Fisher, Chychrun, More Fantasy Mailbag Questions

A couple of news stories before we get into some more fantasy hockey questions…

Not a huge surprise, but Mike Fisher has officially announced his retirement from the NHL. The Nick Bonino signing appeared to be a sign that the Preds were moving on from Fisher. Remember when Fisher seemed like the only player that wanted a trade to Nashville? Things sure have changed now.

Jakob Chychrun recently underwent knee surgery after being injured in offseason activities. The Coyotes are expected to update his status during training camp. Five For Howling lists what could happen if Chychrun is forced to miss the start of the season. Kevin Connauton, who has some offensive upside, is one possibility for increased icetime. I would have to think Adam Clendening is as well, even though the Coyotes are already his sixth NHL team.

The Chychrun injury has already been updated in the Fantasy Guide. How can I tell? Updates are in blue.

Speaking of which, if you don’t have your Fantasy Guide yet, then what are you waiting for? Go get it by clicking on the link here. And while you’re at it, you may want to consider the Prospects Report (or a discounted Fantasy Pack of the two) or the Geek Draft Kit (also discounted if you purchase with the Draft Guide). And because they are downloadable, the news that you read about in the Ramblings will be updated in your Fantasy Guide.

A word of advice… please don’t wait until the day of your draft to purchase this. There’s too much content in there for you to review before your draft starts.

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On to more questions. Thanks everyone for your submissions, and I apologize that I still haven’t gotten to everyone’s questions by now. Check back tomorrow if I still haven’t covered yours.
 

What older player that had a down year (ie Kopitar, Giroux, Thornton, etc.) is the best bet to rebound.

— Tom Collins (@DH_newfcollins) July 31, 2017

Of the players you mentioned, I would say that the least likely to rebound would be Joe Thornton. The now 38-year-old Thornton’s age-related decline was more like a jump off a cliff, so it’s more likely that we see the 50-point 2016-17 version of Thornton than the 82-point 2015-16 version going forward. 

The same could be said about Daniel Sedin and Henrik Sedin. While it’s possible that one or both could rebound slightly from last season’s underwhelming point totals, both players have experienced scoring declines over each of the past two seasons. Currently entering the final year of their contracts, it’s possible that this season could be their last in the NHL.

But what about Thornton’s former teammate Patrick Marleau? The Leafs are an up-and-coming unit of young scorers, and Marleau’s contract and familiarity with Mike Babcock suggest he will be used in key situations. I wrote more about the Marleau move to Toronto here.

Let’s get a little younger, though. At age 29, Anze Kopitar still has Father Time on his side. With Darryl Sutter gone and offensive coordinator Pierre Turgeon on board, the Kings are more likely to focus on offense this season. In addition, Kopitar’s shooting percentage last season was four points lower than his career average of 12 percent. A return to at least 60 points seems likely.

Claude Giroux is also in a similar boat to Kopitar. He is the same age (29), and his 7 percent shooting was three points lower than his career average. However, Giroux’s goal and point totals have been trending in the wrong direction for the past three seasons, so the signs of a player in early decline are there.

Patrice Bergeron is another possibility. I’ve always assumed that Bergeron is a better real-life player than fantasy player. His struggles last season can be attributed to a dismal first half (24 points in 49 games), but he was a point-per-game player after the All-Star break (28 points in 29 games). His shooting percentage was also down 3 percent last season over his career average, although because he’s now 32 years old it’s not as likely to trend upward either.

I have a feeling that if you’re looking for the safer picks, Kopitar is more likely to bounce back, followed by Bergeron. But since Giroux has more offensive upside based on career highs, his potential bounce-back could be higher if he can find the form that he displayed earlier in his career. 
 

Who do you think will get more points over the next two years – Hischier, Patrick, or Guentzel?

— Kruisin on the Brink (@KruisinBrink) July 31, 2017

My initial reaction is that because they are so highly touted as the first and second overall picks, Nico Hischier and Nolan Patrick could turn out to be better players than Jake Guentzel long-term. However, there could be a learning curve at least in both Hischier’s and Patrick’s first season. This was a learning curve that Guentzel passed with flying colors. So I’m going to place Guentzel (33 points in 40 regular-season games, 21 points in 25 playoff games) at the top of this list.

As someone who had the good fortune of being able to draft Nolan Patrick in a keeper league, I can say that I’m very excited about his future. But I wonder how much his injury last season has stalled his development. Patrick is currently attending the World Junior Summer Showcase, a development camp for the World Junior Tournament. This is not to say he will play in the tournament, but if he is unable to make the Flyers or his role is limited early on, the idea of playing in a tournament that he missed last season might be too tempting to pass up.

So as difficult as it is to project rookies, I’m going to go Guentzel, then Hischier, then Patrick. This prediction is heavily weighted toward the first season, but that’s because 2018-19 is more unknowable than 2017-18 is.
 

Top 5 potential breakout players this season? https://t.co/ueDLDOZ8Qz

— Jimmy S. 🇨🇦 (@doublejspencer) July 31, 2017

I would have to assume breakout candidate means largest potential point increases, or more broadly the largest leaps in fantasy value. So here’s five players who you should expect greater returns from, even if they are not necessarily a “top 5.”

When picking scorers for the coming season (the old “pick any 20 players for your hockey pool” comes to mind), it’s easy to scan down the list for the top scorers from last season. So it might be easy to miss a name like Jack Eichel, who missed 21 games last season because of injury. Yet Eichel scored 57 points in just 61 games, giving him 0.93 points per game (11^th in the NHL last season). With a full season and another year under his belt, Eichel should make a push for 80 points this season, which is significant since he has yet to reach 60 points in a season.

I mentioned Guentzel in the previous question. Project his 2016-17 total over a full season and you’re looking at 67 points. Thanks to the Stanley Cup playoffs, Guentzel probably won’t fly under the radar this season. But he’s right there in this discussion.

Jonathan Huberdeau has been in the league for five seasons, yet we haven’t yet seen him reach 60 points. Last season may have been the year, but he missed the majority of the season after his leg was sliced during a preseason game. Huberdeau was able to salvage 26 points from the 31 games he played, which would put him on pace for 68 points over a full 82-game season. This is the season that he finally breaks 60 points.

I wrote about Scott Darling in a Ramblings earlier this summer (and actually, why I may not like him as much as you do). But the real potential for breakout is there. Darling is finally a starter, he has posted solid numbers as a backup, and the Hurricanes have a underrated strong defense. Draft him as your number two goalie in a 12-team league and you’ll be satisfied.

Finally, two for the price of one. I’ll also touch on my most recent previous Ramblings to mention Vadim Shipachyov and Evgeny Dadonov. Both didn’t play in the NHL last season, but both KHL veterans should slide into top-6 roles with their respective clubs. So both are players you shouldn’t forget about come draft day.

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