Top 10 Playoff-Driven Value Changes

Tom Collins

2017-06-05

Postseason success and failure for an individual player doesn’t have any impact on next season, but they will have a ton of impact on a player’s perceived value in your fantasy leagues.

Remember last year when Robby Fabbri had 15 points in 20 playoff games and many thought he was a shoo-in for a big breakout season? That didn’t happen. Fabbri’s value was at an all-time high last summer and you would have been smart to sell at that time if you were able to get a good return.

Below you’ll find 10 players whose value have increased or decreased based on this postseason. It’s important to note that a bad performance won’t impact the value of certain players. Max Pacioretty was awful, but many still believe he can be a 30-goal, 60-point player next year. Braden Holtby had appalling numbers but he will still be drafted as a top-two goalie in the fall.

 

10. Corey Perry

This postseason is the continuation of a downward spiral for Perry. While he scored a couple of timely playoff goals, he didn’t score enough. He had four goals and 11 points in 17 playoff games. He also averaged 17:52 of ice time, which doesn’t seem that bad until you realize that Rickard Rakell, Jakob Silfverberg, Ryan Kesler and Ryan Getzlaf all averaged anywhere from one to five minutes more than Perry. No fantasy owner could have been impressed with the Anaheim winger’s performance.

 

9. Bobby Ryan

Ryan quickly put doubt into the minds of fantasy general managers. He struggled this season with 25 points in 62 games as he battled injuries and a change in the Sens’ system. But then he put up 15 points in 19 playoff games and now there’s debate will he be fantasy relevant again (spoiler alert: he won’t). There’s also debate about whether the Senators will now protect him instead of leaving him available for expansion. Ryan’s value has definitely spiked whether he starts next season in Vegas or Ottawa.

 

8. Jakob Silfverberg

Silfverberg’s value will always increase immediately after his playoffs are finished and will then slowly ebb back down to normal when people realize he’s not a great regular season fantasy asset. As Dobber mentions in his pinned tweet:

Keep in mind that his career high for the regular season is 49 points. This year, Silfverberg had nine goals and 14 points in 17 playoff games. He is the king when it comes to regular season mediocrity and postseason excellence.

 

7. Henrik Lundqvist

I’ve been trying to trade Lundqvist in one of my dynasty leagues for more than a year. I’m pretty particular when if comes to making trades, but I was thinking I was going to have to start lowering my offers quite a bit after Lundqvist’s worst season ever as he finished with a .910 GAA and a 2.74 GAA. Lundqvist was excellent in the postseason with a .927 GAA and 2.25 GAA and he held Montreal to 11 goals in six games. I will still probably have to lower my asking price in my dynasty league. Just not as much as I thought two months ago.

 

6. Shea Theodore

Theodore’s stock should be rising this summer anyways, depending on what happens with Anaheim’s and the expansion draft. Losing a defenseman will open a slot for Theodore in the top four. After a season where Theodore had nine points in 34 games, he put up eight in 14 in the postseason.

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5. Jordan Eberle

Has Eberle played his final game in an Oilers uniform? That’s the question du jour in Edmonton after a subpar regular season and a horrendous postseason. Eberle had zero goals and two points in 13 playoff games. He hasn’t shown consistent chemistry with McDavid, isn’t great in peripheral categories, and makes too much money for his production for those that own him in cap leagues. His value could spike if he’s dealt.

 

4. Pekka Rinne

There have been five goalies this postseason who have a .930-plus save percentage and a goals against average under 2.00: Jake Allen, Martin Jones, Carey Price, Matt Murray and Pekka Rinne. Two of the players on that list lost in the first round, another made it to the second round and Murray has started seven games. There’s a good chance Rinne wins the Conn Smyth if Nashville wins the Cup and his value will skyrocket even more at that point. Remember when drafting next fall that Rinne has had two average regular seasons in a row.

 

3. Charles McAvoy

McAvoy jumped on the radar screen for many fantasy general managers when he made his NHL debut in the playoffs against the Ottawa Senators. He had three points in six games and was impressive in the series loss. He was second on the squad in minutes per game, and poolies drool over young players. But remember it will be harder for McAvoy to get relevant minutes next season with Torey Krug back in the lineup.

 

2. Jake Guentzel

His stock was already rising fast after a rookie season where he had 16 goals and 33 points in 40 games. In my points-only keeper pool, I have four first round draft picks (6th, 8th, 9th and 10th overall). It includes all the 2017 draft picks and any players not on a roster (guys like Viktor Arvidsson, Rickard Rakell, Elias Lindholm and Brandon Montour). I was planning on taking Guentzel with one of those picks. I don’t think he’ll fall to sixth any more. He leads the playoffs with 13 goals (one behind the all-tine NHL rookie record) and his 20 points is tied for third among all players this year.

 

1. Conor Sheary

How fast he fell. Sheary had 53 points in 61 games in the regular season, mostly playing with Sidney Crosby. That’s a 71-point pace over 82 games. He also had 23 goals (a 31-goal pace). He started the playoffs with three points in his first 15 games and was a minus-eight. He has three points in his last four games so he may be turning it around. He has spent much of the playoffs on the fourth line and has even been a healthy scratch. He dropped from a sell-high to a sell-low probably faster than anybody in the last few years.

 

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3 Comments

  1. Alexandre Lussier 2017-06-05 at 16:19

    So right here, on this very page, like 2 months ago, I asked if Sheary was for real, or if he was just a positive collateral damage of playing with Crosby. The answer was : this guy is the real deal.

    Two months later, the same question must be asked about Guentzel. Is this guy for real, or just a product of playing with Crosby or Malkin? How hard will he fall once he ends up on a third or fourth line due to lack of production? What happens if he’s dealt elsewhere?

    We’ve seen so many Colby Armstrong, James Neal and such.

    With a top-3 pick, picks that are so valuable, how much stock should be invested in Sheary / Guentzel vs a guy like Patrick or Hischier?

    • Dobber 2017-06-05 at 16:23

      Guentzel sure is because he has the pedigree and a steady league-over-league track record. Sheary I haven’t given up on, but I do believe he’s the real deal – but obviously not so much for playoff hockey, and heavily reliant on linemates. He’s downgraded slightly as he now carries some risk. But Guentzel can do it on his own. He can run his own line. But obviously would do better playing with Sid

  2. Ian Sharp 2017-06-05 at 19:39

    I would have thought that Montour would have received a better bump than Theodore considering he played while Theodore was a healthy scratch in the later rounds.

    Also I thought Gardiner had a great playoff and deserved an honorable mention.

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