Matthews and Two Other Mystery Players, plus more…

In case you missed my recent articles on Sportsnet: My picks for late-round steals and players to beware of.

Just for you, the loyal Dobber Hockey reader, upon further research I’ve listed a few more bonus players to target or beware of. Remember that these aren’t necessarily sleepers or busts. They’re just players that I believe should either be ranked higher or lower by the fantasy hockey sites listed below. Feel free to draft any of these players, but do so in the right spot.

Auston Matthews (ADP – Yahoo: 4.7, ESPN: 20.3, Fantrax: 10.34)

I have a Yahoo draft in a few days. I don’t always know how these drafts play out, but I do know that I’ll be letting someone else draft Matthews at his average draft position. In fact, I think those drafting at ESPN are closer to the right answer than those at the other two sites.

If you take a closer look at Matthews’ projections in various categories, you’ll notice that he’s not elite yet, even though he’s being drafted that way. Yes, he’s on track to be one of the league’s top goal scorers if he hits the 40-goal mark. But should he fail to reach 40 assists (he recorded 29 last season), then he won’t likely finish in the top 50 in that category. To compare, 50 assists is well within reach for other elite options such as Connor McDavid, Patrick Kane, and Sidney Crosby. Even in Dobber’s points-only keeper rankings, Matthews is at #17, and that list doesn’t include goalies.

Are you in a league with peripheral categories? Drop Matthews even further. Yes, he could take 300 shots on goal, which would make him elite in that category. But with 14 penalty minutes last season, he’s a Lady Byng candidate. And his 21 hits last season was only a handful more than Phil Kessel’s total. His 61 blocked shots is better than many forwards, but it’s not high enough for him to be a multicategory stud.

Matthews is a bona fide rising NHL star. But at least for this season, let the Leafs fan in your league reach for him, particularly in Yahoo leagues. The options being drafted shortly after Matthews will provide more for your fantasy team.

*

Before I introduce the next players, I’m going to do a little Player A/Player B comparison. Totals are from last season.

Player B was clearly the better sniper last season, scoring more goals while taking more shots. Yet Player A is the better point producer (77 to 63), with most of that difference (12 of the 14 points) coming in power-play points. The other categories are too close to rank. As a result of the point total, Player A is being drafted higher than Player B. Much, much higher, in fact.

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

So what if I told you that Player A is Leon Draisaitl, and Player B is Jeff Skinner? Yes, I still think you should draft Draisaitl ahead of Skinner. But this is a clear case of one player being ranked too high and another player not being ranked high enough in multicategory leagues.

Leon Draisaitl (ADP – Yahoo: 17.2, ESPN: 23.6, Fantrax: 21.16)

Who wouldn’t want to draft McDavid’s most probable linemate? After all, fantasy hockey is all about line combinations. There’s no issue with Draisaitl’s points. He is projected to finish within the top 20 in the scoring race and could even finish within the top 10 riding shotgun with McDavid. Lots of points, and lots of power-play time. In pure points leagues, the ranking is justified.

But if you play any kind of rotisserie or head-to-head multicategory league, Draisaitl’s value starts to diminish. The 29 goals isn’t terrible, but his 172 shots on goal last season places him outside of the top 100 in that category. A 14 percent shooting accuracy demonstrates that he is an effective shooter, but he may need to find a way to increase that shot total if he is to maintain the goal total. Plus like Matthews, physical categories such as penalty minutes and hits are weak. 

For what we know, Draisaitl’s point total may climb even further. But for now, I’d rather wait another round or two than pay for him at his average draft value.

Jeff Skinner (ADP – Yahoo: 85.6, ESPN: 103.8, Fantrax: 82.69)

Is there a more underrated sniper in the league than Skinner? He has averaged 29 goals per season over his last four seasons. Over a similar number of games played, that’s ahead of Jeff Carter, Phil Kessel, and Blake Wheeler. I think there’s something to be said about playing in a market that doesn’t get a lot of national coverage in either the US or Canada. Same stretch of time (2013-14 to 2016-17): Skinner is seventh in the NHL with an average of 262 shots on goal, ahead of Wheeler, Sidney Crosby, Patrick Kane, Jamie Benn, and Vladimir Tarasenko.

True, Skinner’s assist total is weak. So is his power-play point total, which was actually in the single digits in both 2014-15 and 2015-16. He’s also been a minus player in each of his last six seasons. But with Carolina potentially now a team on the rise, it’s possible that both the plus/minus and the power-play point totals will improve. Skinner has already played seven NHL seasons already, but also keep in mind that he’s only 25. But for now, if you can find other players that will offset Skinner’s current weaknesses, you’ll find Skinner to be a great value if you can snag him close to his average draft position.

*

Troubleshooting tip of the day: If you’ve purchased the Fantasy Hockey Geek, take a moment and double-check the league settings you’ve entered. Even if you first purchased the product in a previous season and your league settings haven’t changed, it’s still worth your while.

I generated custom stats for one of my leagues recently (G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, SOG, W, GAA, SV%, SO) and the results looked a little wonky. As in, the top-ranked goalie (Matt Murray) was ranked 165 on my overall list. Who’s going to wait that long to draft a goalie? There’s only backup goalies and maybe weak starters left at that point. As well, Mike Matheson was ranked at 40 on my overall list. His projected shots on goal total (235) was high for a defenseman, but his other stats in this league were relatively ordinary.

When I checked the league stats, I found that I had entered 16 teams for this league. I had built the league so it could accommodate 16 teams, but we still have only 12 teams and I don’t believe that will increase. I changed the settings back to 12 and regenerated my rankings. The rankings looked a little more normal with several goalies listed in my top 20. Murray was in the top 10, while Matheson was ranked at 165 (eerie coincidence, I know).

As one of my high school computer science teachers used to say, garbage in, garbage out.

*

One more offering from Sportsnet: This time it’s Steve Laidlaw’s Perfect Fantasy Hockey Draft. So if a commenter said that he must have been drunk when he picked his team, does that mean he did a great job?

In my last Ramblings I asked whether an NHL player would consider taking a knee during the national anthem(s). That player could be Joel Ward (Sportsnet). Given some of the racist crap that was posted on Twitter about him following his Game 7 overtime goal a few years ago, Ward has every right to speak out.

On a lighter note… the first-ever Vegas Golden Knights goal scored at T-Mobile Arena.
 

End 1 Period

Us: 1
Them: 1

Mood: 🤷

🎥Cody Eakin scores first-ever Golden Knights goal at @TMobileArena. pic.twitter.com/71ojha0TLT

— Vegas Golden Knights (@GoldenKnights) September 27, 2017

As someone who once watched a hockey game in Vegas (Sharks vs. Ducks rookie game in 2008), I never thought I’d see the NHL come to Vegas. I know at least some of you won’t agree, but I love the unis and the grey helmets too. Hockey is a great look for the Entertainment Capital of the World.

*

For more fantasy hockey information, follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding.