We begin our summer Cage Match Tournament with skaters that peaked early.

What’s the most eagerly anticipated event for poolies this offseason? The Expansion Draft, and its dozens of moving parts? The Entry Draft, and its impact on the present and future of? Free Agency, and its fast-paced comings and goings? None of those things of course – it’s the unmatched fun and fantasy insight of the summer Cage Match Tournaments!

I decided that since I just covered peak ages for fantasy production, why not stick with that theme? This week you’re voting on early peakers, then next week we’ll shift to potential late bloomers. If all goes well, I might even toss in an unrelated third bonus tournament.

This Week’s Tournament – Skaters Who Peaked Early

For our first tournament, I assembled a list of skaters who are at risk for having already produced their best single season point total despite the fact that as of October 4, 2017 (which is the first day of the 2017-18 campaign) they’ll each still be younger than the supposed “peak” age for their position according to my recent columns (i.e., 28.24 for defensemen, and 27.73 for forwards).

So that means to be eligible for the tournament, all defensemen must have been born no earlier than June 7, 1989 and all forwards on or after January 13, 1990. Thus, don’t look for otherwise arguably deserving players like P.K. Subban (born May 13, 1989), Jakub Voracek (August 15, 1989), or Jamie Benn (July 18, 1989) as voting choices.

Other Rules, and Voting

Beyond the age requirements, I also didn’t include anyone who set a career high this past season. My reasoning was by limiting it to players at least one season removed from a career high that makes it more plausible they’ve actually peaked. Thus, among others, you won’t see Victor Hedman, Justin Schultz, Nikita Kucherov, Jake Gardiner, Marcus Johansson, Nazem Kadri, or Mark Scheifele as choices. I also didn’t include anyone whose career best is 90+ points, since in this day and age it’s not easy to score 90+ multiple times. In turn, that means no Steven Stamkos or Connor McDavid. Lastly, I didn’t include anyone who set a career high earlier than 2013-14, since in such cases (we’re looking at you, Jordan Eberle) it’s pretty safe to say they did peak early.

I’m going to allow you to vote for as many of the choices as you want. So if you think none will ever again reach their previous career high, go ahead and vote for all of them. Otherwise, vote for the ones you think have already peaked, and don’t vote for those you think could still surpass their previous career high in 2017-18 or in any future season. Things like contract status, likelihood of being traded, injury risk, and individual/team situation are all relevant factors to consider. In other words, don’t vote in a vacuum or with your heart– this calls for analysis of the totality of a player’s current and likely future circumstances. The results will be fantasy relevant for Dobberites, so please take this seriously.

As with past tournaments, voting will take place in the DobberHockey forums. I’ll put a direct link to the voting thread at the bottom of the column.

The Choices

The voting choices are listed in alphabetical order, along with their birthdate and their previous career high. As a reminder, vote for however many players you think WILL NOT ever again (in 2017-18 or a subsequent campaign) produce a single season point total that’s greater than their previous career high.

Tyson Barrie (Born: July 26, 1991; Previous career high in points: 53 in 2014-15)

A big question mark with all Colorado skaters (spoiler alert – three are choices) is whether they’re being dragged down by the struggles of the team as a whole. With Barrie, there’s arguments for and against that being the case. On the one hand, Colorado shot just 6.74% at 5×5 while Barrie was on the ice in 2016-17; yet in his career best season that rate was unsustainably high at 11.27%. Also, his offensive zone starting percentage for 2016-17 was the highest of his career despite Colorado’s struggles, so him not being able to produce is concerning. Even still – his 38 points meant he tallied a point on 23% of Colorado’s 165 goals for 2016-17, which is only a bit lower than his 25% rate from his 53 point best.

John Carlson (Born: January 10, 1990; Previous career high in points: 55 in 2014-15

When Carlson posted 55 points at age 25, then followed with a 57 point scoring pace (39 points in 57 games) the next season, it seemed like he’d arrived and the question wasn’t if but when he’d hit the 60 point mark. Then last season he cratered to 35 points in 72 games, for barely a 40 point pace, despite still taking the ice for 53.8% of the team’s PP Time and 50.6% of the SH time, which were both improved over his rates versus his 55 point season (38.5% and 54.4% respectively). Not only that, but his 2016-17 team 5×5 Shooting Percentage and his OZ% were within reasonable levels and his percentage of points on goals scored while he was on the ice, although a tad lower, doesn’t explain his huge drop in scoring rate. Carlson just might be a Ryan Suter type who caught lightning in a bottle as a youngster.

