Over/Under Prop Results 2016-17

steve laidlaw

2017-09-29

Over/Under Prop Results 2016-17

With the 2017-18 season looming and new player point total Over/Under bets to place we should first is time to review the results of last season’s prop bets. I made 17 bets (10 over, seven under) and hit on 10 of them (58.9%) banking a small profit. Typically, one needs to win 58% of his bets to overcome the vig and consistently make profit. I hit that margin but just barely.

If you recall, I polled my Twitter followers on what they felt would be the outcome of each of the 104 Over/Under propositions available. I’ve included those polls below. People picked the over in 71 of the 104 props, were dead split on two of them and picked the under for 31 players. While we are naturally optimists it’s illogical to expect that many bets to go over, not when it’s all too easy for players to miss time with injury.

65 of the props went under, which falls in line with what you’d expect in the abstract. I also suspect that Vegas takes advantage of the natural optimism of bettors, leaning high with their totals in most cases. With the under hitting on 62.5% of props this year, there was money to be made simply hitting the under across the board.

Of course, that’s not exactly fun, which is why many of us bet. Hitting the over on Patrik Laine before the All-Star break was a lot more satisfying than needing injuries to Bryan Little and Sidney Crosby to hit the under. Still, if you are in the business of making money, going under is the way to go.

That isn’t always the case. In 2015-16, only 52.9% of the 104 props hit the under, which would have had you breaking even. Over the past three seasons the under has hit on 63.8% of the 318 player point total props. On average, it seems that you would do well to spray the under.

You would also do well to not take the advice of the pre-season polls. As you have probably guessed, the good voters did not perform very well, hitting on 47 of the 102 propositions with a decisive winner, coming in below 50%. They did just well enough that any individual might be tricked into following along but not so well as to make money. We’ll see how they do next year but this is certainly not a vote of confidence for the intelligence of crowds in this specific field.

 

Final Tally: 53 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 73 points – OVER

Final Tally: 58 points – OVER

Final Tally: 1 point – UNDER

Final Tally: 38 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 39 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 85 points – OVER

Final Tally: 54 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 53 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 57 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 45 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 55 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 61 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 39 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 26 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 58 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 25 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 63 points – OVER

Final Tally: 45 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 37 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 74 points – OVER

Final Tally: 58 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 89 points – OVER

Final Tally: 33 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 41 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 53 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 53 points – OVER

Final Tally: 51 points – OVER

Final Tally: 37 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 69 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 50 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 72 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 32 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 48 points – OVER

Final Tally: 68 points – OVER

Final Tally: 100 points – OVER

Final Tally: 51 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 77 points – OVER

Final Tally: 50 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 43 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 52 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 46 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 26 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 52 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 44 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 66 points – OVER

Final Tally: 65 points – OVER

Final Tally: 58 points – OVER

Final Tally: 42 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 44 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 54 points – OVER

Final Tally: 29 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 67 points – OVER

Final Tally: 42 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 31 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 45 points – OVER

Final Tally: 66 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 55 points – OVER

Final Tally: 59 points – OVER

Final Tally: 38 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 58 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 40 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 61 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 40 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 31 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 53 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 25 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 71 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 55 points – OVER

Final Tally: 54 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 61 points – OVER

Final Tally: 58 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 61 points – OVER

Final Tally: 54 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 72 points – OVER

Final Tally: 70 points – OVER

Final Tally: 89 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 68 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 50 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 52 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 51 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 40 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 75 points – OVER

Final Tally: 85 points – OVER

Final Tally: 20 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 45 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 69 points – OVER

Final Tally: 62 points – OVER

Final Tally: 61 points – OVER

Final Tally: 61 points – OVER

Final Tally: 61 points – OVER

Final Tally: 52 points – OVER

Final Tally: 34 points – OVER

Final Tally: 44 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 51 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 24 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 69 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 59 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 86 points – OVER

Final Tally: 74 points – OVER

Final Tally: 47 points – UNDER

Final Tally: 52 points – OVER

Final Tally: 82 points – OVER

Final Tally: 64 points – OVER

*

To take part in the fun this year give me a follow @SteveLaidlaw.

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