For the final Sunday this offseason, we'll share 20 Fantasy Thoughts from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week's "Daily Ramblings".

Contributors: Ian Gooding and Michael Clifford

1. Is there a more underrated sniper in the league than Jeff Skinner? He has averaged 29 goals per season over the last four. Over a similar number of games played, that’s ahead of Jeff Carter, Phil Kessel, and Blake Wheeler. I think there’s something to be said about playing in a market that doesn’t get a lot of national coverage in either the U.S. or Canada. Same stretch of time (2013-14 to 2016-17): Skinner is seventh in the NHL with an average of 262 shots on goal, ahead of Wheeler, Sidney Crosby, Patrick Kane, Jamie Benn, and Vladimir Tarasenko.

True, Skinner’s assist total is weak. So is his power-play point total, which was actually in the single digits for both 2014-15 and 2015-16. He’s also been a minus player in each of his last six seasons but with Carolina potentially now a team on the rise, it’s possible that both the plus-minus and the power-play point totals will improve. Skinner has played seven NHL seasons already but also keep in mind that he’s only 25. For now, though, if you can find other players that will offset Skinner’s current weaknesses, you’ll find Skinner to be a great value if you can snag him close to his average draft position.

2. Buffalo’s final pre-season game was Friday night and it saw Zemgus Girgensons on the top line with Ryan O’Reilly and Kyle Okposo. The second line had Evander Kane next to Jack Eichel and Jason Pominville, with Sam Reinhart centering the third line.

I’ve written this before, but to reiterate the point: if Reinhart is left on the third line this year – which is smart for the team to do – it’s horrific for his fantasy upside. He likely stays on the top power-play unit but skating on the third line and away from the team’s top offensive options at five-on-five makes it unlikely he improves much on last season’s production. Be wary in drafts this year.

3. One reader chimed in and said that they reached for Jacob Trouba in the eighth round again of a league that counts peripherals. Given his ADP, this does qualify as a reach but it’s the good kind to make. Here’s why:

The Jets, as a team, look primed to explode offensively. The top-six forward mix is loaded with all-world offensive talent: Dustin Byfuglien is still a top-tier weapon on the blue line, and less-established players like Kyle Connor and Marko Dano look ready to make the jump. In all, this has the looks of a top-5 offense this year.

Big Buff will still hog the top power-play minutes, but Trouba should eat up the secondary time. He is also becoming more relied upon by the coaches having played nearly 25 minutes a game last year. Trouba is known for being very good defensively but it shouldn’t take away from his vision and ability to move the puck effectively.

Back to the original point, as to why this is a ‘safe’ reach: the peripheral stats. Over the last two years, per 82 games, he’s averaging 146 hits, 172 blocked shots, 67 penalty minutes, and 167 shots on goal. That is obscene stat-stuffing for leagues that count peripheral categories, and with no holdout or injury this year, he should be able to provide a lot more than just points.

That is what makes this a safe reach. Even if he flatlines offensively and only gives 30 points, there is so much more to his fantasy game that the downside isn’t significant. If he lives up to his full offensive potential, then this is a very good selection to make.

4. Dobber, Steve Laidlaw, Rick Roos, Mario Prata and I, Ian Gooding, shared our fetish picks (the one player we are targeting and when) for Sportsnet. Here’s another a list of players I own in multiple leagues this season, along with a brief explanation as to why that player appeals to me.

Brayden Schenn: If you don’t have time to read that Sportsnet ‘Fetish pick’ article, he’s a power-play specialist whose point total could increase if he lines up with Vladimir Tarasenko.

Dustin Byfuglien: An absolute must-own in multicategory leagues and he holds his own in points leagues, too. Plus I don’t have a problem drafting top-tier defensemen early.

Drew Doughty: Another multicategory beast. Dougie Hamilton very nearly made this list too because of his similar stats to Doughty.

Shayne Gostisbehere: Now that the sophomore slump is out of the way, watch for big things.

Ryan O’Reilly: A very cheap 55-60 points that I have been drafting in Round 15 (around the 170th pick) of a 12-team draft.

Elias Lindholm: His Carolina team is quietly getting better, and he was one of the hottest players in the second half last season (36 points in 45 games).

John Gibson: I think Ryan Miller’s presence puts less pressure on the oft-injured Gibson.

5. The fantasy impact report for the Robby Fabbri knee injury, which is expected to cause him to miss the entire season: The Blues are kicking the tires on Jaromir Jagr. With Fabbri, Alex Steen, and Patrik Berglund all expected to be out of the lineup on opening night, young forwards like Dmitrij Jaskin and Ivan Barbashev are expected to play a bigger role, while Tage Thompson or Klim Kostin could make the team. But the fact of the matter is that the Blues will probably try to sign another veteran forward or two … such as Scottie Upshall, who was on a professional tryout with the Canucks.

6. Sleeper alert: Anders Bjork is expected to play in the Bruins’ top six alongside Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand. Bruins’ coach Bruce Cassidy also mentioned that Bjork is a possibility to move to the left side to play on a line with David Krejci and David Pastrnak (CSNNE). Either way, Bjork is a great target in deeper leagues at the moment, since Cassidy seems committed to him playing on a scoring line.

Another sleeper alert: Devils’ coach John Hynes says there is a “strong possibility” Pavel Zacha centers the top line between Taylor Hall and Kyle Palmieri. The first overall pick in 2017, Nico Hischier, is projected to center the second line with newly acquired Marcus Johansson and Drew Stafford (NorthJersey.com).

I’m not quite ready to proclaim the fearless forecast that Zacha finishes with more points than Hischier but Zacha (5% Yahoo owned) is slipping under the radar in a lot more leagues than Hischier (48% Yahoo owned). A Devils’ fan that I know has told me that Zacha has worked out hard this offseason and looks half a step faster like he was carved out of granite. And that Zacha would score between 55 and 60 points this season.

Speaking of second lines, 2017 second overall pick Nolan Patrick is expected to start the season on the second line between Wayne Simmonds and Jordan Weal (Philly.com). Patrick seems to have already vaulted ahead of Sean Couturier, Valtteri Filppula, and Jori Lehtera on a crowded center depth chart, behind only Claude Giroux.

7. Deep sleeper alert: Brett Connolly. Capitals’ lines from their Wednesday preseason game against New Jersey had him alongside Alex Ovechkin and Evgeny Kuznetsov. And at this point, the preseason lines are starting to more closely resemble the regular-season lines.

You may remember Connolly as the sixth overall pick back in 2010. Yet, so far, he hasn’t been able to put up anything more than 25 points in a season, so at age 25 he won’t receive any more opportunities like this one. He would likely need to beat out up-and-coming Jakub Vrana and gritty Tom Wilson for the role but the fact that he is being auditioned on the Alex Ovechkin line is a good sign for his fantasy prospects.

8. Kyle Okposo missed time down the stretch last year with a mysterious illness that turned out to be concussion issues. By all accounts now, however, he’s healthy.

It should be said that Okposo is a focal point of the Buffalo attack. He’s on the top line with Ryan O’Reilly and is a staple of the top power-play unit. He had a monster 23 power-play points in just 65 games played last year and there’s no reason to think their top quintet can’t be as effective this year, especially with a full season from Jack Eichel.

9. Alex Galchenyuk’s fantasy value is plummeting faster than Felix Baumgartner. He might still see top PP time but this is a situation similar to Sam Reinhart (further above). As long as Galchenyuk continues to play down the lineup, his upside is devastated. He’s easily passable at his ADP right now, which is generally around the 12th or 13th round.  

10. You won’t be that disappointed in drafting Patrik Laine if he scores 40 goals. His power-play point total should improve with more power-play time, and he could easily build on his shot total. There aren’t any categories in which he’s an anchor for your team (like Phil Kessel with hits), although his 28 assists placed him outside of the top 100 in that category last season. It’s just that there are some categories that he isn’t particularly strong in.

For that reason, I wouldn’t draft Laine in the second round as has been happening in Yahoo. I would wait until at least the third round and I’d be thrilled if he landed in my lap in the fourth round. And for those of you in ESPN leagues, yes, I would draft him ahead of Mike Hoffman. Don’t let the autopick tell you otherwise.

11. Ever since Mike Hoffman burst onto the scene with an out-of-the-blue 27-goal campaign in 2014-15, he’s been one of the most reliable goal scorers in the NHL. He’s never scored 30 goals, yet he’s always scored at least 25 over those three full seasons. Combined over the past three seasons he’s finished just outside the top 20 in that category, finishing ahead of the likes of Blake Wheeler, Phil Kessel, and Johnny Gaudreau.

Hoffman seems to be carving himself a niche as a 25-to-30 goal, 30-to-35 assist guy. His decrease in shots taken (242 to 224 last season) was offset by nearly a minute more of power-play ice time per game. If he can push his shot total up to 250, while keeping his first-unit power-play time, he could finish at the higher end of the point range listed above.

12. Josh Anderson has reportedly requested a trade from the Blue Jackets. The Blue Jackets were trying not to expose him in the expansion draft, they wouldn’t include him in a package for Matt Duchene, and the team and player are only $150,000 apart. So what has suddenly led to this?

