Which forwards offer the biggest risk/reward for 2017-18?

Good news Dobberites – the gift that keep on giving is back for a third week! That’s right, this year we’re doing three Summer Cage Match Tournaments! For our final installment, we’re shifting away from the “peak” theme of the past two weeks to determine which forwards represent the biggest risk/reward gambles for this season, a.k.a., the 2017-18 fantasy feast or famine forwards!

This Week’s Tournament – Risk/Reward Skaters

In fantasy there are “steady eddies” who, barring injury, have the ice time, secure line placement, and of course talent, to reliably produce a similar amount of points each season. But what would fantasy be without forwards who seemingly could just as easily flop as could explode for great production. In other words, the 2017-18 risk/reward (or feast or famine) forwards.

Who are you actually voting for? Simply put, you should vote for the forwards on the list you think are the biggest gambles for this season, namely the ones whose 2017-18 upside “reward” total would be at least DOUBLE their downside “risk” total. Do the math, and cast your votes. For example, if you think there’s just as much chance one of these forwards could score only 30 points as there is for him to tally 60 or more, then vote for him. Or 40 points and 80 points, or 25 points and 50 points, or 35 points and 70 points – you get the idea. As with the previous two polls, I’m allowing multiple votes, so you can vote for as many (or as few) of the 20 choices as you think meet the “double” criteria.

Exclusions and Voting Factors

There are three categories of players whom I excluded as voting choices – (1) defensemen, (2) Vegas Golden Knights, and (3) those who played fewer than 40 games last season. Why omit them? With respect to d-men, what it boiled down to was an abundance of forwards versus only a handful of what I thought might be viable rearguard choices (including, in my opinion, Justin Schultz, Noah Hanifin, and Michael Del Zotto), so I figured let’s just stick with forwards. In terms of why no Vegas players or forwards who played fewer than 40 games last season, my reasoning is there’s so much “unknown” factor in those cases I was afraid it would skew the voting.

Also similar to the prior two Cage Matches – and perhaps even more so in this case – factors such as contract status, likelihood of being traded, injury risk, and individual/team situation are relevant. In other words, don’t vote in a vacuum or with your heart– this calls for analysis of the totality of a player’s current circumstances. The results will be fantasy relevant for Dobberites, so please take this seriously.

Voting will take place in DobberHockey forums. I’ll put a direct link at the bottom of the column.

The Choices

The voting choices are listed below, in alphabetical order.

Sven Andrighetto – Nearly every season a deadline deal results in a young player doing well on a new squad. Last season’s success story was Andrighetto, who posted 16 points in 19 games after being dealt to the offense-starved Avs. Poolies can’t help but wonder whether Andrighetto simply caught fire for the last chunk of the season or gave poolies a preview of a player who can produce over the long haul. With the Avs not having improved in the offseason and perhaps even poised to still unload one of their top six forwards before the end of this coming season, there’s a good chance Andrighetto will receive similarly beneficial ES and PP deployment as last season, except perhaps without enough surrounding talent to help similarly bolster his stats.

Alexander Burmistrov – The former top ten pick gets a chance in Vancouver to build off his 14 points in 26 games after coming to the Coyotes. And fortunate for him, the Canucks can use all the offensive talent they can get, virtually ensuring Burmistrov will be locked into a top six role with ample PP time. On a one year deal for less than $1M, Burmistrov has every motivation to put forth his best possible effort. Similar to Andrighetto, however, a big question is whether there’s enough surrounding talent in Vancouver to help translate his skills to the scoresheet.

Alex Galchenyuk – What do you get when you have a player with elite offensive talent who wants to play center, yet who’s downright terrible at draws and now skates for a defense-first coach? We saw the outcome in the last couple of months of 2016-17 with Galchenyuk, and it wasn’t pretty. Yet Galchenyuk was not moved this offseason and inked a new deal which, although not for huge money, is certainly more than a team would pay a forward who’ll be relegated to the bottom six. No doubt Galchenyuk has the ingredients to be a 70+ point player – just look at his pre-injury pace from last season. On the other hand, if Claude Julien cannot tolerate his shortcomings, he’ll struggle mightily.

Jake Guentzel – Including the playoffs, Guentzel tallied 45 points in his final 49 games of 2016-17. He had chemistry with Sidney Crosby, played hard, and scored tough and important goals. But before we anoint him a future star, let’s remember two things. First, although names and faces have changed over the years, the Pens have nearly always used a “mule” on their PP1, and that role is seemingly filled by Patric Hornqvist, with whom the team had its highest 5×4 shooting percentage in 2016-17. That would leave no room for Guentzel, and severely hurt his chances at top production. Second, before Guentzel shined in the playoffs all the talk in fantasy was over Conor Sheary (spoiler alert – he makes the list too), who promptly disappeared in the playoffs. Being a Pen winger can be a curse and a blessing, since you can play with the likes of Crosby and Malkin, yet those two are so talented that forwards rarely find a home alongside them, making the likes of Guentzel and Sheary high-risk, high-reward gambles.

Travis Konecny – Although the exodus of Brayden Schenn also brought centerman Jori Lehtera to town, make no mistake that the deal wouldn’t have been possible without the Flyers having full confidence in Konecny being able to step up. Still – Lehtera’s presence does cloud the top six picture, as does that of Sean Couturier. But Konecny is seemingly skilled enough to be able to break through, leaving poolies to wonder if 2017-18 will be the year he emerges or instead another season where circumstances lead to him still spinning his wheels.

Jussi Jokinen – Before we write off Jokinen because he was bought out this summer and enters 2017-18 at age 34, let’s remember a player by the name of Ray Whitney. It seemed like every time Whitney was dealt or went to a new team he given up for fantasy dead, yet he managed to score 77 points for the Hurricanes at age 35, then 77 again three seasons later for the Coyotes, and ultimately 29 points in 32 games at age 40 for the Stars before finally hitting a wall. Could Jokinen be the new Whitney, what with having tasted success for each of his teams in his career and now joining a high-powered Oiler offense? It’s hard to say, and a lot has to do with how the Oilers will use him, hence the risk/reward label.

Dylan Larkin – Normally you hear about sophomore slumps for defensemen, not forwards. And in Larkin’s case the slump was worse than it would otherwise first appear, since going back to his rookie season Larkin actually has only 39 points in his last 106 games after 38 in his first 54. Thus, with his track record it’s pretty easy to see why he’s among the choices here.

Patrick Marleau – With what the Leafs are paying Marleau, and Mike Babcock’s past favorable usage of him on the international stage, all the ingredients are there for Marleau to have a very productive season. Yet Babcock is all business and won’t let Marleau’s bloated salary keep him in a coveted spot if he fails to perform up to par. The question thus becomes whether Marleau has enough left in the tank to produce at a top level, and doesn’t get weighed down by his now fatter wallet.

Patrick Maroon – If we didn’t need more proof that Marleau could see his seemingly secure spot vanish, we need look no further than Milan Lucic and his dream fantasy gig alongside Connor McDavid being usurped by the much cheaper and far less credentialed Maroon. Yet much like in Pittsburgh, a player who hits the Edmonton line lottery could then be on the outside looking in mere days or weeks later. As well as Maroon and McDavid have gelled, it’s hard to envision a scenario where Milan Lucic doesn’t get an extended second look with McDavid, thus making Maroon a feast or famine fantasy candidate.

Vladimir Namestnikov – With Jonathan Drouin gone and no major free agent acquisitions, there’s a spot up for grabs in the Tampa top six. Although Namestnikov comes without the pedigree and large salary of many other contenders, he also happened to show excellent chemistry with Steven Stamkos, with Tampa averaging 5.71 goals per 60 minutes of 5×5 time when the two shared the ice, compared to 3.84 for Stamkos overall. What remains to be seen, however, is not only whether that chemistry was just a function of small sample size and, of even more concern, whether Namestnikov will get a chance to line up Stamkos enough to see if the chemistry is still even there.

Alexander Radulov – Anyone who feels confident in being able to predict Radulov’s 2017-18 output either has a better crystal ball then the rest of us or, more likely, is just making an educated guess. On the one hand, he’s apparently going to be slotted alongside Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn at both even strength and on the power play, which is a recipe for top production if there ever was one. Yet we can’t overlook that Radulov is now a very rich man who managed to vanish for a large chunk of 2016-17 even when he was playing for his very future. What will happen with that future now 100% secure? Plus, there’s new Stars coach Ken Hitchcock, who any former Nikita Filatov owner knows all too well does not have a great track record with “enigmatic” Russian players. One thing is for sure – this won’t be dull to watch unfold.

Nick Ritchie – In compiling 28 points last season, Ritchie had two streaks of four points in three games and four multi-point games overall, offering a glimpse of the rugged skill the Ducks envisioned when they selected him tenth overall in 2014. The issue is whether Ritchie can force the team’s hand this season in order to land a consistent top-six shift, or whether instead his physical game will once again be relegated to the bottom six for the majority of 2017-18.

Bobby Ryan – Talk about a Jekyll and Hyde season for Ryan, who managed only 25 points in 62 regular season games, then exploded for 15 in just 19 playoff contests. Most poolies are rightfully skeptical that his 2017-18 can be anything like his playoff run, particularly since he’d been in the 48-56 point range in his three prior Senators campaigns. But stranger things have happened, and thus he’s a risk/reward candidate for the upcoming season.

Patrick Sharp – With Sharp and Brandon Saad back in Chicago, the team is hoping to relive its glory days. Saad is smack in the middle of his prime, so it makes sense from that perspective; however, Sharp is now 35 and looked more like 45 last season with Dallas. Still – he’s only one season removed from 55 points and scored 78 with the Hawks as recently as 2013-14. Of course he’s also signed to a salary of less than $1M, so the team could easily look past him if he can’t recapture his past success.

Conor Sheary – A lot of what applies to Sheary was discussed above with Guentzel, except Sheary went from red hot to ice cold. Still – he did put up four points in his last seven playoff contests after a lengthy scoring drought and just inked a three-year deal with an AAV of $3 million. But overall Sheary carries at least the same risks as Guentzel; and most likely even if one of the two happens to succeed, that would likely mean the other won’t. In other words, the fantasy success train in Pittsburgh most likely has at most one seat up for grabs and perhaps might even be already sold out and not accepting new passengers.

Ryan Strome – On paper Strome’s situation arguably improved this offseason more so than anyone else on the list, what with going from a misfit in New York to a rebirth at only age 24 on a team poised to be an offensive juggernaut. Yet it takes more than just walking into a golden opportunity in order for someone to succeed: The player he was dealt for (Jordan Eberle) is a proof positive of that. Plus, with Strome being able to play both wing and center, he could end up moving from line to line.

Jimmy Vesey – While Vesey knew what he was in for when he chose the Rangers and their balanced offensive system, he – and poolies who own him – likely figured his rookie campaign would amount to more than a mere 27 points. He enters 2017-18 amid questions as to whether he’ll join the list of college UFAs who ultimately disappoint in the NHL, or instead ratchet up his production dramatically as a sophomore. Time will tell.

Radim Vrbata – The other ageless wonder on the list, Vrbata steps into the spot Jokinen left in Florida. So can Vrbata post 60 points there, like Jokinen did just two seasons ago? Maybe, maybe not. Not only is Vrbata two years older than Jokinen, but Vrbata’s scoring last season came on a Coyotes team which had little choice but to give him all the productive ice time he could handle. While Florida would like nothing more than to see Vrbata excel, and there’s the matter of filling the ice time of also departed Reilly Smith and Jonathan Marchessault, the team also has younger players who they’re hoping will step up plus they brought back Evgeni Dadonov from a long tenure in the KHL and are paying him nearly double Vrbata’s salary.

Nail Yakupov – Still only 23, and, as no poolie can forget, a former first overall draft pick, Yakupov went from 31 points in 48 games as a rookie to 89 points in 244 games since then. But finally he’s in a spot where he can be all but assured of a top-six role and free rein to focus only on offense. The bad news is this is coming in Colorado, where Gabriel Landeskog and Matt Duchene – both former top three overall draft picks – have seen their scoring plummet of late.

Pavel Zacha – Last season Zacha quietly played 70 games and improved as the season wore on, putting together a six-game scoring streak in March, tallying 15 of his 24 points in his last 29 games of the season, and racking up 13 PPPts despite skating for only 35% of his team’s power-play time in the games he played. Most agree it’s only a matter of time before Zacha explodes; however, it’s not clear if he’ll get the chance to shine in 2017-18 nor that the team around him is the right fit for his dynamic style. He could just as easily finish in the 30s as the 60s, which is why he shows up on this list.

Voting

To vote, click on this link. Voting will remain open through Sunday August 6. As a reminder, you can vote for as many or as few players as you want, and you should vote for anyone whose 2017-18 upside (i.e., reward) is double the amount of points as their 2017-18 downside (i.e., risk). Next week it’s back to business as usual with a normal cage match. Look for more tournaments near the end of 2017.