Rick reviews his 10 fearless forecasts from the fall. How did he fare?

It’s time to review my 10 Fearless Forecasts column from this fall. The goal isn’t just to see how my bold forecasts fared, but also to learn fantasy lessons from the outcomes.

What I’ll do is rate each prediction as either a hit (i.e., I was correct), a miss (I was incorrect), a near miss (I wasn’t correct, but either I didn’t miss by much or was onto something despite being incorrect), or a major miss (I was way, way off). From there, I’ll try to figure out what went right or wrong and assess post-mortem fantasy takeaways. Let’s dive in!

Forecast #1 – There will be at least eight “35/35” players this season

RESULT – There were only four (Sidney Crosby, Nikita Kucherov, Vladimir Tarasenko, Brad Marchand)

RATING = Near Miss

I know what you’re probably thinking – how could something be a near miss when only half as many players as I predicted actually ended up hitting the mark? Because two players missed qualifying by one goal (David Pastrnak, Patrick Kane), another by two goals (Alex Ovechkin), and another by three assists (Max Pacioretty). Beyond that, two players (Evgeni Malkin (33 goals and 39 assists in 69 games) and Steven Stamkos (nine goals and 11 assists in 17 games)) likely would’ve met both criteria if they hadn’t been injured.

What fantasy lessons can we learn?

It turns out not only has just one player posted 35+ goals and 35+ assists in three of the last four seasons (Crosby), but a mere four (Tarasenko, Tyler Seguin, Joe Pavelski, Jamie Benn) did it twice, with none of those four having done so in each of the last two seasons. In other words, a lot must go right for a player to be a potent scorer who checks both goals and assists boxes in the same season, and even more for a player to do so time and time again.

I also noticed that in 2013-14, 14-15, and 15-16, there were either exactly three of four “Cy Young” type players who scored 30+ goals in a season where they also produced at least ten more goals than assists. In 2016-17, however, the number jumped to six (Auston Matthews, Jeff Skinner, Anders Lee, T.J. Oshie, Rickard Rakell, and Patrick Eaves). Given that it’s far from a certainly for a player to repeatedly provide 35/35 production, poolies might be justified in shying away from drafting or trading for those types of forwards, who of course will come at a steep price. Instead, they could use early picks on a stud goalie or defenseman, who tend to have more consistent outputs; for skaters, they can assemble a mix of scoring from a less costly goal-heavy player plus an assists heavy player (who are nearly always bargains) plus more tried and true, yet also less expensive, 55-60 point balanced scorers. After all, in the end it’s about winning in your league, not necessarily the name value of the players you use to get there.

Forecast #2 = Neither Shea Weber nor Roman Josi will finish within the top ten in defenseman scoring

RESULT – Josi finished tied for 10th, and Weber tied for 18th

RATING – Near Miss

Had Josi finished with just one fewer point, or John Klingberg with one more, this prediction would’ve come true. In fairness though, Josi missed ten games; so had he played in all 82, it wouldn’t have even been a close call.

What fantasy lessons can we learn?

At least some measure of success for skaters can come from playing with the same person/people for a long time. In turn, this means if they’re removed from the familiarity of a situation it could have negative results, especially for less talented players.

Knowing this, be careful about drafting or trading for players who could be getting “carried” by a teammate with whom they frequently line up or are paired with. Also, if a player who’s been in a longstanding defensive pairing or forward line changes teams, watch for adverse effects. Sometimes the negatives could only be temporary (after a very slow start, Josi finished with 27 points in his final 30 games), while in other instances it could stretch through the season and perhaps become a new normal (Weber’s 42 points was his second lowest total for a season with 75+ games played).

Forecast #3 – Five Lightning forwards (plus Victor Hedman) will score 60+ points

RESULT – Only Kucherov and Victor Hedman hit the mark

RATING – Miss

Why not a big miss here? Because not only was Stamkos averaging more than a point per game before he was lost for the season, but three other forwards (Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson, Jonathan Drouin) had 55-60 point scoring paces. Plus, I nailed it on Hedman, who exploded for 72 points.

What fantasy lessons can we learn?

One injury (in this case, to Stamkos) can have fantasy ripple effects on an entire team. While Stamkos going down more easily paved the way for Kucherov to make unsurprising strides, it also caused Tampa to rethink the PP, which had featured right shooting Anton Stralman to set up right shooting Stamkos. The result was Hedman getting far more PP time, where he shined (33 PPPts, or three more than in his last three seasons combined). Also, it enabled Brayden Point to get additional top six time, pushing Alex Killorn into the bottom six and perhaps enabling the team not to re-sign one of Johnson, Drouin, or Palat, who are all RFAs this summer. In short, when an NHL team sees one of its key players miss extended time, focus carefully on the ripple effects, both positive (like with Hedman and Point here) and negative (in this case, Killorn and Stralman).

As for the prediction itself, the results validate that balanced yet high scoring on a team is indeed very difficult to achieve, and thus banking on it happening is unlikely to yield positive results. In turn, loading up on many skaters from one team is the ultimate feast or famine approach, which most likely will lead to you going hungry rather than ending up with a stuffed belly.

Forecast #4 – No Flyer forward will score 60+ points

RESULT – Only Jakub Voracek achieved the threshold, and barely (61 points)

RATING – Near Miss

Here too I barely missed, and can take some pride in the fact that other than Radko Gudas, pretty much every Flyer skater who would’ve been drafted in fantasy leagues saw his point total drop from 2015-16 to 2016-17.

What fantasy lessons can we learn?

First and foremost, coaching styles have a real impact on player production. If a coach emphasizes a lower tempo game, or spreads ice time too evenly, all but the most skilled players are likely to see their scoring suffer accordingly. Couple that with players who either are post peak (Claude Giroux), mired in a sophomore slump (Shayne Gostisbehere), looking like a one season wonder (Jakub Voracek), seeming less likely with each season to be able to make a leap (Brayden Schenn), or solid but unspectacular (Wayne Simmonds), and you get a recipe for fantasy disappointment. Remember – when predicting how a player or even an entire team might fare in fantasy, don’t overlook reality.

Forecast #5 – No goalie who appears in 50+ games will have a GAA under 2.20

RESULT – Three goalies met the criteria (Sergei Bobrovsky, Brayden Holtby, Peter Budaj)

RATING – Miss

It turns out I wasn’t onto something with my theory about World Cup hangovers plus an offensive uptick disrupting the goalie norm. Then again, there were fewer 50+ appearance goalies who posted a 2.40 or less GAA than either of the two previous seasons, and the mere six 50+ appearance goalies with a SV% of .920 or better for 2016-17 was lower than any season since 2008-09, so goalies were somewhat more human overall, making this just a miss rather than a major miss.

What fantasy lessons can we learn?

Much like the 35 goal, 35 assist skater fraternity, the sub-2.20 GAA club is one where it’s difficult to gain membership and to achieve time and time again; however, when the dust settles on each season, there will seemingly always be guys who perform well enough to be there. And we can see from the list of for 2016-17, it can happen because a goalie is among the best in the world (Holtby), or has great skill and manages to elude injury problems and other past issues (Bobrovsky), or even steps into the ideal team situation (Budaj). In other words, goalie success in fantasy can be the result of individual or situational greatness, so be on the lookout for both.

Forecast #6 – Jake Muzzin will outpoint Drew Doughty by at least 20%

RESULT – Doughty’s scoring came back to earth a bit (from 51 points in 2015-16 to 44 in 2016-17) but Muzzin bombed (falling from 40 points in 2015-16 to just 28 in 2016-17)

RATING – Major Miss

What fantasy lessons can we learn?

While I was correct that Doughty’s 2015-16 numbers were unsustainable, I used convoluted logic to talk myself into Muzzin being due to explode. Yet another reminder that while there’s a place in fantasy for hunches (e.g., late round picks, younger prospects), safe and grounded logic is what helps you prevail.

Forecast #7 – Jonathan Bernier will win more games than Petr Mrazek

RESULT – Bernier had 21 wins, which bested Mrazek’s 18

RATING – Hit

What fantasy lessons can we learn?

It’s true that Bernier benefitted from a late season injury to John Gibson, yet the concern all along was Gibson fast approaching band-aid boy status, and sure enough he missed time to injury in 2016-17. So the first lesson is a simple one which I hope avid readers of this column and this site as a whole would already know well — once a band-aid boy, more often than not always a band-aid boy.

