use of a homophobic slur. Andrew Shaw was suspended one game for a similar offense during last season’s playoffs, while Blue Jays outfielder Kevin Pillar was suspended two games earlier this week. So does Getzlaf get away without a suspension because of the importance of this game and his importance to his team? I thought the precedent had already been set. Maybe the wheel of justice also applies to homophobic slurs.

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If you don’t normally watch hockey in the morning, then you might have missed a doozie with the Canada/Russia semifinal game at the World Hockey Championship. Russia scored two goals in the second period to take a 2-0 lead. But Canada stormed back in the third period with three goals, including Nathan MacKinnon’s game-tying goal and Ryan O’Reilly’s eventual game-winning goal with three minutes left in regulation. Canada will play Sweden for the gold medal on Sunday.

O’Reilly stood out to me in this game as a two-way force. I wonder how much Colorado’s sudden plunge in the standings has to do with his departure.

On the other hand, a few Avalanche players are doing just fine at the moment.  
 

Nathan MacKinnon, Matt Duchene, Tyson Barrie and Calvin Pickard have won more games in the last two weeks than in the previous three months.

— Darren Haynes (@DarrenWHaynes) May 20, 2017

This night-and-day success is the most apparent for MacKinnon. He currently leads all Canadian scorers with 14 points (6g-8a) in just 9 games. Over March and April he scored 12 points (4g-8a), but it took him 21 games to do it. Maybe it’s the talent around him on Team Canada, but this is why you shouldn’t give up on him so quickly. Especially since Colorado has nowhere to go but up over the next few seasons. And just remember: He’s still only 21.  

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Which player's performance in the playoffs has surprised you the most?

— Ian Gooding (@Ian_Gooding) May 19, 2017

The big stage of the playoffs can make a player stand out when he would normally go unnoticed. For a young player like Matt Murray, it can be a preview of what’s to come. His teammate Jake Guentzel appears to be on a similar path to Murray, given Guentzel’s ability to click with Sidney Crosby.

But do we make of veterans that appear to be trending downward, at least in fantasy leagues? Is the playoff success also a positive sign for next season, or should it be brushed off as a short-term run of success? We tend not to give veterans past a certain age the benefit of the doubt. Should we?  

Pekka Rinne

You don’t get to say that you don’t like Rinne for fantasy purposes, yet also state that you believed that the Predators could make it this far. You would be contradicting yourself, because teams do not make it this far into the playoffs without great goaltending. And Rinne has given the Preds exactly that, with a playoff-leading 1.62 goals-against average and .942 save percentage. The truth is, though, that Rinne might be better than you give him credit for.

Among goalies that have played at least 420 minutes in 2016-17 (64 goalies), Rinne finished 19^th in save percentage and 20^th in goals-against average. If you decrease the sample size to allow for goalies that played at least 40 games (32 goalies), Rinne finished 12^th in both goals-against average and save percentage. To put it another way, in 12-team leagues you could do better than Rinne for a G1, but you should be very happy if he is your G2. The 34-year-old Rinne’s 2.42 GAA and .918 SV% in 2016-17 were actually improvements from his 2015-16 totals (2.48 GAA, .908 SV%).

Marc-Andre Fleury

At least Rinne was worth retaining on your fantasy team for the entire season. A goalie with a goals-against average above 3.00 should clearly be on your “Do Not Own” list, while his .909 save percentage was only marginally better. But to Mike Clifford’s point that goals-against average is a team stat and save percentage is more of a reflection on the goalie’s ability, perhaps it was safe to assume that the Pens would be okay with Fleury between the pipes for the start of the playoffs. That should also mean Fleury is a better goalie than what we saw during the regular season.

Matt Murray has since taken over in net, so it’s possible that we’ve seen the last of Fleury in a game for the Penguins with the expansion draft looming. It’s easy to assume he’ll be heading to Vegas, but he could land elsewhere. Not to put the cart before the horse, but that could place him as a lower-tier starting goalie. Could Fleury’s playoff performance be enough for Vegas to lock him in as the goalie they build their team around?

Something that’s not mentioned enough is that Fleury could very well be back in Pittsburgh next season, as he still has two years left on his contract. But even though Fleury comes with a $5.75 million cap hit, this job now belongs to Murray. Fleury would simply be an expensive backup whose fantasy value would be minimal, while his fantasy value in non-auction cap leagues would be virtually nil.

Bobby Ryan

In last Sunday’s Ramblings, I discussed why I think Ryan is a potential comeback player for 2016-17. To add to that, articles like this one on the Golden Knights expansion draft (which I think is a very interesting and thorough read, by the way) have Ryan as a potential Knights claim. Salary (five more years at $7.25 million) might be a reason.

Aside from Erik Karlsson, has there been any one player more instrumental to the Senators’ success than Ryan? His 14 points in 16 games is second on the Sens in playoff scoring. You could make an argument that Nashville and Pittsburgh would go deep into the playoffs, which would make Rinne and Fleury logical adds to your playoff pool. But Ryan? Very few assumed he would be a top-10 playoff scorer, let alone that the Senators would be two wins away from a Stanley Cup Final appearance.

That’s part of the fun with the Stanley Cup playoffs, though. There’s always a surprise. Congratulations if you picked Ryan in your playoff pool at the start of the playoffs, as you may have just won. Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews owners? Not so much.

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For more fantasy hockey information, follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding.