Playoff underperformers: Eberle, J.T. Miller, and more…

For the teams that are still playing, and for the teams that were able to win at least one playoff round, many of their players have enjoyed the playoffs statistically.

But for some players, their team’s success has been bittersweet when they compare their personal contributions. Teams that give a lot of rope to slumping players may find themselves eliminated from the playoffs in short order, so some of these players were forced down the lineup as their teams could not afford to be patient with them.

As I’ve said before, the playoffs can provide a larger sample size, although we shouldn’t always put a lot of stock into playoff performance. But it’s worth evaluating whether a player’s playoff slump could carry forward into next season – and beyond.
 

Which player has been the most disappointing playoff scorer?

— Ian Gooding (@Ian_Gooding) May 27, 2017

Mike Fisher

How he got here: 14 GP, 0 G, 0 A, -1

Fisher actually had a bounce-back regular season, increasing his point total by 19 at age 36. He has been sidelined recently with a concussion, but those playoff poolies who have been all in on a long Predator playoff run have also been wondering when the points will start to come in. Especially with top-line center Ryan Johansen out of the lineup.

My general theory on injuries to key players: Short term, a team can find a way to make do without the player. Long term, the loss is felt more and more. The Predators simply don’t have the depth at center to make up for the loss of Johansen. So although Fisher boasts a high faceoff win percentage (54.92%), his return to the lineup and any additional scoring production he can provide will go a long way to help the Predators in this series.   

As for next season’s drafts, a deep center position shouldn’t create a whole lot of demand for Fisher. He should be treated as more of a stopgap option than anything.

J.T. Miller

How he got here: 12 GP, 0 G, 3 A, +1

After a breakout 56-point season, much more was expected out of Miller, who like everyone in this group has not scored a goal during the playoffs. By the end of the playoffs, Miller had fallen to the fourth line with Oscar Lindberg and Tanner Glass.

Whether this slump carries over to next season may depend on where Miller is slotted into the lineup, which could ultimately affect his confidence level. The Rangers boast a deep top 9 with a lot of similarly valued players, so line combinations could be simply luck of the draw or who is hot at the moment.

I know that strong 5-on-5 play can lead to more power-play time. But if a player doesn’t receive enough power-play time, that should be concerning to those in multicategory leagues that count power-play points. Only 7 of Miller’s 56 points came with the man advantage (9^th on the Rangers), and he averaged just 1:27 of power-play time per game (12^th on the Rangers).

Another possible red flag is Miller’s shot total. Although he has maintained a 16 percent shooting accuracy over the past two seasons, he has also taken just 132 and 135 shots over each of the past two seasons. If that shooting percentage declines without a corresponding increase in shots, Miller will fail to reach 20 goals for the first time in three seasons.

Miller is a better player than he showed during the playoffs. But it would be a stretch to assume further point increases, while some of his peripherals (21 PIM also worth mentioning) will leave you wanting more.

For more on Miller’s poor playoff performance, check out Mike Murphy’s article at FanRag Sports.

Miller’s teammate Chris Kreider could receive some (dis)honorable mention here with just four points in 12 playoff games.

Conor Sheary

How he got here: 16 GP, 0 G, 4 A, -6

Sheary was a healthy scratch for Games 5 and 6 before replacing Josh Archibald. He still looked hesitant at times, but recording an assist on Chris Kunitz’s first goal of the game will likely help his confidence. Sheary and Kunitz started the game on the fourth line, but they managed to take shifts with Sidney Crosby as the game went on (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette).

Sheary’s fall from his breakout regular season has been noticeable, as I mentioned in the Wednesday Ramblings (hopefully you got a chance to read it if you weren’t debating the Senators’ attendance situation). Based on the difference between the regular season and the playoff production, there has to be a huge gap between the floor and the ceiling for Sheary. That means you could get the kind of season Chris Kunitz had in 2014 (35 goals), or the kind of season Kunitz had last season (nine goals). I’m not willing to overpay based on the probability that he “might” play on the Crosby line.

Jordan Eberle

How he got here: 13 GP, 0 G, 2 A, -6

Investing in Eberle for playoff pools seems like a wasted opportunity. Even though the Oilers didn’t make it out of the second round, there was lots to feel good about for a young team that finally broke into the playoff bracket after a decade.

