Ramblings: Rasmus Ristolainen, Sean Monahan, Jason Spezza and more (Sept. 5)

Neil Parker

2017-09-05

Sean Monahan - USA TODAY Sports Images

 

A quick follow up on the Thomas Vanek signing, there was a recent report from the Pass it to Bulis blog that Brock Boeser, Nikolay Goldobin, Jonathan Dahlan and Jake Virtanen are unlikely to crack the Opening Night roster following the acquisition of Vanek.

Boeser is of most interest because of his strong nine-game showing to finish last season and offensive upside. He spent the majority of his ice time with Bo Horvat last year, and the duo combined for an impressive 3.03 goals for per 60 minutes. It was a small sample size, but is still very telling. Before the Vanek signing, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that Boeser would begin the season in the Vancouver top-six mix.

So, while the acquisition complicates things for the youngster, how much stock should be put into Vanek? Is a 33-year-old veteran with a limited ceiling and oodles of holes in his game really going to push an emerging talent out of a job?

More will be clear over the coming weeks, but this could prove to be a buy-low spot for Boeser. After all, the Pass it to Bulis piece doesn't include anything from the organization. It's just a blog post.

 

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This is a solid — and quick — read on the Hurricanes. The point I'm taking away is something I've had in mind, but potentially not in the forefront enough: Carolina is weak up the middle.

Winning NHL teams have strong centers. In fact, the last time a team won the Stanley Cup without a star pivot was all the way back in 2002-03 season when the Devils ran out Scott Gomez, Joe Nieuwendyk and John Madden up the middle. Those three weren't exactly plugs, either.

Obviously, Carolina is more likely to miss the playoffs entirely than go on a deep playoff run, but it's still something that shouldn't be overlooked in regards to the 2017-18 Hurricanes. Jordan Staal has been relatively healthy and reliable throughout his career, and while his offensive ceiling is capped at this stage of his career, his possession game and ability to play against the opposition's top players has become extremely valuable. He needs to take a step forward offensively while maintaining his 200-foot game, and then Viktor Rask and/or Elias Lindholm also need to step up down the middle.

The potential is there. It is just going to be interesting to see if things can break right.

 

The same center concern could hinder the Rangers this year, too.

 

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Joe Haggerty broke down the Boston rookies competing for roster spots in this slideshow. He's been high on Anders Bjork, and notes that the Fighting Irish alum has been the best players both of the past two offseasons in Bruins development camp. That's a telling sign, and there's a better-than-zero shot that Bjork sees time in a top-six gig during training camp.

While Bjork is obviously off the map in most fantasy settings at this stage of the game, he could be a quick riser over the next five weeks. Additionally, there are spots open for him — or other youngsters — to seize. This could be a case of Haggerty being a little biased towards Bjork, but his belief in the 21-year-old winger has held steadfast over the past year.

 

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A few more deep dives …

 

Rasmus Ristolainen

Entering his age-23 campaign after consecutive 40-point showings, Ristolainen's going to be a coveted defenseman in drafts this fall. He was a cross-category machine last year with six goals, 39 assists, 25 power-play points, 186 shots, 58 PIM, 195 hits and 161 blocked shots while averaging 26:28 of ice time per game (including 3:12 with the man advantage). The only knock on Ristolainen's stat line was his minus-9 rating.

Still, there are a few concerns, and another step forward is far from guaranteed. To start, his 25 power-play points could be difficult to repeat. Additionally, of the 132 defensemen with at least 1,000 five-on-five minutes last year, Ristolainen's 0.64 points per 60 minutes ranked 95th. There's a case that improved even-strength production could offset the likely decline in power-play numbers, though. Still, there is also a decent chance new head coach Phil Housley cuts into Ristolianen's minutes slightly. Overall, more of the same is absolutely fine from the 22-year-old defenseman, and the Sabres as a team are heading in the right direction. It's probably just best not to pay for another step forward.

 

Sean Monahan

It took 27 games for Monahan to record his first multi-point showing last year and he had just six goals and five helpers during that stretch. However, the pivot caught fire and recorded 47 points — 21 tallies — through the next 51 games. He'll turn 23 in October and has averaged 26.8 goals per year since entering the league. Monahan has also posted 62, 63 and 58 points through his past three seasons, respectively. Additionally, with over 190 shots in each of the past three years, he offers a solid offensive floor.

The knock on Monahan is his underwhelming peripheral contributions. He rarely takes penalties and doesn't offer help in the blocked shots or hits columns, either. His numbers are also reliant on playing with Johnny Gaudreau. The duo posted 2.67 goals for per 60 minutes last year, but Monahan dipped to a 1.46 mark when he wasn't playing with Gaudreau. It's worth noting that Gaudreau also dropped to a 1.67 goals per 60 minutes away from Monahan. All said, while Monahan is much more valuable in points-only settings, a step forward is within reach considering last season's midseason surge and his career trajectory entering his prime.

 

Jason Spezza

The veteran center was just another Star done in by injuries last season, and he failed to reach the 60-point mark for the first time since the lockout-shortened 2012-13 campaign. However, being limited to just 68 games was the main culprit, as Spezza finished with 15 goals, 35 helpers and 19 power-play points. At 34, Father Time will continue to have a say in Spezza's results — both in regards to his health and scoring numbers. Additionally, his ice time and shots per game both dropped last year, which is definitely a concern heading into 2017-18.

While the acquisitions of Alexander Radulov and Martin Hanzal make the Dallas top-six group a little difficult to project, there is enough talent to spread around, and Spezza should maintain his role on the No. 1 power-play unit. Spezza also benefits from being eligible at right wing in some settings. There are some red flags, but the asking price isn't one of them, as the veteran should be available well into the middle rounds. With a cushy fantasy setup on a team with a high-octane offense, health will be the only thing that prevents Spezza from returning value on investment.

 

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Business is picking up now, Dobberheads.

 

 

6 Comments

  1. Striker 2017-09-05 at 08:43

    I think Boston’s top 6 is essentially set. The #2 LW spot is currently Vatrano’s to lose but over the course of the season wingers do get shuffled, although most teams keep specific pairings together like Marchand & Bergeron in Boston they are almost never broken up.

    Boston has room for a 3rd line LW & RW unless Spooner is pushed to the wing again in which case a #3 C with Spooner sliding to LW. I like Forsbacka-Karlsson as the most likely to make the Bruins, but Agostino; has to clear waivers to be sent down, Bjork, Senyshyn, Cehlarik & Heinen are all possibilities, there is only room for 2 until injuries hit.

    As for Carolina I like their C’s. Rask & Lindholm are young but bothl have serious growth potential. I had the same argument about Columbus last summer telling anyone & everyone that if you hadn’t locked up Wennberg you were missing the boat, he was going to be Columbus’s #1, he was the minute Johansen was traded. That said I prefer Lindholm at RW so if the right trade could be found that’s a possibility but it’s crowded at RW.

    Here is what I have so far.

    Aho/Skinner, Rask, Skinner/Aho.
    This line was put together late last season & it rocked, I believe Skinner moved to RW to accommodate Aho but Carolina isn’t a team I see play ofetn so it could have been the other way round.

    Teravainen, Lindholm, Williams.
    Teravainen can play any forward position including C & is a primed for a serious breakthrough.

    Nordstrom, Staal, Stempniak.
    Staal may plays as the #3 C but no forward see’s more icetime, he logs the hardest most important minutes.

    McGinn, Kruger, Ryan.
    Ryan can also play C.

    Spare. Jooris. Can play C or LW.

    Slavin, Faulk.
    Hanafin, Pesce.
    Fleury, TVR.
    Dahlbeck, Carrick.

    That is 1 of the top 5 bluelines in the NHL, potentially top 3.

    I have Carolina to make the playoffs this season as now constructed. They have the stud prospects, draft picks & cap space to do anything they want, if & when they decide to do so but I say stay the course, sneak into playoffs, use prospects to cover for injuries of which they have a ton.

  2. Striker 2017-09-05 at 09:09

    I have Boeser making the Canucks & challenging for the Calder. The acquisition of Vanek didn’t alter my view on this at all. Boeser will line up at RW with Baerteschi & Horvat for most of the season & should huit 20 goals & 45 points comfortably.

    Here’s what I have at present for Vancouver but the 3rd & 4th lines could shake out any # of ways & either Eriksson or Vanek should play RW with the Sedin’s, I assume it will be a revolving door between them & even Boeser at times as the wings get shuffled due to a multitude of issues, injuries, illness, hot & cold streaks, coaches tweaking etc. Again teams seem to like to deploy pairings in today’s NHL. The 3 set formation is like Cogliano, Kesler, Silfverberg that has been in play for years now is very rare.

    The position after a players name is an alternate position that could be played but I have made assumptions as to where I think they will play.

    Baertschi, Horvat, Boeser.
    Sedin, Sedin, Eriksson; LW.
    Granlund; C, Sutter; RW, Vanek; LW.
    Burmistrov; C, Gagner; RW, Dorsett.
    Spare. Gaunce.

    That means Vancouver will have to waive Rodin, Chaput, Megna & Boucher. All these players need to clear waivers as does Gaunce to be sent down. This could potentially factor into whether Boeser stays or goes but I would be shocked to see him sent down. The fans want youth injected into this line up, the building is empty & they are tired of what Benning & Linden keep rolling out.

    That said Benning has done a decent job this summer of improving the depth of this roster & I think they could surprise teams & at least compete for a playoff spot. His player acquisitions of Gagner, Del Zotto, Nilsson, Burmistrov & Wiercioch seriously improved the depth of this roster & all are in their late 20’s, Vanek helps as well & if out of the playoff picture come the trade deadline Vanek, Burmistrov, Wiercioch & Biega could potentially be jettisoned for futures.

    Ownership & management appear to be out of touch with what their fans want & being kind of competitive won’t fill all those paid for but empty seats. The player hurt by Vanek’s acquisition is Goldobin. No room at the Inn unless he kicks the door down. Even Boeser could see time in the minors briefly if he hits a bump in the road especially if he falters out of camp.

  3. Neil Parker 2017-09-05 at 09:43

    Thanks for the notes. No glaring disagreements. I’m with you completely with Carolina, and have been all summer. The center position could be their Achilles’, though.

    What do you have as the Boston top six?

    • Mark McAuley 2017-09-05 at 15:11

      All off-season I’ve been wondering if a deal sending Duchene to Carolina for a capable D man would make sense for both clubs. Carolina has enough talented D prospects that it could afford to make the move to upgrade, IMO. As for which Cane(s) would go in return, I haven’t the faintest idea. Faulk would make sense financially.

  4. Mathieu 2017-09-05 at 11:42

    When Striker adds comments like these, it’s like having two ramblings at once. This was a good day. Thanks guys.

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