20 Fantasy Hockey Thoughts
Mario Prata
2017-06-25
Every Sunday this off-season, we'll share 20 Fantasy Thoughts from our writers at Dobber Hockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week's "Daily Ramblings".
Contributors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford and Neil Parker
1. Acquired via trade for Vegas also taking Clayton Stoner, Shea Theodore should be the offensive catalyst from the blue line for this team. The hope is he gets heavy top power-play minutes and that will undoubtedly be a boost to his fantasy value. He wasn’t going to get a feature role in Anaheim with the depth on the blue line they have, but turning 22 years old in October, he should be a pillar of the Vegas blue line for the next decade.
The Golden Knights aren't likely to win too many games, but they might be on par with the Canucks, Devils, Avalanche and other weaker teams. Las Vegas isn't going to be a fantasy wasteland, either. Although, there are probably going to be a lot of big minus-ratings. Still, it should put them in a lot of favorable game situations to pile up points in ‘garbage time.’
It might only add up to five points over the course of an entire season, but it's not all doom and gloom. Theodore has 50-point upside with a solid fantasy floor (30-35 points). He is easily the No. 1 offensive talent from that blue line corps, and he's flashed tremendous upside and owns pedigree and a proven track record at the lower levels.
2. If being picked first overall doesn’t solidify Nico Hischier as the top fantasy prospect among players selected in this year's NHL Draft, then I don’t know what will. If you have to pick between him and Nolan Patrick, the second overall pick, Hischier is arguably the player with the higher fantasy upside. But because many fantasy leaguers will default to the first overall pick, I’d expect Hischier to be picked first in most leagues. At least that’s what I’m expecting in my league, where I have the second overall pick. I’m totally expecting to land Patrick.
With the Devils’ lack of legitimate scoring threats, Hischier is a strong bet to start the season in the NHL. As for Patrick, I heard the idea discussed that he could be back in junior for another season. His point-per-game numbers suggest that he doesn’t need another season in the WHL, but remember that he played only 33 games last season.
If Patrick gets out of the gate slowly or is on very limited minutes to start, I wonder if he’s looking into that World Junior Championship opportunity that he missed out on last season.
3. Remember how the Islanders had protected five defensemen and three forwards for the expansion draft? One of those defensemen was Travis Hamonic. Another one was Nick Leddy. Another one was Johnny Boychuk. The other two? Ryan Pulock and Adam Pelech. With Hamonic now traded, both should be in the Islanders’ lineup this coming season.
Pelech hasn’t been a notable offensive contributor in either the AHL or NHL, but Pulock should be of some interest to you. He’s currently number 8 on Dobber’s Top 50 Fantasy Hockey Prospect Defensemen. We’ve been waiting for what seems like an eternity for Pulock (actually only a few years), so it’s now or never for Pulock. But I don’t see how he doesn’t make the team now.
If you’re looking for a deep sleeper to make the Islanders, a blueliner to consider is Devon Toews (no relation to Jonathan). Toews scored 46 points in 76 games in the AHL last season and has shown offensive upside at every level.
4. Adding Brayden Schenn to the fold likely means he and Paul Stastny are the top two centre options with the Blues. Who slots where? Playing with Vladimir Tarasenko at five-on-five is obviously where fantasy owners would want Schenn to play. However, it’s the power-play unit that will make or break his fantasy value. Nearly 44 percent of his points over the last two seasons (114) came with the man advantage (50), as well as more than half of his goals. He has rarely been a solid producer at five-on-five. We’ll have to wait and see how the team decides to use him.
5. It’s fair to say that TJ Oshie is a player who is valued for his offensive prowess, right? Well, over the last three years, he has just one more five-on-five point than Jordan Eberle, and two more five-on-five goals. Eberle was traded earlier this week in a salary dump; Oshie was given a contract valued at $46 million. It’s amazing what a crazy shooting percentage season at the right time – Oshie shot 23.1 percent last year after averaging 12.2 percent for his career – will do for a player’s wallet.