Matt Duchene (Born: January 16, 1991; Previous career high in points: 70 in 2013-14)

To go from 70 points in 71 games to 41 points in 77 contests in the space of only three seasons before even turning 27 years old is, to resort to an overused expression, jaw-dropping. Working in Duchene’s favor is the fact that the latest he’d be able to escape Colorado would be after the 2018-19 campaign, when he’d still be only 28 years old. Yet the question would then become whether he’d have enough left in the tank, not to mention sufficient motivation, to beat his career high, which is made somewhat easier in that although it was nearly point per game output it came to just 70 points due to him missing 11 contests that season.

Oliver Ekman-Larsson (Born: July 17, 1991; Previous career high in points: 55 in 2015-16)

At first glance, there’s a strong case for OEL having peaked early, what with a career high that’s more than 20% above his next highest output and having dipped below 40 points in 2016-17. Yet we’ve since learned OEL had two significant and largely unpublicized factors working against him last season, in the form of months-long physical discomfort plus sustained emotional pain. While those things both now being in the past seemingly paves the way for a rebound, there was also the reality that his offensive zone deployment was down sharply to only 42%, his SH usage was way up, and his PP usage was lower, which collectively signal that the team might be looking at him as more of a complete player. Also, the 5×5 shooting percentage for the Coyotes for his 55 point season was 9.77%, which is unsustainably high and considerably above the rate for OEL’s other seasons. As with others on this list, the overall picture for OEL is at best unclear.

Justin Faulk (Born: March 20, 1992; Previous career high in points: 49 in 2014-15)

There are two well-known concerns with Faulk, namely his injury history and the apparent upward trajectory of young Hurricane d-men Noah Hanifin and recently extended Jaccob Slavin. But even beyond those issues, there’s the fact that Faulk saw his scoring rate drop last season despite the improvement of the team around him (212 goals scored, up from 196 in 2015-16), plus him having not only seen his SH Ice Time decrease all the way to 16% of the team’s SH time (from a range of 46%-57% over the prior four seasons) but also benefitting on paper from a markedly increased offensive zone starting percentage of 55%. If he couldn’t step up his production amid circumstances as favorable as those, then at only age 25 his best might already be behind him even if he somehow finds a way to somehow cease his band-aid boy ways.

Taylor Hall (Born: November 14, 1991; Previous career high in points: 80 in 2013-14)

In his first season as a Devil at age 25, Hall produced at a rate similar to his final two campaigns in Edmonton. The issue is that was well below the torrid pace which saw him score 80 points (in only 75 games) as a 22 year old. New Jersey seemingly has bottomed out; however, the question becomes whether Hall can either carry the team himself or find enough help from a still below average supporting cast to see him rise to the 80 point level again, not to mention to stay healthy enough to even play in enough games for that to be a possibility. One key is he’ll be only 28 years old in 2020 when his current deal expires and leaves him a UFA, which in turn could put him in position to still be young enough to find fantasy success elsewhere should he so desire.

Ryan Johansen (Born: July 31, 1992; Previous career high in points: 71 in 2014-15)

Since coming to Nashville, it’s been well-documented that Johansen has turned into more playmaker than scorer, with his shot rate down 25% since his career high 71 point season. Of course there are plenty of assists-heavy totals among top scorers; however, with Johansen’s offensive zone starting percentage for 2016-17 well higher than in his career best season and his other metrics (percentage of points on goals scored while he was on the ice, team shooting percentage, and percentage of team PP time) all within the same range as when he bested 70, poolies can’t help but wonder if a point total in the 60s will be the new normal for Johansen going forward.

Tyler Johnson (Born: July 29, 1990; Previous career high in points: 72 in 2014-15)

It’s safe to say Johnson’s freshly inked $5M per season AAV deal doesn’t scream that of a player whose team is counting on to score 70+ points on a perennial basis. And although the undersized, formerly undrafted Johnson has seemingly never met a challenge he didn’t overcome, there’s the reality that he’s produced best when Steven Stamkos is not in the line-up, and that Tampa’s team shooting percentage at 5×5 was a very bloated 11.25% in his 72 point campaign, which also featured Johnson sporting a point per 60 minutes rate more than 30% higher than in any other season. Moreover, even amid Stamkos’ absence for most of last season, Johnson saw his offensive zone starting rate drop to 50.8%, well lower than the 54% it was in each of his two prior seasons.

Roman Josi (Born: June 1, 1990; Previous career high in points: 61 in 2015-16)

Last season Josi looked lost early on, what with being untethered from longtime defensive partner Shea Weber. Yet as Weber ended the season ice cold Josi was on fire, finishing with 27 points in his final 29 games. Even still, Josi’s career best of 61 points might be tough to top, as since 2000-01 the only d-man to score 61+ points then best that total more than a season later is Erik Karlsson, and he didn’t have the likes of P.K. Subban, Ryan Ellis, and Mattias Ekholm to syphon away rearguard points. No matter how good Josi might be, and notwithstanding his scorching hot finish to 2016-17, there might not be enough defensemen points to go around for him to seriously challenge his previous career best.

John Klingberg (Born: August 14, 1992; Previous career high in points: 58 in 2015-16)

After 98 points in his first 141 games (a 57 point scoring pace), Klingberg dropped to 49 points in 80 games last season despite his highest percentage of PP usage and being one of fewer than ten NHL defensemen to average more than 23:00 in non-shorthanded ice time per game. The problem likely lay in Klingberg going from mentee (playing 80% of his 5×5 shifts with Alex Goligoski in 2014-15, and 90% in 2015-16) to mentor (playing nearly 75% of his 5×5 shifts in 2016-17 with Esa Lindell), and no longer having as much free reign as during his first two higher flying seasons. The cure for what ails Klingberg, and the poolies who own him, might come in the form of Marc Methot, who we know allowed Erik Karlsson to score at will in Ottawa. Yet Kilingberg still might be asked to do more as he matures, and his ice time could not have been more perfect than it was in 2016-17, so him besting his 58 point sophomore season is far from a foregone conclusion.

Evgeny Kuznetsov (Born: May 19, 1992; Previous career high in points: 77 in 2015-16)

If Johnson’s contract raised questions about whether the Lightning viewed him as someone who’ll be counted upon for top scoring, Kuznetsov’s eight year, $62.4M megadeal left no such ambiguity. But even if Kuznetsov is given more PP1 Time, which he previously lacked, is there a realistic path for him to best his previous high of 77 points with Nicklas Backstrom in the picture, and after a campaign that saw Kuznetsov’s SOG rate, PP Time and overall Ice Time all drop? Backstrom’s top line status and role as PP expert on Washington are unlikely to be challenged by Kuznetsov, which means what the Caps did was lock in Kuznetsov to play well for the next three seasons then perhaps step into the Backstrom role after Backstrom’s deal ends in 2020. But Kuznetsov will be 28 by then, and who knows if he’ll still have it in him to post 77 points yet again.

Gabriel Landeskog (Born: November 23, 1992; Previous career high in points: 65 in 2013-14)

Remarkably, since scoring 65 points in 2013-14 Landeskog has seen his goals (23, 20, 18), assists (36, 33, 15), and points (59, 53, 33) all drop in each of the past three seasons! And unlike Barrie, Landeskog’s drop in production (37% from 2015-16 to 2016-17) has far outpaced his team’s woes. With 2016-17 marking Landeskog’s second lowest SOG rate in the past four seasons and his lowest PPPt rate, clearly he seems to have hit bottom; but can he rise back to even a 60 point level? The fact that even through his struggles in the past three seasons he still managed a point on over 70% of all goals scored at 5×5 while he’s on the ice does suggest he’s got the talent to produce on the scoresheet, and none of his luck-based metrics for 2013-14 were off the charts. Nevertheless, it might just be that Landeskog, despite his status as a former top draft pick and him still not even 25 years old, simply isn’t the player he was for that one fateful season.

Ryan O’Reilly (Born: February 7, 1991; Previous career high in points: 64 in 2013-14)

Sometimes the easiest way for a player to see his scoring increase is for his ice time to go up. But then there’s O’Reilly, who, despite leading all NHL forwards in average Ice Time per game for the second straight season in 2016-17, managed to score at a pace lower than his career high. With the emergence of Jack Eichel, O’Reilly might be starting down a path like that of Ryan Kesler, who plays tough minutes in order to let Ryan Getzlaf shine. The first signs are seemingly already there, with O’Reilly’s offensive zone starting percentage creeping further downward to 45.4% in 2016-17. When all is said and done, O’Reilly’s career could mirror that of Kesler, who posted his highest career scoring total by age 25.