The second lesson is one most of us also realize, yet – much like I did with the Muzzin prediction – we nevertheless often ignore, namely to resist the urge to fall in love with potential since in doing so you can convince yourself to ignore very real warning signs. In this case, although Mrazek looked very good in 2015-16 overall, he finished poorly. Plus, Detroit as a team was poised for a step back, which ended up happening. Meanwhile, Bernier played well to end 2015-16 after a humbling trip to the minors, plus was going to a smaller market much like in LA where he’d tasted success in the past, not to mention being set to back up an injury-prone goalie. In short, avoid putting up blinders on players – you have to look at them from every angle, warts and all.

Forecast #8 – Nikolaj Ehlers will outscore at least one of Connor McDavid or Jack Eichel

RESULT – Ehlers outpointed Eichel (64 to 57), but played in 21 more games

RATING – Hit, but not entirely

What fantasy lessons can we learn?

I can’t give myself a full “hit” rating, since I prefaced my original column by saying forecasts were based on players suiting up for 75+ games, which of course Eichel didn’t. Yet still – Ehlers had a bigger point per game scoring jump than either of the other two, so I was onto something.

How was I able to sniff out the jump from Ehlers? For one, he was coming off a strong finish to the prior season, which serves as a reminder to look beyond full year totals in order to judge who was a lot better (or worse) than they might appear at first glance. Look at the Josi example from above – he scored 27 of his 49 points in his final 30 games, indicating he’s likely back to his old self despite season-long totals which would suggest otherwise. The Ehlers situation also had a lot to do with his opportunity and team, as he was in a true sweet spot of having a top six role seemingly locked down plus being on a squad that was set to vastly improve. Yet again this is a reminder that a player’s actual situation quite often trumps his potential, however good that might be.

Forecast #9 – Tyson Barrie will finish within the top four in NHL defensemen scoring

RESULT – Barrie ended with 38 points in 74 games, which tied for 32nd in rearguard scoring

RATING – Major Miss

What fantasy lessons can we learn?

Much like with Muzzin, I let myself be convinced that a potential scenario would happen, which in this case was the firing of Patrick Roy supposedly allowing Avs players to explode and thus resulting in Barrie, the most offensively-talented Colorado rearguard, reaping the benefit. I was wrong, big time.

The key here is although each season sees a team or two majorly surprise in a good way (with 2016-17 being no different, from the Sabres leading the NHL in PP conversion to Toronto making the kind of leap most thought wouldn’t happen – if at all – until another couple of years down the road), usually things unfold similarly to years past. In other words, if you bank on seismic change, you’ll hit a home run every now and then, but far more often than not will be disappointed. Sure – there’s room for calculated risk taking or banking on logical changes (see the Ehlers example above), but you have to balance that with embracing the norm.

Forecast #10 – Andrei Vasilevskiy……will win the Conn Smythe…..while playing for St. Louis….against Tampa Bay!

RESULT – It was Ben Bishop who was traded, landing in LA (who didn’t make the playoffs); meanwhile, Tampa held onto Vasilevskiy (and also didn’t make the playoffs), while the Blues stuck with Jake Allen and advanced to round two before losing to Nashville

RATING – Major Miss, since although it was an outlandish prediction it was based on logic which ended up being flawed

What fantasy lessons can we learn?

I like to end my forecasts columns with a Rube Goldberg-like prediction, and 2016-17 was no exception. But embedded in the outlandish forecast were two pieces of logic which – at least in this case – both ended up being wrong, first that when faced with a two-headed goalie monster consisting of a proven veteran (Bishop) and a young upstart (Vasilevskiy) a team will stick with the more tried and tested veteran, which they didn’t, and second, that placing pressure on a young, injury-prone goalie (Allen) wouldn’t work and would result in the team needing to bring in a rental, yet lo and behold St. Louis showed patience with Allen despite a shaky season.

The main lesson is that the cap matters, since if Tampa didn’t have to sign several key RFAs this summer they might have opted to indeed keep the more proven Bishop. So be sure to continue to pay attention to implications the cap could have on your league, even if it’s not specifically a cap league. Also, when a team picks a goalie to run with (as St. Louis did with Allen over Brian Elliott) and doesn’t have a viable or well paid back-up, they’ll tend to stick with the “chosen one” for better or worse.

SUMMARY

Yet again I had far more misses than hits, although in my defense these were “fearless” forecasts, just like the column’s title said. The goal wasn’t to make safe predictions, since not only is there no fun in that but also it wouldn’t get us to think in new or different ways. Plus, right or wrong we can go back like I did today and get a sense for what did and didn’t work, and why, and draw from that. Hopefully you enjoyed this full circle exercise – look for another batch of fearless forecasts in the fall.