As nerdy as it sounds to say, I always look forward to the right-wing position (in hockey! let’s not get political here) more than others when projection time comes around. For basically the last decade at left wing, it’s been Alex Ovechkin, and then a handful of elite players behind him that have emerged at that time. At centre, it’s been Sidney Crosby, and then a handful of elite players behind him that have emerged at that time. At right wing, though, it’s been more open over the last 10 years. Sure, Patrick Kane is there now, but it’s easy to forget that for three straight 82-game seasons between 2011-2015 he failed to crack 70 points and was a second- or third-round pick. Steven Stamkos could be considered a right winger depending on how leagues assigned positional eligibility. But there have been years where it’s Corey Perry, or Jarome Iginla, or Martin St. Louis, or Rick Nash, or a bevy of other players that have been top right wingers.

All this is to say is that, until recently, it’s been fun to analyze because it hasn’t always been the same guy at the top of the list.

Here are some guys that caught my eye for their right-wing rankings on Yahoo. These are using standard roto categories (goals, assists, shots on goal, plus/minus, penalty minutes, and power-play points), and I’m assuming 12-team leagues.

Mitchell Marner – 31^st overall

I found it kind of curious that Marner would be ranked ahead of William Nylander here. Of course, the Big Three from Toronto’s forward group are all probably going to be drafted inside the top-50 with Auston Matthews easily in the top-10. The more interesting discussion is between Marner and Nylander.

Both Marner and Nylander had 61 points last year. Marner had 19 goals, Nylander had 22. One difference that stood out is the shots; Marner managed 2.29 per game with Nylander at 2.53. That might not seem huge, but that’s an extra 20 shots and perhaps 2-3 goals over the course of a full season. Nylander also shot a fair bit more at five-on-five on a per-minute basis than Marner did. Marner, on the other hand, had a considerably higher first-assist rate than Nylander did, leading to a considerably higher points/60 minutes.

Despite that shot difference, there were a lot of similarities in the seasons. Between the two however, one of them will likely be playing with Tyler Bozak again, and the other with Auston Matthews. To me, that’s the tie-breaker. The Leafs were a team that consistently ran similar lines all year, and Nylander stayed with Matthews (largely) once he was put there. The tiebreaker is who the line mates will be, and Nylander has a huge leg up here.

I do want to hear from the community on this, though. If you had to pick between the two, would you rather have Marner in the third round or Nylander in the fourth?

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Blake Wheeler – 39^th overall

Fantasy sports is always about the up-and-coming players. With the group of rookies the NHL had last year, hockey is no exception. Sometimes it can lead to consistent players getting overlooked, and I think Wheeler falls into this category.

Here is the list of players over the last four years to have at least one season of 25 goals, 35 assists, 40 penalty minutes, and 2.5 shots on goal per game. It includes the number of times they’ve done it:

When you do something that only Jamie Benn has done over a four-season span, it speaks to remarkable consistency.

This is why the ranking here is a bit curious. A very good case could be made that Wheeler should be a second-round pick. Maybe he doesn’t have the pure upside to be a top-5 player, but with the track record he has, it seems pretty certain he won’t finish outside the top-50. He’s a safety pick; a guy you know that, as long as he’s healthy, will give you the points you need.

Wheeler checks all the boxes; he gets loads of ice time, has a secure lineup slotting, should be playing with a very talented centre, and has a long history of top-end fantasy success. If I can wait on a right winger and grab Wheeler in the third round, I will take that every time. 

Mike Hoffman – 67^th overall

If you look at the Yahoo RW rankings, Hoffman comes it at kind of the top of the third tier along with guys like Nylander and Corey Perry. Hoffman is coming off his best point-production year with 61, though his goals and shots per game declined ever so slightly.

Hoffman is a guy I struggled with drafting in the first six rounds. This isn’t a sleight on him; I do think he can be (and has proven to be) a 25-goal, 55-point player in this league. What I struggle with is that his roto value was largely carried last year by plus/minus and power-play production. Ottawa kind of played above their heads last year, and will be hard-pressed to repeat their performance. That worries me for plus/minus. Hoffman in particular on the power play was an extreme outlier on the team; he had 26 PPPs, no other forward had more than 20, and only two had more than 10 (Kyle Turris, 17, and Mark Stone, 14). As far as points per 60 minutes go on the PP, he was at 6.68, and no other forward was over 4.10.

That Hoffman was a focal point on the PP makes sense given his scoring prowess, but it worries me that for a middle PP unit, he racked up so many points. I would not be surprised to see that come down closer to 20 this season rather than staying over 25.

I really do like Hoffman as a player and as a fantasy player. I just worry about so much of his value last year being tied up in categories I think regress this year. There’s probably nothing wrong in taking him in the sixth round, but I don’t think there’s upside.

Jordan Eberle – 99^th overall

When you’re wrong, you’re wrong, and my biggest miss last year was easily Eberle. I thought he’d cruise to be a top-75 fantasy player, and had way more upside beyond that. That did not work out.

Luckily for us, Eberle is getting another kick at the can with one of the elite centres in the NHL. What worries me is there doesn’t appear there will be much of a discount at the draft table compared to last year. Remember when people thought Andrew Ladd was going to be great alongside John Tavares?

I wrote at some length nearly three months ago about why I thought Eberle’s season last year was a bit of an aberration, and maybe there was some bad luck involved. That’s what makes this ranking so difficult. If he can regain his form for most of his career where he looked like a perennial 25-goal scorer, he could have a great production season alongside Tavares (especially considering the power-play time). If it was, however, the start of his decline, then he is way overvalued.

Fantasy owners will have a decision to make if Eberle is going around the top-100 players. Going into his age-27 season, are Eberle’s best days behind him, or will a move to a new team with an elite centre help him find his prior form? Quite honestly, I don’t think there’s a right answer, and can’t fault anyone for either passing on him or drafting him at this position.

Mats Zuccarello – 146^th overall

This is far too low for Zuccarello. Maybe he can’t be the 25-goal guy he was a couple years ago, but he’s only turning 30 years old and has at least 59 points in three of his last four seasons.

Even with just 15 goals last year shooting a career-low 7.9 percent, Zuccarello was still a top-75 skater in roto formats. The concern could be that Derek Stepan was traded, and he was the centre with whom Zuccarello spent most of his time with. However, he still gets Mika Zibanejad, a solid offensive forward in his own right. Either way, the Swiss winger should lead the team, or be close to leading the team in ice time.

Even if things like his plus/minus regress a bit, he can still easily be a top-125 player. This is a team that will be more mobile on the blue line which should help generate some more offence. At an ADP outside of the top-12 rounds, this is an easy selection to make as a second right winger on fantasy rosters.

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Previous Ramblings covering the other forward positions:

Centre

Left Wing