In my Ramblings a few days ago I discussed how to search for value in drafts with one of the obvious categories to target being players who shot at an abnormally low rate compared to prior career norms. One player rebounding from a poor 2015-16 in 2016-17 that I mentioned was Torey Krug.

It was pointed out by a Twitter follower that including Krug as a rebound considering he still shot under four percent wasn’t really a rebound. That’s a fair point, given that he shot 6.6 percent over the first 160 games of his career. They also wanted to know what Krug had such a huge drop from 2011-2015 compared to the last two seasons. This is worth investigating.

The Bruins blue liner did double his goals from 2015-16 (4) to 2016-17 (8) while more than doubling his shooting percentage. It’s important to note that the entire difference was made on the power play – he actually scored one fewer five-on-five goal last year (2) than the year before (3). For that reason, let’s look at what he was doing from 2013-2015 that helped him score 16 goals at five-on-five against what he did from 2015-17 that contributed him to scoring just five.

First things first, as always, shot charts at five-on-five from HockeyViz going back four years:

Nothing changed dramatically from year to year. There are a few small changes from season to season like shooting more down the wall in 2014-15 or having more shots from the dot in 2016-17, but nothing as dramatic as shooting from inside the circle to outside, significantly more from the middle, or things of that nature.

Is it possible his shooting percentage is, at least in part, deliberate?

This would be very tricky to prove and I certainly won’t be able to do it in one Ramblings. In an illuminating article from last December in the Boston Globe, however, Krug discusses always having a shooting mentality. He discusses how the puck will either eventually start going in or as goalies become accustomed to his tendencies, other options will open up. One instance, he recalls, was a game against Philadelphia where he had been attempting shots often, and eventually a seam pass opened up to Brad Marchand forcing a big save from Philly goalie Steve Mason. In that game, Krug had two primary assists.

It’s that last sentence that I want to focus on. From 2013-15, when Krug was individually scoring more often at five-on-five, his primary assist rate was 0.23 per 60 minutes. From 2015-17, when Krug scored less often at five-on-five, his primary assist rate more than doubled to 0.51 per 60 minutes. This isn’t simply by being on the ice for a higher goal rate, either, as both 2015-16 (2.47) and 2016-17 (1.92) saw Krug on the ice for fewer goals scored per minute than either of 2013-14 (2.55) and 2014-15 (2.52).

Included with these shots not going in, obviously, is a commensurate rise in rebounds created.

Without getting into his head or manually tracking each shot attempt he’s taken in the last four years, it’s impossible to tell if he’s truly concerned with shooting percentage. He has seen a big rise in primary assist rates, though, and he mentioned already about how shooting often can open up other aspects of the game. That would be good news for his overall point totals but it makes me wonder if we’ll ever see the double-digit goal scoring with regularity again. It won’t matter much in most fantasy leagues so long as he’s cracking 50 points a year with stout shot and power-play point totals, but it is something to keep in mind for leagues that weight goals heavily.

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Hockey draft season is officially upon us with Labour Day in the rear-view mirror, so be sure to grab your copy of the Dobber Draft Guide in the Dobber Shop!

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When doing projections, one area that is *always* a struggle is projecting players coming off solid seasons due to injuries of teammates. Sometimes it hurts players when they lose a productive teammate, or specifically a line mate, for a significant amount of time, but it can also help players who find themselves moving up the depth chart. Just think of Justin Schultz and Kris Letang from this past campaign.

Another player fitting this bill is Tampa Bay’s Brayden Point.

The Lightning had centre depth, and then they lost Steven Stamkos for most of the year, Tyler Johnson for about 20 percent of the season, traded Valtteri Filppula at the Trade Deadline, and all this led to Point, a 20-year old rookie who was a third-round pick in 2014, playing over 17 minutes a game. He finished third among their regular forwards in five-on-five ice time per game.

But what about this year? Is Johnson the number-1 centre with Nikita Kucherov on his wing? Or do they slide Stamkos (as they have at times in the past) to the wing on the top line and shelter Kucherov? Is Johnson the number-2 centre playing behind Stamkos for the vast majority of the season? The answer to the above questions is likely the difference between Point playing with one of Stamkos or Kucherov, or playing with one of Ryan Callahan or JT Brown (or whoever).

At this moment, I’m leaning to the team running Point out as the third-line centre and that likely destroys any fantasy value he has in the majority of leagues. It’ll be hard for him to surpass last season’s totals, even if he plays somewhere around 80 games, playing in the bottom-six. That is why I find his average ranking being inside the top-200 over on Fantasy Pros a bit curious. It’s in the same range as rookies Nico Hischier and Nolan Patrick, veterans Rick Nash and Radim Vrbata, as well as other guys coming off solid seasons like Tanner Pearson and Jason Zucker.

I suppose where he ends up being drafted depends on the person drafting him. He can be a top-200 roto player if he can get top-six centre minutes as well as secondary power-play time. If he’s stuck in the bottom-six, though, considering he won’t be a guy to stuff peripherals, he’ll be very hard-pressed to live up to that draft slotting without injuries from other players again this year.

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It was revealed yesterday that Erik Karlsson “hasn’t done anything” since undergoing foot surgery back in June to repair torn tendons. Everyone remembers watching Karlsson limping on and off the ice during Ottawa’s Conference Final run in the spring, and it appears he may not be ready for the start of the regular season as a result.

Karlsson was pretty much a lock to be a second-round pick in fantasy drafts and it’ll be interesting to see if this changes anything in the coming week or so. I imagine we’ll get more news as the weeks progress, but not being not being ready for the opener is somewhat vague. Does he miss two games? Five? More? Keep in mind that he missed five games last year over the course of the year and was still a top-20 fantasy option. Unless something drastic changes in the next month, I would still be comfortable taking him in the back half of the second round.

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I get that Vegas is an expansion team and, historically, those teams haven’t fared well in their first seasons. For those that are subscribed to The Athletic (and you should be), I recommend going through Dom Luszczyszyn’s preview for the team’s upcoming season.

One thing I’ve noticed going through rankings is that I’m going to be higher on Vadim Shipachyov than others. This is a change from earlier in the summer when the team’s roster was unknown. I thought they would really mail in the first few seasons and just stockpile picks. They managed the latter to a degree, but they didn’t put together an awful team. A defence corps including Nate Schmidt, Shea Theodore, Colin Miller, and Brayden McNabb is a good start.

Shipachyov, however, is the team’s unquestioned top-line centre. I can’t fathom the ice time being balanced in Vegas this year like, say, the Rangers have been in recent seasons. The 30-year old Russian will be on the top line, I assume with James Neal, as well as heavily featured on the top power-play unit.

As mentioned often in these Ramblings, ice time creates a floor. At 18 minutes a game and 80 games played, a total of 1440 minutes would put Shipachyov among the top-60 used forwards last year. Of the 58 forwards to play at least that many minutes last year, two-thirds managed at least 55 points, and fewer than 14 percent managed under 50. Most of the guys that didn’t crack 50 points were second-line players who played the penalty kill, while the others played for New Jersey or Vancouver. The defence should be able to help move the puck in Vegas than either of those teams, so I’m more optimistic of that top line scoring this year than those respective top lines last year.

A 50-point season is a reasonable floor so long as he stays on the top line and top power play, and I’m betting he does. He may be more useful in points-only than roto leagues, but being a top-200 player is eminently doable in either format.

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While on the topic of Vegas, that defence situation is one to really keep an eye on as training camps get underway in a couple weeks. I know it was something written in these Ramblings months ago, but for a refresher: I still don’t think this team scores a lot this year. That would limit the fantasy utility of blue liners beyond the top PP unit. Just keep an eye on training camp PP tweets or reports to see who is playing where. I would wager that it’s Theodore that gets the first crack, but it could be a fluid situation week to week, let alone over the course of the year. I have no problem with following reports and using a late-round pick on he or Schmidt, but I don’t know if there’ll be more than one defenceman with enough fantasy value to be rostered in standard 12-team leagues at a time this season.