Over/Under Prop Results 2016-17
steve laidlaw
2017-09-29
Over/Under Prop Results 2016-17
With the 2017-18 season looming and new player point total Over/Under bets to place we should first is time to review the results of last season’s prop bets. I made 17 bets (10 over, seven under) and hit on 10 of them (58.9%) banking a small profit. Typically, one needs to win 58% of his bets to overcome the vig and consistently make profit. I hit that margin but just barely.
If you recall, I polled my Twitter followers on what they felt would be the outcome of each of the 104 Over/Under propositions available. I’ve included those polls below. People picked the over in 71 of the 104 props, were dead split on two of them and picked the under for 31 players. While we are naturally optimists it’s illogical to expect that many bets to go over, not when it’s all too easy for players to miss time with injury.
65 of the props went under, which falls in line with what you’d expect in the abstract. I also suspect that Vegas takes advantage of the natural optimism of bettors, leaning high with their totals in most cases. With the under hitting on 62.5% of props this year, there was money to be made simply hitting the under across the board.
Of course, that’s not exactly fun, which is why many of us bet. Hitting the over on Patrik Laine before the All-Star break was a lot more satisfying than needing injuries to Bryan Little and Sidney Crosby to hit the under. Still, if you are in the business of making money, going under is the way to go.
That isn’t always the case. In 2015-16, only 52.9% of the 104 props hit the under, which would have had you breaking even. Over the past three seasons the under has hit on 63.8% of the 318 player point total props. On average, it seems that you would do well to spray the under.
You would also do well to not take the advice of the pre-season polls. As you have probably guessed, the good voters did not perform very well, hitting on 47 of the 102 propositions with a decisive winner, coming in below 50%. They did just well enough that any individual might be tricked into following along but not so well as to make money. We’ll see how they do next year but this is certainly not a vote of confidence for the intelligence of crowds in this specific field.
Corey Perry over/under 65.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 53 points – UNDER
Ryan Getzlaf over/under 68.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 73 points – OVER
Ryan Kesler over/under 51.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 58 points – OVER
Dylan Strome over/under 45.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 1 point – UNDER
Max Domi over/under 57.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 38 points – UNDER
Oliver Ekman-Larsson over/under 50.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 39 points – UNDER
Brad Marchand over/under 52.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 85 points – OVER
David Krejci over/under 56.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 54 points – UNDER
Patrice Bergeron over/under 61.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 53 points – UNDER
Jack Eichel over/under 63.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 57 points – UNDER
Kyle Okposo over/under 58.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 45 points – UNDER
Ryan O'Reilly over/under 58.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 55 points – UNDER
Johnny Gaudreau over/under 76.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 61 points – UNDER
Mark Giordano over/under 50.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 39 points – UNDER
Sam Bennett over/under 46.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 26 points – UNDER
Sean Monahan over/under 62.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 58 points – UNDER
Troy Brouwer over/under 39.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 25 points – UNDER
Jeff Skinner over/under 49.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 63 points – OVER
Jordan Staal over/under 46.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 45 points – UNDER
Justin Faulk over/under 45.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 37 points – UNDER
Artemi Panarin over/under 69.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 74 points – OVER
Jonathan Toews over/under 61.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 58 points – UNDER
Patrick Kane over/under 87.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 89 points – OVER
Gabriel Landeskog over/under 58.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 33 points – UNDER
Matt Duchene over/under 59.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 41 points – UNDER
Nathan MacKinnon over/under 58.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 53 points – UNDER
Brandon Saad over/under 52.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 53 points – OVER
Nick Foligno over/under 45.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 51 points – OVER
Scott Hartnell over/under 45.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 37 points – UNDER
Jamie Benn over/under 83.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 69 points – UNDER
Jason Spezza over/under 62.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 50 points – UNDER
Tyler Seguin over/under 76.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 72 points – UNDER
Dylan Larkin over/under 52.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 32 points – UNDER
Gustav Nyquist over/under 47.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 48 points – OVER
Henrik Zetterberg over/under 53.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 68 points – OVER
Connor McDavid over/under 86.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 100 points – OVER
Jordan Eberle over/under 59.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 51 points – UNDER
Leon Draisaitl over/under 51.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 77 points – OVER
Milan Lucic over/under 50.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 50 points – UNDER
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins over/under 47.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 43 points – UNDER
Aleksander Barkov over/under 56.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 52 points – UNDER
Jaromir Jagr over/under 54.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 46 points – UNDER
Jonathan Huberdeau over/under 56.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 26 points – UNDER
Anze Kopitar over/under 70.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 52 points – UNDER
Drew Doughty over/under 46.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 44 points – UNDER
Jeff Carter over/under 53.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 66 points – OVER
Eric Staal over/under 49.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 65 points – OVER
Mikko Koivu over/under 52.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 58 points – OVER
Zach Parise over/under 55.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 42 points – UNDER
Alex Galchenyuk over/under 53.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 44 points – UNDER
Alexander Radulov over/under 53.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 54 points – OVER
Brendan Gallagher over/under 46.5 points?
📢 advertisement:— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 29 points – UNDER
Max Pacioretty over/under 63.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 67 points – OVER
Shea Weber over/under 49.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 42 points – UNDER
Andrew Ladd over/under 51.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 31 points – UNDER
Brock Nelson over/under 38.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 45 points – OVER
John Tavares over/under 79.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 66 points – UNDER
Derek Stepan over/under 53.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 55 points – OVER
Mats Zuccarello over/under 55.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 59 points – OVER
Rick Nash over/under 46.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 38 points – UNDER
Filip Forsberg over/under 63.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 58 points – UNDER
PK Subban over/under 55.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 40 points – UNDER
Ryan Johansen over/under 62.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 61 points – UNDER
Adam Henrique over/under 45.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 40 points – UNDER
Mike Cammalleri over/under 44.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 31 points – UNDER
Taylor Hall over/under 62.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 53 points – UNDER
Bobby Ryan over/under 53.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 25 points – UNDER
Erik Karlsson over/under 73.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 71 points – UNDER
Kyle Turris over/under 49.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 55 points – OVER
Mark Stone over/under 58.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 54 points – UNDER
Mike Hoffman over/under 56.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 61 points – OVER
Claude Giroux over/under 70.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 58 points – UNDER
Jakub Voracek over/under 60.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 61 points – OVER
Wayne Simmonds over/under 56.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 54 points – UNDER
Evgeni Malkin over/under 71.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 72 points – OVER
Phil Kessel over/under 63.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 70 points – OVER
Sidney Crosby over/under 93.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 89 points – UNDER
Joe Pavelski over/under 72.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 68 points – UNDER
Joe Thornton over/under 74.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 50 points – UNDER
Logan Couture over/under 56.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 52 points – UNDER
Alex Steen over/under 55.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 51 points – UNDER
Paul Stastny over/under 50.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 40 points – UNDER
Vladimir Tarasenko over/under 74.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 75 points – OVER
Nikita Kucherov over/under 70.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 85 points – OVER
Steven Stamkos over/under 69.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 20 points – UNDER
Tyler Johnson over/under 49.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 45 points – UNDER
Auston Matthews over/under 52.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 69 points – OVER
James van Riemsdyk over/under 54.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 62 points – OVER
Mitch Marner over/under 39.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 61 points – OVER
Nazem Kadri over/under 47.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 61 points – OVER
William Nylander over/under 43.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 61 points – OVER
Bo Horvat over/under 43.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 52 points – OVER
Brandon Sutter over/under 31.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 34 points – OVER
Daniel Sedin over/under 60.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 44 points – UNDER
Henrik Sedin over/under 57.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 51 points – UNDER
Loui Eriksson over/under 52.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 24 points – UNDER
Alexander Ovechkin over/under 75.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 69 points – UNDER
Evgeny Kuznetsov over/under 72.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 59 points – UNDER
Nicklas Backstrom over/under 74.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 86 points – OVER
Blake Wheeler over/under 70.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 74 points – OVER
Bryan Little over/under 53.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 47 points – UNDER
Dustin Byfuglien over/under 51.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 52 points – OVER
Mark Scheifele over/under 60.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 82 points – OVER
Patrik Laine over/under 40.5 points?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) October 8, 2016
Final Tally: 64 points – OVER
*
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