Ondrej Palat (Born: March 28, 1991; Previous career high in points: 63 in 2014-15)

With Jonathan Drouin gone and Palat having finished with 20 points in his final 17 games for 2016-17, he should be a shoo-in to best his career high in 2017-18, right? Not so fast. For one, let’s remember he also finished very strong to end 2015-16 (20 points in his final 19 games) and then parlayed that into only a 57 point full season scoring pace for 2016-17. Perhaps even more concerning, however, is that although Palat’s most frequent linemate last season was superstar in the making Nikita Kucherov, it seems as though Palat may have been holding back Kucherov, who had his lowest goals per 60 minutes while sharing the ice with Palat. Also, Tampa’s shooting percentage as a team at 5×5 with Palat on the ice has dropped each of the last two seasons. The good news is Palat is a versatile player; however, that may also prove to be his fantasy undoing, as it could cause him to go from line to line and never be positioned to represent a threat for 65 points, especially with all the time he spends shorthanded.

Artemi Panarin (Born: October 30, 1991; Previous career high in points: 77 in 2015-16)

Another in a long line of Chicago cap/contract casualties, Panarin will get a chance to show he can produce in an environment without Patrick Kane. Looking at other prominent fantasy assets who also left Chicago by their mid-20s, several did indeed improve their outputs, most notably Andrew Ladd, Nick Leddy, Troy Brouwer and Dustin Byfuglien. But in their cases, they weren’t already established fantasy stars. With Panarin, is there anywhere to go but down? Surely Columbus has big plans for him, as will whatever team signs him to a huge UFA deal in 2019, when Panarin will be 28. But as with Kuznetsov, 77 points is a very high threshold, which he couldn’t even manage to exceed in his second season alongside Kane.

Tyler Seguin (Born: January 31, 1992; Previous career high in points: 84 in 2013-14)

When Ken Hitchcock was named the new coach of the Stars, everyone was saying the right things, including Seguin, who claims he’s eager to embrace a role that might focus less exclusively on just the offensive zone. Placing aside Seguin’s past maturity issues that he seemingly has outgrown, there’s also the fact that in Hitchcock’s first full season with each of the last three teams he’s coached, the total number of goals scored by that team has dropped from the prior season, as did the output of the team’s leading scorer from the prior campaign. Also, in looking at the 13 full seasons for the teams Hitchcock has coached, no player has ever exceeded Seguin’s career high of 84 points, with none having even topped 79 points since back in 2000-01. Be all this as it may, Seguin is set to be a UFA in 2019 at age 27, so even if he’s held back by Hitchcock he can opt to sign elsewhere and still seemingly have a chance to surpass his prior career high.

John Tavares (Born: September 20, 1990; Previous career high in points: 86 in 2014-15)

It seems like just yesterday Tavares strung together a three season stretch of 199 points in 189 games, which was the sixth highest output among all NHLers during that time period and the fourth highest in terms of point per game rate. Since then, however, Tavares has amassed only the 16th highest points total, and merely the 18th best points per game rate. Although the Islanders have given him nearly nothing to help his scoring cause, some of the blame rightfully falls on his own shoulders. After all, his points per 60 minutes has dropped in each of the last two seasons, plus his 86 point campaign not so coincidentally saw his team shooting percentage at 5×5 balloon to 10.35%, and he’s never seen even 9.00% in any other single season. Of course Tavares holds his own fate in his hands as a UFA next summer, so if he chooses he can be on a new team right after turning 28. The question is whether he’ll have enough in the tank to do what only Ryan Getzlaf, Patrick Kane, and Sidney Crosby have each done once in the last five full seasons, namely score 87+ points at age 28+.

Voting

To vote, click on this link. Voting will remain open through Sunday July 23. As a reminder, you can vote for as many or as few players as you want, and you should vote for anyone you think WILL NOT ever again (in 2017-18 or a later season) surpass their previous career high that was set before they reached the “peak” age for their position. Be sure to come back next week for the second summer cage match tournament, where you’ll be voting on forwards you think can still set career highs despite the fact that they’ll be entering 2017-18 at an age beyond the “peak” age for their position.