Eberle’s regular season wasn’t his best (20 goals and 51 points in 82 games). So did his playoff slump actually start during the regular season? Not exactly. Eberle ended the season with a four-game point streak, which included a hat trick in his final regular-season game.

A closer look at his shooting percentage reveals that he may not have had as much puck luck as he had in previous seasons. His 9.6 percent accuracy in 2016-17 was five points down from the previous season and nine points down from his career high. Plus his 208 shots taken was his highest total over the past three seasons. As for the playoffs? A total of 22 shots taken in 13 games. A total of zero goals.

Oilers insiders believes that the Oilers will trade Eberle, now that Andrej Sekera will be out six-to-nine months and Kris Russell still hasn’t been re-signed. In fact, one Oilers analyst suggested that Eberle’s practice habits were lackluster and that he should be the player the Oilers trade away.

Oilers’ writer David Staples, who also believes that Eberle should be traded, has at least addressed the reasons that Eberle should not be traded. One of the reasons mentioned that analytics people will appreciate is the number of Grade A scoring chances Eberle had relative to most of his teammates. The risk for the Oilers is that Eberle can post better numbers than he did in 2016-17, particularly in the playoffs. There is an element of truth to that, which fantasy owners can pull from.
 

The 9 top reasons the Edmonton Oilers should NOT trade away Jordan Eberle | Edmonton Journal https://t.co/kn4Qyk7LTr

— David Staples (@dstaples) May 26, 2017

Like Matt Duchene in Colorado, Eberle experienced a down season in spite of being in what should be the prime of his career. I won’t examine Duchene’s number right now, but the thought is that a change of scenery could benefit both players. Whether or not he is an Oiler next season, Eberle could be due for at least a minor bounceback. In other words, don’t buy too much into the hype that Eberle is on a decline.     

A (dis)honorable mention could be made to Eberle’s teammate Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, who didn’t score a goal either during the playoffs. But Nugent-Hopkins still played an important role as a center in taking faceoffs and killing penalties in the middle six. Overall, the Nuge appears to be evolving into a better real-life player than fantasy player.  

*

Some news and notes:

To no one’s surprise, Erik Karlsson will have an MRI and x-rays next week on his heel, which has two hairline fractures (NHL.com). Unless something much worse is diagnosed, don’t expect this injury to affect him into next season. In the meantime, we have all summer to debate whether Karlsson or Brent Burns should be the top-ranked fantasy defenseman.

This week’s 30 Thoughts by Elliotte Friedman. To me, #6 was the thought that is the most relevant for fantasy purposes. It looks like Sami Vatanen and Hampus Lindholm could both miss the start of next season as they recover from torn labrums. With a defenseman being possibly lost to Vegas or a trade, the door could open for both Brandon Montour and Shea Theodore to at least start the season in Anaheim.

Tobias Rieder recently underwent ankle surgery and will need 8-12 weeks to recover. He should be ready for the start of training camp (NBC Sports).

The Canucks appear interested in bringing Ryan Miller back next season and don’t seem interested in trading Alex Edler or Chris Tanev (Vancouver Province). As much as the Canucks are now on the rebuild, Jim Benning just can’t seem to let go of the idea of trying to compete for a playoff spot. But I guess the draft lottery won’t do the Canucks any favors, either.

How about an outdoor game at the U.S. Naval Academy between the Capitals and the Leafs? Looks like it might happen (Sportsnet).

*

For the Canuck fans or for anyone who has more than a passing interest in the draft, Dobber’s very own Cam Robinson appeared on TSN 1040 on Friday morning discussing who the Canucks should pick at 5^th overall.
 

Jumped on the Bro Jake show this morning to talk #Canucks targets at fifth and 33rd overall. @TSN1040 https://t.co/XdlFZtBmUT

— /Cam Robinson/ (@CrazyJoeDavola3) May 26, 2017

Stepping aside from the Canucks, it’s interesting how Cam has Miro Heiskanen ahead of Nolan Patrick. He’s not the first prospects expert that I’ve noticed with that ranking. With Patrick’s injury-plagued past season, I wouldn’t be shocked if he falls to #3. Or still goes first overall. Draft day will be loads of fun.

*

For more fantasy hockey information, follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding.