Has Rickard Rakell now surpassed Mike Hoffman in fantasy value?

Not only are the DobberHockey Fantasy Guide and Draft List (available for purchase here) the best fantasy hockey resources in the known universe, they’re also a great way for me to pick offseason Cage Matches. Take today’s battle for example – Mike Hoffman vs. Rickard Rakell. The Guide predicts they’ll score within a handful of points of each other, so I figure that makes them worthy opponents to enter the Cage Match!

Career Path and Contract Status

Hoffman, 27, wasn’t drafted until he was nearly age 20 and only after posting 94 points in 62 games in 2008-09 in juniors, which virtually doubled his scoring from an identical number of games in his prior two juniors campaigns. He followed with 85 points in 52 games in his last junior season, but couldn’t parlay that momentum into immediate professional success, as he didn’t become an NHL regular until 2014-15, after 242 AHL games. Yet since then Hoffman has shined, having seen his assists and points increase with each season while posting 25+ goals in all three of his NHL campaigns.

Rakell, 24, was drafted 30th overall in 2011 after a lone OHL season (45 points in 49 games). He played both of his next two OHL campaigns at just above point-per-game output, and fared well enough in his first taste of AHL action in 2013-14 (37 points in 46 games) to earn an 18-game NHL cameo, during which he only managed four points. Nevertheless, like Hoffman, Rakell has been an NHL regular for the last three seasons and has seen his points total increase with each campaign, plus, in his case, also his goals. What poolies are still waiting for, however, is Rakell to stay healthy, as although he’s never played fewer than 71 games in an NHL season, he’s also never played more than 72.

Hoffman is signed through 2020 with a $5.187M cap hit, while Rakell makes less ($3.789M per season) and is under contract longer (through 2022). Both will be UFAs when their current deals expire.

Ice time

Both players having never averaged even 17:40 per game is seemingly a positive, since it allows realistic room for organic scoring improvement by them simply receiving more Ice time down the road. This is also validated by both having finished outside the top 80 in average Ice time per game among 70+ game forwards for 2016-17 but within the top 35 in points per 60 minutes (ahead of the likes of John Tavares, Joe Pavelski, Max Pacioretty, Sean Monahan, and Jeff Carter). Also, their overall Ice time isn’t as low as it seems, since neither one is saddled with any SH duty. Digging below the surface, however, reveals some useful – and, in the case of Rakell, not entirely positive – information.

Rakell ranks 5th among Ducks forwards in overall and PP ice time, suggesting he’s not yet a true “top line” player. Although that underscores his potential to see those numbers realistically improve, the problem is for overall Ice time three of the players ahead of him will be 32+ years old when the season starts. In fact, Rakell and Jakob Silfverberg are the only Ducks forwards under age 30 who have scored over 30 points in an NHL season. Therefore, if Rakell sees his ice times improve it will likely mean he’ll be relied upon to step into the role of creating offense, and it’s not yet clear whether he’s indeed that type of player.

Also, one of the players above Rakell in power-play time was Patrick Eaves, who is positioned to pose a more significant threat to Rakell than might first appear. After Eaves arrived, Rakell had more than twice as many games below his season average for percentage of available power-play time that he skated (46.5%) than above, and even more games below his season-long percentage for total ice time skated (28.6%). Thus, in view of the totality of data, Rakell’s ice time situation looks less promising than it might first appear.

Things are better for Hoffman. Although 17:35 per game put him within the top three Ottawa forwards, the two ahead of him each had 18:30+ of non-shorthanded Ice time per game, so he’s not maxed out in terms of ice time. Beyond that – the two (Kyle Turris, Mark Stone) are 28 and 25 years old respectively, underscoring that Ottawa’s forward core is well younger than Anaheim’s. Also, Hoffman saw his scoring increase from an 82 game rate of 62 points in 2015-16 to 67.5 points in 2017-18 despite essentially no added overall ice time. In short, his ice time and scoring progression check out, and apparently leave room for further gains.

Secondary Categories

Both have been fairly consistent in physical metrics, aside from a big penalty minute jump for Hoffman last season and a sizable gain in hits for Rakell in 2015-16. Just as Rakell’s hits came back to earth, so too I’m guessing will Hoffman’s penalty minute numbers. Overall, Rakell is a more helpful in rough and tumble categories, while Hoffman is a bit of a drag, even for a scorer.

For the production-affecting metrics of SOG and PPP, Rakell has shown slow but steady progress. It’s a good sign to see Rakell has made gains here to roughly match his increasing ice time, although the caveats noted above regarding his ice time could likewise inhibit his outputs in these areas.

Hoffman was able to maintain a SOG pace over three pear game for a second straight season. That’s an important threshold, since if we look at the just 14 other players who likewise had 3.0 or more SOG per game in both the last two seasons, all but one (Patric Hornqvist) have scored at least 63 points in an NHL season and ten have reached the 70+ point mark at least once.

In terms of power-play points, Hoffman’s 2016-17 rate of 0.35 per game does jump off the page; however, not only did he receive 22% more power-play time in 2016-17 than 2015-16, he also made nearly as large of a leap from 2014-15 to 2015-16. But we must come to grips with the reality that he’s either close to his likely peak in this area, or even at risk of dropping. The good news is if his power-play production does fall, we saw above that he could experience some realistic even strength ice time gains. However, if those gains have to help offset a decrease in power-play scoring, that would make Hoffman’s path to 70+ points more difficult.

Luck-Based Metrics

Avid readers will note that I’ve added average shot distance and secondary assists percentage as new metrics. These will help gauge whether a player may have lucked into, respectively, more goals and assists than he should’ve.

The most glaring number for each is 2016-17 team shooting percentage at 5×5, since NHL average generally hovers around 9.0%. Rakell’s personal and team shooting percentages have been rising each season, which to me tells a believable story of a player who’s getting better, as opposed to a lot luckier. Yet still, Rakell’s personal shooting percentage is unsustainable. Even accounting for the fact that top goal scorers have a higher percentage than most, Rakell’s 18.6% is too high; after all, Rakell’s full season goal scoring pace from 2016-17 was 38 goals, and none of the 18 instances of 38+ goal scorers in the past four seasons has a personal shooting percentage that high. That being said, half of the 18 were between 15.3% and 18.2%, so we shouldn’t count on his shooting percentage cratering, especially given the upward trend from season to season.

Hoffman’s 10.87% team shooting percentage also can be somewhat justified since he reached near that level previously and he’s now “run high” in each of his three seasons. Some players are simply cut from that type of cloth; and in Hoffman’s case, the risk of his team shooting percentage (not to mention his production) cratering is all the less in view of his stable personal shooting percentage.

Their IPPs are consistent, although their chance to become 70+ point scorers is lessened by the fact that they’re not consistently above the 70% threshold usually seen with top producing fantasy forwards. On a positive note, both continued their year-to-year scoring gains despite their OZ% dropping.

Rakell’s average shot distance and secondary assists totals both have dropped with each passing season. His ASD might have reached a realistic low, which is a possible drawback in that it might make it harder to see an increase in goals, but also a positive in that with three years at less than 28 feet it’s clear he’ll continue to put himself in position to put the puck in the net. His secondary assist rate having dropped each season, while a function of him scoring more goals, is also indicative of someone who could luck into more points via secondary assists in the future.

Hoffman’s ASD and secondary assist percentage have bounced around a bit more, but also held fairly stable overall. While many might have envisioned Hoffman as a possible 30-35+ goal scorer after he potted 29 in his second season, it’s unlikely he’ll reach that level given his ASD. In fact, Hoffman’s 34.9 ASD for 2016-17 was the 13th highest among all NHL forwards who played 60+ contests last season, and only one of the 12 with a higher ASD (Patrick Laine) scored 30+ goals. On the plus side, Hoffman’s lower than normal secondary assist rate likewise suggests he still has room to luck into more points.

Who Wins?

Overall, I’m giving this match to Hoffman. Neither player is in danger of seeing his production drop, but where concern lies is in whether they can enjoy scoring gains going forward. Hoffman still has room for his overall ice time to grow organically, which in turn could lead to more points and thus offset (or even outpace) any drop in his power-play points. Plus, his very high team shooting % for 2016-17 was less aberrational.

Rakell’s ice times weren’t great to begin with, and the fact they went down after the now re-signed Eaves landed in town is disconcerting. And by the time Eaves’ contract ends, the Anaheim forward core will be at or near their mid-30s, and Rakell might not be a player who can create scoring by himself, especially given his decent by not great IPP rates.