Stanley Cup Final Preview, plus more…

My topic for today is very simple. There’s an important playoff series starting today, so I might as well write about it.

This matchup between Nashville and Pittsburgh promises to be an exciting one. Both teams are fast-paced and fun to watch, and right now this series has the potential to go the distance. Check back shortly if we haven’t already posted our Dobber writers’ predictions for the Stanley Cup Final winners and number of games, as well as the Conn Smythe winner. I’ll give you mine along with the reasons here shortly.

I’ll admit that entering the playoffs, I did not see either team making it this far (some expert I am). I predicted that the Kris Letang injury would be enough to push the Capitals ahead of the Penguins in their inevitable matchup, considering how integral Letang was to their Stanley Cup last season. On the other side, I also predicted that the Blackhawks would take care of business, which would start with Nashville.
 

I didn't predict this at all, but there's something there with the Predators. Could be the team to come out of the West.

— Ian Gooding (@Ian_Gooding) April 18, 2017

Even after Game 2 in the Chicago/Nashville series, a game where the score was one-sided in Nashville’s favor, I thought the Blackhawks could still pull out that series. But because of the Predators’ ability to use their speed to push the Hawks to the wall, I was sold by Game 3 that the Predators could make it to the final. I’m not trying to gloat, but my eyes were telling me something that analytics had projected during the regular season.

But like the Penguins with Letang, the Predators will be missing a key piece that helped them reach this point. The Ryan Johansen injury didn’t slow the Preds down in either Game 5 or Game 6. Colton Sissons’ hat trick made people forget about Johansen, at least during Game 6. But it’s going to be a tall order to expect him to make up for Johansen’s production, since he scored just ten points in 58 games during the regular season. Same with Calle Jarnkrok, who scored 31 points in 81 games and was held pointless in the Anaheim series until he recorded an assist during Game 6. Mike Fisher could return for Game 1, but he’s been held without a point during the entire playoffs.

The Penguins could receive a boost with former Predator Patric Hornqvist a game-time decision for Game 1 after missing the past six games. There’s actually talk that Jake Guentzel could be the healthy scratch. That seems very odd that a player that is leading the playoffs in goals could be a healthy scratch, but Guentzel has been held without a goal in eight consecutive games (no goals in the Ottawa series) and without a point in his past three games. The playoffs are all about what you can do right now, and Guentzel is starting to learn the same lessons that Conor Sheary has.

Speaking of Hornqvist, I find his trade to Pittsburgh for James Neal three summers ago to be an interesting storyline. I figured at the time that Hornqvist received a big boost, while Neal’s fantasy value took a major hit. Since the trade:
 

Lest anyone forget… #Pens #NHL pic.twitter.com/IPRYJsBcJn

— Brian Metzer (@Brian_Metzer) May 29, 2017

Can we say that everything turned out just fine? Hornqvist has the advantage in points, but Neal has more goals.

The common narrative seems to be that the series will come down to the Penguins’ forwards versus the Predators’ defense and the wall that has been Pekka Rinne. To put it another way, you have a team of destiny in the Predators facing the battle-tested defending Stanley Cup champions.

The Penguins have overcome a myriad of injuries to all kinds of players only to win when it matters the most. Rest may not be as much of a factor as it has been in other series, as the Penguins have had three days off after their Game 7 double-overtime win. Repeating in the salary cap era would be quite an accomplishment.

The Predators have been a force too powerful for anyone in the Western Conference to overcome. Fan support doesn’t directly affect the scoresheet, but props to Nashville for showing non-traditional hockey markets (and some traditional hockey markets) how a seventh man can give a team an extra push.

Expect a long, entertaining series that will go the distance. Penguins in 7, because I think the high-end skill of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin is the difference. Malkin for the Conn Smythe.

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According to John Shannon of Sportsnet, the Washington Capitals are about to lock up T.J. Oshie well ahead of free agency. This signing is a bit of a surprise to me, considering that the Caps are tight against the cap and Oshie was set for a big payday. There’s some discussion on this one in the Forum about whether an Oshie re-signing would hurt Andre Burakovsky’s value. The general consensus seems to be that it won’t, assuming that the Capitals don’t re-sign Justin Williams.

Speaking of the Capitals, Dmitry Orlov has recently been chatting with CSKA of the KHL, according to CSN Mid-Atlantic. The author of this piece didn’t sound too concerned about Orlov possibly jumping ship. But even with the KHL contracting by two teams, the lure of playing back home and for Russia in the Olympics could give Orlov something to think about.

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On the eve of the Stanley Cup Final, here’s a clip from P.K. Subban’s interview on E:60.

On the documentary (but not this clip), John Scott had some less than kind words about Subban. Has your opinion changed on All-Star hero Scott as a result of his comments?

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Congratulations to the Windsor Spitfires on their Memorial Cup victory. There was plenty of future NHL talent on display in this game alone. I’ll admit that I’m not a huge fan of the host team automatically being granted a berth in the tournament, but I think I would be if there were more teams involved. A couple years ago I wrote about a proposal to improve the Memorial Cup for Today’s Slapshot.

Since I forgot to a few days ago, I’ll give props to Dylan Strome, who was named MVP of the tournament with seven goals and 11 points in just five games (with seven of those points coming in one game!) Strome is currently the fourth-ranked player in Dobber’s Top 200 Fantasy Hockey Prospect Forwards. Since he last posted his rankings on May 16, and Strome’s first game was on May 20, let’s see if Strome’s standout Mem Cup warrants a further increase. With future teammate Clayton Keller at number two on the list, the Coyotes’ future appears bright.

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Enjoy the Stanley Cup Final everyone!

For more fantasy hockey information, follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding.