Every Sunday this off-season, we'll share 20 Fantasy Thoughts from our writers at Dobber Hockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week's "Daily Ramblings".

Contributors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, and Neil Parker

1. Because of the Derek Stepan trade to Arizona, Mika Zibanejad has the opportunity to fill the role as the number one center for the Rangers, ahead of Kevin Hayes and David Desharnais. There’s also a possibility that J.T. Miller moves over to center as well.

Because of a broken fibula, Zibanejad was limited to 56 games last season, scoring 37 points. Over a full 82 games, that would have projected as his second consecutive 50-point season. With Stepan’s departure, Zibanejad could easily push 60 points. But it’s also worth mentioning that even though the Rangers finished fourth in goals last season, they did not have a 60-point scorer. Just four 50-point scorers (Mats Zuccarello, Miller, Stepan, Chris Kreider). So the advantage of playing on the first line isn’t as pronounced on the Rangers as it is on other teams.

As expected, the cap hit was a sizable jump from the $2.6 million that he made the last two seasons. Still, $5.35 million per seasons is a reasonable amount for what a player of his abilities should earn. The concern might be that Zibanejad has only one 50-point season under his belt. But at age 24, he possesses both the size and skill to be an effective NHLer for years to come. I don’t think we’ve seen Zibanejad’s career high yet. So far, the Zibanejad trade appears to be a big win for the Rangers.

2. Only a couple of days left … until the 2017-18 Fantasy Hockey Guide! Christmas for Dobber fans! Pre-order the 12^th edition here.

3. I wrote just a few days ago on the situations of Kris Letang and Justin Schultz, so there’s not much need to dive further again. I did find it interesting that in a comment on the Ramblings, a reader weighed in that Letang was drafted in a recent draft he did just outside the top-50, and Schultz just outside the top-100. That honestly feels right for about both players, though I’m not sure I’d personally take either at such a position. Assuming a non-healthy season for Letang and a regression for Schultz, you’re probably drafting them at their upside this year at those positions.  

4. After tallying 53 goals over two seasons in his early 20s from 2013-15, hopes were high for Jaden Schwartz in 2015-16. An injury-plagued season destroyed those hopes, but a healthy 2016-17 had hopes up again. While he didn’t have a poor season – 55 points is nothing to sneeze at – failing to crack 20 goals was a disappointment for fantasy owners.

Last year was a prime example of the fantasy issues arising when a low-volume shooter doesn’t maintain a high rate of conversion. He still managed to shoot 10.6 percent in all situations, was on the ice for nearly 19 minutes a game, but still failed to crack 20 goals. When a low-volume shooter doesn’t maintain a high percentage, the resulting dip in goals is a double whammy.

The issue with Schwartz was the power play. He managed just three goals after averaging more than double that from his back-to-back 25-plus goal seasons earlier in his career. He accomplished by shooting under 9 percent with the man advantage, despite shooting over 20 percent over the three prior seasons. Given he was on the top unit the majority of his power-play minutes, it’s curious he saw such a dip in shooting percentage. Without going back and looking over the game tape of their power plays, I would guess there is a bit of poor luck in here, and that should turn around next year. A bit of better luck on the PP could push him back towards the 25-goal mark and over 60 points. Just be wary of him in roto leagues; he is not a peripheral stat stuffer. He is a much better asset in points-only leagues.

5. Nashville signed restricted free agent centre Ryan Johansen to an eight-year contract with an average annual value of $8 million. Johansen turns 25 at the end of the month, and managed 95 points in 124 regular season games after being traded to the Predators.

Earlier this month, I wrote about why Ryan Johansen is probably an overvalued roto asset (different story in points-only leagues). There’s no need re-hashing those details.

What I will say is this is probably an overpayment but Nashville’s hands were kind of tied here. The list of centres with at least 275 points through their Age-24 season since the 2005 lockout is fairly short (15 names, not including Johansen) and with the cap increasing by about 25 percent over the last six years, it’s easy to see why he got this deal. Nashville has several team-friendly contracts on the books so this doesn’t put them in a huge bind and this locks up the franchise’s top-line centre for the better part of a decade.  

6. Don't be hesitant to call out Jake Guentzel's name early in fantasy drafts. Many will cling to the idea that he hasn't proven himself over a full season and potentially even worry that his production is tied to flanking Sidney Crosby. Those fantasy players don't deserve shares. Another subsection of gamers will focus on the unavoidable negative regression ahead of his shooting percentage and worry about a sophomore slump. That crowd shouldn't have a chance to pluck Guentzel in the middle rounds, either

There is likely to be some peaks and valleys during his sophomore campaign and it is absolutely going to be difficult to duplicate his shooting percentage, but there is plenty room for statistical decline. Guentzel can afford to take a hit and still post high-end numbers. However, he's a rare case where there is also a legitimate chance that he just continues to roll. A top-six gig is locked up and that means playing with Crosby or Evgeni Malkin. If you lose your fantasy league because you took Guentzel too early, it will be the shocker of 2017-18.

7. Depending on how you want to approach your fantasy draft’s first-round pick, it's worth noting that Vladimir Tarasenko is the only player in the NHL with at least 35 goals, 70 points and 260 shots in each of the past three seasons. That alone is an intriguing starting point, but it's also worth noting that the sniper is also just entering his age-26 season and still in the heart of his offensive prime.

Additionally, the Blues have undergone a number of changes the past few years and Tarasenko is now the go-to scorer for St. Louis. After Mike Yeo took over as head coach, he utilized his star as such, and Tarasenko averaged 19:05 of ice per game. He logged a full minute less with Ken Hitchcock calling the shots. Tarasenko is a high-floor, high-upside option that warrants fantasy attention immediately and has a case for being the No. 1 pick.

8. With 89 points – 25 goals – through 104 AHL games over the past two seasons, the arrow is pointing straight up for Brandon Montour. He was often deployed as a depth defenseman and even watched from the press box a number of nights last year, but his numbers when in the lineup are solid: 13 points through 44 games (including the playoffs). Additionally, his seven assists and excellent play through 17 postseason games was especially encouraging. While Montour is likely still a year or two away from being a go-to fantasy asset, don't be shocked when he immediately shines in a larger role. His skating ability is a real difference maker.

9. I don’t think it’s worth wasting too many words here. At this point, we know who he is. Evgeni Malkin is one of the greatest talents of this generation but he cannot stay healthy for the life of him; he missed four games in the first three seasons of his career, and in the eight years since, he’s played about three-quarters of possible regular season games (464 out of 622). When you have an eight-year sample of a player averaging about 61 games every 82, it’s no longer unlucky and simply the status quo. Just keep that in mind when draft season rolls around.

10. Earlier this month, the Sabres signed Chad Johnson to a one-year deal. They recently signed Robin Lehner, as well, also to a one-year deal worth $4 million. Lehner will be a restricted free agent at the end of the contract.

It’s really hard what to make of the Swedish netminder. He’s been in the NHL for seven years but has just 155 career starts. The 2016-17 campaign was the first time in his career he managed more than 30 starts in a season. Since entering the NHL, however, he has the same save percentage in all situations as guys like Corey Crawford and Jonathan Quick. He’s also been excellent for the Sabres in a small sample.

In a 60-start season, with an improved defence (and team) in front of him, 30 wins with solid ratios seems like a good baseline. He does have a lengthy injury history, however. His ADP last year across ESPN, Yahoo, and CBS was just outside the top-25 goalies. It seems fair to think he’ll be just inside the top-25 this year. That means in a 12-team league, he’ll be someone’s second goalie. Given his injury history and the uncertainty of the quality of the team in front of him, I can’t argue with avoiding him. But it seems like he could be worth the risk at that ADP. What say you, Dobber fans?

11. After being pushed down the depth chart of the John Tortorella-led Blue Jackets, Scott Hartnell returns to the Predators on a one-year deal. It’s actually a wonder that Hartnell got to 37 points last season, considering how little he was used (12:03 TOI/GP) by Torts.

Hartnell has always seemed to fall in fantasy drafts, in spite of his ability to put up reasonable points and triple-digit penalty minute totals (for leagues that count PIM). Where he fits in with the Predators will be interesting, as he will probably leapfrog over one or more young forwards that aren’t quite ready.

But it is worth mentioning that Hartnell did not score a single goal over his last 33 games (37 if you count playoffs), which dated all the way back to January 21. Should those goal-scoring hiccups continue, Hartnell could be providing his veteran presence on the fourth line in short order. For that reason, I’m not biting.

12. It’s fair to say that Mikkel Boedker didn’t look like a good fit with the Sharks in his first season. His 26 points was his lowest total since the 2011-12 season. That included a grand total of one power-play point. One! Arizona and Colorado actually appeared to be better places for him to be than San Jose!

But the departure of Patrick Marleau might not help anyone more than Boedker, which I mentioned in the Marleau signing Fantasy Take. There’s real opportunity here, particularly if Boedker can get in on that first-unit power play spot that Marleau leaves. That would be a big jump from last season but it could also be Tomas Hertl or Joonas Donskoi claiming that spot, which would make them legit sleepers as well.

13. It’s a bit hard to believe that Andrei Markov will not be returning to the NHL this coming season. I’m not totally surprised he left for the KHL but he appeared to have at least a couple of decent seasons left in him.

His departure and that of Alexander Radulov will give the Habs’ power play a completely different look for next season. Since Markov was on the point with Shea Weber on the Habs’ first power-play unit, someone will need to fill the void. Who will it be?

Mark Streit is only a year older than Markov but his point decline has been more apparent. This might not be music to a Habs’ fans’ ears but Streit has to be a considered a strong favorite here. I could totally see a world where Streit is a bottom-pairing defenseman but on the first-unit power play. He wasn’t trusted enough for the Penguins to use him a whole lot during the playoffs. But it’s not as if the Habs have a whole ton of viable options on defense for this role. Jeff Petry? David Schlemko? Neither has the kind of body of work on the power play as Streit.

Sticking a forward on the point is another possibility. We’d have to assume that the first unit will likely consist of Max Pacioretty, Alex Galchenyuk, and Jonathan Drouin. That would leave one of someone like Brendan Gallagher or Andrew Shaw as the fourth forward. Drouin often played the point on the Lightning’s power play, so this is a model that the Habs could also very well use. I have a feeling this will be the most popular option but knowing the Habs that doesn’t mean that will be the one that is chosen.

14. More about Markov: Since getting to the NHL as a 22-year-old in the 2000-01 season, he amassed 572 points in 990 career regular season games. He played his entire career with the Montreal Canadiens. Fantasy hockey-wise, he was as valuable an asset as there was over the last decade or so. Yes, he had those knee issues that cropped up several years ago that limited him to just 65 games over a three-year span. Since the 2005 lockout, however, he managed 460 points 723 games. That mark of 0.64 points/game was bested only by Erik Karlsson and Nicklas Lidstrom among defencemen since the 2005 lockout. Since the end of the 2012 lockout, he had missed just two games in four years before missing 20 in 2016-17.

It’s a shame to see a NHL career end in this way. He had shown through his play over several seasons to be a reliable puck-moving defenceman, even at this age, something most teams need. He apparently didn’t want to play anywhere but Montreal, which makes this even harder as a hockey fan. He’s one of the more under-appreciated players of this century, and will be missed by fantasy hockey owners. Best wishes to him with his new career in the KHL.

15. It was definitely a disappointing season for Tyler Toffoli in 2016-17, as the notoriously streaky scorer never hit a groove. His year was interrupted by an 19-game absence due to a lower-body injury and he finished with just 16 goals and 34 points through 63 games.

There were some encouraging signs, though. He averaged 2.62 shots per game and averaged a career-high 2:17 of power-play time per game. Additionally, Toffoli was a victim of a declined shooting percentage. After posting a 12.3 mark over the previous three years, his shooting percentage dipped to 9.7 last year. In the heart of his prime and  entering his age-25 campaign, a big rebound is well within reach.

16. Toffoli’s teammate, Tanner Pearson, is an intelligent player coming off a career year (24 goals and 44 points). He's an excellent complement to both scorers and playmakers and is also just entering his offensive prime. The winger averaged 2:24 of power-play time per game last season, so with a scoring role locked up, another step forward isn't out of the question. Pearson is a sound late-round target that might not carry much fanfare in most circles.

17. While the remaining class of unrestricted free agents isn't the be-all, end-all indication of the NHL trend of teams moving to younger and younger rosters, it certainly is telling.

Of the 38 UFAs that played at least 40 games in the NHL last season only seven are under 30: Dwight King, Alex Chiasson, Cody Franson, Ryan White, Joseph Cramarossa, Jimmy Hayes and Jyrki Jokipakka.

It's a pretty telling indication of the youth movement of the NHL and it shouldn't be ignored in fantasy circles, especially in keeper/dynasty settings. As serviceable assets move closer towards their age-30 campaigns, it's time to consider flipping or exposing them.

Another sign is that both Pittsburgh and Nashville utilized a number of young players in their lower lines, as opposed to veterans. The injection of youth was huge for both teams and in a copycat league, it wouldn't be surprising to see more teams use a similar approach moving forward. Speed and cheap salaries will continue this tend.

18. One player that at least a few keeper league owners seem to be trying to get rid of is Sami Vatanen. The offseason shoulder surgery that could delay the start of his season is one thing, but a drop of 14 points to just 24 points in 2016-17 seems to have placed Vatanen outside the group of defensemen that one would select from in, say, a standard-sized Yahoo league.

Hampus Lindholm seems to be suffering an almost identical fate. He has also undergone offseason shoulder surgery and his production also dropped last season. Lindholm didn’t quite have as far to fall but with just 20 points in 66 games, there are probably better defensemen out there for your fantasy team. Especially if Lindholm misses time to start the season.

Under Randy Carlyle’s system, Cam Fowler became the go-to guy. Fowler and Vatanen’s power-play icetime was similar (around three minutes per game), yet Fowler received three minutes more overall ice time per game compared to Vatanen (two of which was even strength). It’s interesting how power-play ice time isn’t the deciding factor here, but clearly Carlyle trusts Fowler more than Vatanen. The ice time difference translated to about three more shifts per game for Fowler.

Lindholm has failed to reach 30 points in back-to-back seasons, even though his career high is 34. So, we may have to grow accustomed to him as a defender whose point totals will be in the 20s. But could Vatanen bounce back? There’s the chance that Brandon Montour could earn more power-play time and Josh Manson more even-strength time. That means that Vatanen’s role could diminish further.

Those who own Vatanen and Lindholm and are considering other options can’t be blamed for doing so, as neither has a ton of fantasy appeal heading into the season. Fantasy owners shouldn’t go out of their way to protect them the way the Ducks did for the expansion draft.

19. A pairing of defencemen that I think makes for interesting debate is Mark Giordano and Dougie Hamilton.

After a slow start to the season that saw the captain post just one goal and nine points through 26 games, Giordano managed 11 goals and 30 points over his final 55 games. In standard ESPN leagues, he managed to finish as a top-12 defenceman. It was a season, however, that saw him fail to crack 40 points for the first time since the lockout-shortened campaign, and he dropped below two shots on goal per game for the first time since that same year as well.

On the other hand, Hamilton also finished as a top-12 ESPN defenceman, cracking 50 points and managing over 2.7 shots on goal per game. He did this despite a three-year low in ice time per game, coming in at 19:41. He tallied 14 power-play points, however, despite about 24 fewer PP minutes than Giordano managed.  Over the last three seasons, the only defensemen more productive than Hamilton on a point-per-minute basis at five-on-five are Brent Burns, Erik Karlsson, and Victor Hedman.

We have one defenceman in his mid-30s who is probably declining but has a long track record of success and will get heavy usage. And we have another in his mid-20s, hitting his prime, but who may see about 400 fewer minutes of ice time (about 40 percent of that may be just on the penalty kill, though).

20. I never got around to discussing Colton Parayko’s new contract. Obviously, that deal for St. Louis is a huge win. It seems like he’s a unicorn in that both traditional analysts and those who use advanced metrics both agree that Parayko is an absolute stud. The fact that the Blues got him for the price they did is great for the team.

Fantasy-wise, however, there is still a lot of questions as to his value this year. DobberHockey’s own Steve Laidlaw weighed in on this recently:

@SteveLaidlaw: Parayko comes with plenty of upside should Alex Pietrangelo get hurt or something drastically changes. Here's your free player projection on these two: I have Pietrangelo at 51 points and Parayko at 38 for this coming season.

This is an interesting discussion for a couple of reasons. First, we have to think along with the organization. As Steve pointed out in his thread, after the Kevin Shattenkirk trade last year, it was Pietrangelo, and not Parayko, who took over primary power-play duties. Does this continue? The team frequently used four forwards on the top PP unit, which means it’s one or the other getting prime minutes. If Parayko doesn’t get that ice time, how far can he improve on the 10 power-play points? Consider:

Parayko had 141 power-play minutes last year. There were 51 defenseman that had between 50-150 power-play minutes in 2016-17. Of those 51 defensemen, none had more than 12 PP points, and four cracked double-digits. Conversely, of the 28 defensemen with at least 200 PP minutes, only one blue liner had fewer than 12 power-play points, and well over half of them (18 out of 28) had at least 15 PP points.

If Pietrangelo is the top PP guy, how many minutes does Parayko get, and is it enough to improve meaningfully on the 10 PPP he had last season? Probably not.

Fantasy owners have a decision to make on Parayko. The 24-year-old was probably drafted around the 30th defenceman off the board in fantasy drafts last year (yes, it would vary from league to league, I’m just talking about an average). Undoubtedly, that ADP will be higher this year and he should easily end up somewhere in the top-25. If he gets top power-play time, he can probably end up somewhere from 45-50 points. If he does not, it’s probably 35-40. Where are you willing to draft him?

Have a good week, folks!!