There is going to be a goal-scoring regression here. Assuming he plays all 82 games, shoots his previous career average, and lands about 2.1 shots per game on goal, that’s about a 25-goal season. He won’t fall off the map given his linemates and power-play unit, but a repeat 30-goal season would be the upper limit for a reasonable expectation.
With the season he had, and the team he’s returning to, I imagine he gets over-drafted. I would not take him in the top-50 of a standard roto draft. He just doesn’t stuff peripheral stats, and even if he plays a full year, might not see much increase in raw production. Let someone else take him in the fourth round of a 12-team league.
6. Arizona made a splash in the trade market, to say the least. They needed to add some pieces, and they certainly did that getting their number one centre in Derek Stepan, their number one goalie in Antti Raanta, and a huge bolstering presence to their blue line in Niklas Hjalmarsson. You can read Dobber's take on the Stepan/Raanta trade here, and Neil Parker's on Hjalmarsson here.
I will only briefly touch on Hjalmarsson. He has played seven 82-game seasons and has career highs with five goals, and has cracked 25 points twice, having never hit 30.
The importance of Hjalmarsson is two-fold. First, like Neil mentioned, it could allow a Hjalmarsson/Oliver Ekman-Larsson pairing that can shelter their younger defencemen. It also gives them a true defensive defenceman. A lot of people think of bruising players to be the defensive defensemen, when it’s guys like Hjalmarsson who really fit the bill. He limits shots, zone entries, and dangerous plays with regularity. That can only help a team that was that was abysmal in this regard last year. Of anyone, this helps their goaltending, specifically Raanta, the most.
Speaking of Raanta, he should be given the reigns in net. The team should improve and be passable defensively in front of him. I have high hopes for him but the Coyotes have a long way to go. I wouldn’t overvalue him just yet. A season like Frederik Andersen had last year would be a good year for Raanta in 2017-18, fantasy-wise. That would put him as roughly a top-24 goalie fantasy-wise, or startable in two-goalie, 12-team leagues.
I don’t suspect there’ll be much change in Stepan’s fantasy value. He should be a heavily-used first-line centre and have talented wingers to play with. I am excited to see what Stepan and Max Domi can do together, especially if they’re given an extended look. I am expecting more of the same from the new Arizona centre.
7. The Trevor van Riemsdyk addition in Carolina might prove more valuable off the ice than on it. The Hurricanes are beefing up a core group of youngsters and adding another Stanley Cup champion to the roster is a nice grab.
There aren't many fantasy ripples but it's becoming more and more clear that Ryan Murphy's time is running out in a hurry. The former first-round pick projects to battle with Klas Dahlbeck for playing time this fall, and that's if Haydn Fleury – or Jake Bean in a long shot – don’t bump them both out of the picture.
It's also very interesting long term because Noah Hanifin, van Riemsdyk, Brett Pesce, Jacob Slavin and Murphy are all restricted free agents at the end of the season, so there is a lot at stake for all of them as they try to seed themselves for their next contracts.
8. David Schlemko is a serviceable defenseman that is mobile, can move the puck up ice effectively and has been able to move the possession needle. Montreal got him for free, too. It's a solid add.
However, the Montreal blue line has undergone significant upheaval in the past year, and Jeff Petry is currently the only Canadiens defenseman with more than a season of experience with the team that's under contract. That's not a necessarily a negative but, historically, there is an adjustment period for teams that undergo a significant roster makeover.
It's just something to keep in mind. If things don't gel for the Habs quickly, it could be a drain on Carey Price's fantasy upside.
9. Jordan Weal is going to go Jonathan Marchessault on the NHL next season … if he lands in the right spot. A team should – and probably will – sign Weal to a modest salary and give him top-six minutes. In turn, Weal is going to score, a lot.
He posted a rock-solid 2.29 points per 60 minutes at five-on-five last season with 11 of his 12 points coming at even strength. Landing a power-play role will also help the talented scorer. Weal posted 56 goals and 186 points over 192 games through his final three seasons in the AHL and, for comparison, Marchessault posted 132 through his final 156 AHL contests.
Weal will need the right fit to thrive but there should be a suitor out there willing to hand him the offensive role needed to succeed. As long as that happens he's going to reward his fantasy owners and provide a huge return on investment.
10. Going to Vegas, with the roster that they have, it’s hard to imagine James Neal not getting close to 20 minutes a game. For a guy that is among the top-20 in volume shooters among forwards in the NHL, that should mean more shots on goal, and hopefully he can maintain his 20-goal season streak. This is a downgrade in team (from Nashville) but it might not hurt his production that much.
11. David Perron should be getting a lot of minutes for Vegas, too, hopefully even on the top line with Neal and Vadim Shipachyov. It’s been three years since he cracked 20 goals but with heavy usage he could get there again. With his penchant for penalties and hits, Perron can be a multi-category guy in roto leagues.
12. Not sure how many people realize this but over the last two seasons, Colin Miller was among the league leaders for shot attempts from defensemen. The problem in Boston was he was buried on the depth chart. Given the depth (or lack thereof) in Vegas, Miller should at least be given a consistent role night in and night out. Not that he’d be worth anything in most fantasy leagues but in deeper formats he can rack up the shots if he can get 19-20 minutes a night, as opposed to the 15-16 in Boston. I’ll hold my breath that he actually gets those minutes, though.
13. Brendan Leipsic being chosen in the expansion draft seems to be a situation where he had nowhere to play on the Leafs roster but that’s not an indictment of him as a player. He will get a chance to play in Vegas, it’s a matter of what he does with it. I do worry about his linemates, however, as I would for any forward that isn’t playing on the top line of this team.
14. Being able to draft a 30-goal scorer is obviously never a bad thing for an expansion team. I am curious to see how Jonathan Marchessault fares in Vegas, however. He was moved up and down the lineup in Florida but he did play about half his minutes with one of Aleksander Barkov or Vincent Trocheck. If he doesn’t get on a line with Shipachyov, he might be in trouble finding a talented line to play with.
Beyond that, he shot over 15 percent at five-on-five, which is something to be difficult to repeat in consecutive years. If he gets heavy minutes, the drop in percentages could be offset by a rise in ice time. He should be given a big role on this team, so it’ll be fascinating to see how he can follow his breakout season, but his linemates will be a huge factor here as well.
15. Sometimes, players just end up being Quad-A players, for lack of a better term; they’re too good for the AHL, but never figure it out at the NHL level. Teemu Pulkkinen had 65 goals in 117 AHL games from 2013-15 but has never been able to stick in the NHL.
This is probably Pulkkinen’s last chance to show himself as a capable NHLer. He made his way from Detroit, to Minnesota, to Arizona in the span of a year, and I would imagine gets a one-year deal from the Golden Knights. He’s certainly not anyone to focus on in most drafts come September but he’s worth keeping an eye on in October and November. Sometimes, a player just needs a new zip code and an opportunity.
16. Undoubtedly a Hall of Fame entrant someday, the Blackhawks will miss Marian Hossa’s presence in the lineup. He’s not the elite producer that he may have been five years ago but he still had 26 goals in 73 games last season and was once more an effective defensive forward. Yes, this helps Chicago get under the salary cap. No, this doesn’t help their current roster beyond that.
It does open up some things for the Blackhawks depth. Hossa had been relegated at times last year to the third line, with the Patrick Kane unit staying together, and Jonathan Toews enjoying a rotation of linemates. For me, beyond Richard Panik, there are two players to keep an eye on:
Ryan Hartman was a guy I wrote about last month as a potential breakout candidate. Whether this open roster spot gets him top line minutes is another issue entirely but I imagine it at least keeps him in the top-9 forward mix, and perhaps he can play his way to a bigger role as the season wears on.
Alex DeBrincat has all the makings of a high-end scorer, it’s just about getting the opportunity to do so. We know coach Joel Quenneville isn’t always the quickest to play his youth, or given them consistent minutes, but his hand may be forced here.
17. Posting 18 goals and 54 points was a bit of a letdown for Alexander Radulov last season. Some probably expected less from him but he is clearly capable of posting 25 goals and 60 points. Unfortunately, he really faded midseason and posted just five goals and 16 points during a 30-game stretch from January 12 through March 25.
However, during that cold stretch, Montreal's 2.08 goals per 60 minutes was the third-lowest total in the league. Radulov's slump was likely more tied to the Canadiens' scoring woes than his own play. It was also encouraging to see him take his game to another level in the postseason with two goals and five assists through six playoff games.
Radulov stands to have another solid season in Montreal but if he relocates to a more prolific offense, he could easily add a handful of goals and up to a dozen more points up next year.
18. I can’t help but think that Cory Schneider is going to be a good value in fantasy drafts next year. There are very few goalies we can accurately describe as both elite and proven, and Schneider fits those descriptors. He has posted three straight seasons with a save percentage over .920 since arriving in New Jersey. During that span, he had the same five-on-five save percentage as Braden Holtby, and the same adjusted save percentage as Corey Crawford. He however cratered to a .908 all-situations save percentage in 2016-17.
Most goalies have at least one bad year. The Devils should improve, however marginally, in the off-season, as well. He almost certainly will be outside the top-12 goaltenders in fantasy drafts and if I can grab him as my second goalie, that is a risk well worth taking.
19. Jordan Eberle will have to fall off the map entirely or get injured not to be lining up with John Tavares all season. The winger should flirt with 30 goals and 70 points, and Tavares might provide an uptick in goals playing with Eberle, too.
As for Ryan Strome, he should be able to break out with Edmonton. The Oilers want to have a one-two punch of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl down the middle, and Strome is a capable middle-six winger right now. Strome might be a top-line winger at some point in his career, too. He should be able to score 20 goals and record 50 points flanking either of McDavid or Draisaitl.
Edmonton typically returns to rolling out McDavid and Draisaitl on the same line to catalyze offense, however, so there is no guarantee Strome sees consistent playing time with either star. It's the risk of chasing linemates and he'll probably not be exempt from it without hitting the ground running and never looking back.
20. Regardless of what the reason was, Artemi Panarin is now in Columbus, and Brandon Saad is back in Chicago. This trade could be confusing to some people. Why would Chicago trade a player with 151 points in 162 games, having just signed him seven months ago for a player with a career high of 53 points?
I think it’s time we delved into some of Saad’s numbers from the last three years, his tenure in Columbus:
– A total of 58 five-on-five goals scored, tied for eighth in the NHL, and more than Joe Pavelski, Nikita Kucherov, and Tyler Seguin, who had 56 each. That total of 58 is the same one as John Tavares' and two fewer than Sidney Crosby.
– Those 58 goals weren’t the result of a crazy scoring binge, either: He was outside the top 25 percent of forwards (minimum 2000 minutes played) in five-on-five shooting percentage. It wasn’t a result of a ridiculous single season, either, as he scored either 19 or 20 goals in each of those three years.
– A total of 116 five-on-five points scored, tied for 15th in the NHL with Filip Forsberg, and more than Johnny Gaudreau (115), Matt Duchene (110), and Brad Marchand (110).
– His goals per 60 minutes rate over those campaigns is 1.06, that's 10th out of 261 forwards with at least 2000 minutes played, and higher than Crosby (1.04) and Alex Ovechkin (1.03).
– His points per 60 minutes rate over those campaigns is 2.12, tied for 19th out of those 261 forwards, with Mark Stone. It is a mark higher than Filip Forsberg (2.10), Nicklas Backstrom (2.08), and the newly-signed Oshie (2.07).
I hope readers get the point here. This is a player turning 25 years old in October putting himself in the conversation with the elite goal and point producers in the NHL. The problem is simple: Power-play ice time. He has 21 power-play points over his three years in Columbus. Not an average in each season. Total. Combined. For all three years. Sam Gagner had 18 power-play points last year alone.
This is where usage affects perception. Over the two years Panarin has been in the league, Saad’s goals and point rates per minute are higher but overall production is considerably lower. That will happen when you play fewer than nearly two full minutes per game and don’t get premium power-play minutes. With the correct PP usage, Saad can be a perennial 30-goal, 60-point player. Without that, it will be hard for him to reach his potential. We’ll see how he’s used now that he’s back in Chicago. For Neil Parker’s slant on this, check it out here.
Have a good week, folks!!