This doesn’t look good for the agent (Darren Ferris), who also represents the still unsigned Andreas Athanasiou. Hasn’t it been a month since Athanasiou threatened to bolt to the KHL? Kind of an empty threat now.

13. Bad news for Erik Karlsson fantasy owners, as it doesn’t sound like he’ll be ready for opening night (Ottawa Sun). Having half your ankle bone removed doesn’t sound like a minor injury, so I hope this isn’t the kind of injury that is career-threatening. The good news is that Karlsson is back skating, so fantasy owners should expect him to return to the lineup early into the season.

In the article, Karlsson was asked whether the injury would affect his ability to block shots. Whether he will or not is significant in leagues that count blocked shots, as Karlsson didn’t just provide fantasy owners with offensive numbers last season. He finished second in the entire NHL with 201 blocked shots, so there may be some hesitancy on his part to get in front of a fast-moving puck, at least in the beginning. He did mention that the ankle injury may change the way he blocks shots.

In an interview with TSN 1200, Bob McKenzie mentions the Senators’ top 4 defense to start the season. Cody Ceci and Johnny Oduya are listed as the top pair, while Dion Phaneuf and Thomas Chabot are listed as the second pair. So it appears that not only should Chabot make the team, he could receive some significant minutes to start. Last season’s first-round pick Logan Brown is also in the mix to make the team.

14. With Karlsson’s surgery recovery and the uncertainty surrounding it, the only d-man that should get first-round consideration is Brent Burns. Maybe it’s worth grabbing him because it offers such a leg up on the rest of NHL blue liners but outside of him, I would rather just wait and grab elite offensive forwards early on.

This is largely a matter of preference and comfort, but I feel I have a good enough handle on good values later in drafts that grabbing a defenseman or goalie early isn’t necessary. I’m sure people feel the opposite and there is no one true way to win a league. I just try to minimize risk early in drafts, and with goaltenders especially, it’s a risky way to live.

15. The big reason for Victor Hedman’s superb year last year was the fact that he had 29 power-play assists; he had 29 power-play assists in three seasons from 2013-2016. Remember that before Steven Stamkos’ injury last year, the team was running two pretty even power-play units with Stamkos on one and Nikita Kucherov on the other, and if they’re healthy, will likely do the same this year.

Last year, with Stamkos injured, Hedman was the primary focus on the blue line because as a left shot he could easily setup Nikita Kucherov with one-timers, and with Stamkos out, there was no real second trigger option. With Stamkos back, Anton Stralman should be on that unit as he can setup the former much easier. I think we see a big decrease in Hedman’s power-play production and expecting him to reproduce last year’s production is misguided.

16. I have a Yahoo draft in a few days. I don’t always know how these drafts play out but I do know that I’ll be letting someone else draft Auston Matthews at his average draft position of (4.7).

If you take a closer look at Matthews’ projections in various categories, you’ll notice that he’s not elite yet, even though he’s being drafted that way. Yes, he’s on track to be one of the league’s top goal scorers if he hits the 40-goal mark but should he fail to reach 40 assists (29 last season), then he won’t likely finish in the top 50 in that category. To compare, 50 assists is well within reach for other elite options such as Connor McDavid, Patrick Kane, and Sidney Crosby. Even in Dobber’s points-only keeper rankings, Matthews is at No. 17, and that list doesn’t include goalies.

Are you in a league with peripheral categories? Drop Matthews even further. Yes, he could take 300 shots on goal, which would make him elite in that category but with 14 penalty minutes last season, he’s a Lady Byng candidate. And his 21 hits was only a handful more than Phil Kessel’s total. His 61 blocked shots is better than many forwards but it’s not high enough for him to be a multi-category stud.

Matthews is a bona fide rising NHL star. But at least for this season, let the Leafs fan in your league reach for him, particularly in Yahoo leagues. The options being drafted shortly after Matthews will provide more for your fantasy team.

17. Goaltending has a lot of volatility from year to year. Consider that in standard Yahoo leagues, the only netminder to finish top-5 at the position the last two seasons is Braden Holtby, and that he and John Gibson are the only two to finish inside the top-10 both 2015-16 and 2016-17.

It was basically a year ago that Cory Schneider was considered among the handful of top goaltenders in the world; Jonathan Quick was consistently solid until the injury last year; Devan Dubnyk has been very good for Minnesota since joining the Wild; Scott Darling could provide good value on an up-and-coming team.

All this is to say that there are a lot of goalies going much later in drafts that could either return to form, or show themselves to be reliable assets. I don’t think it’s necessary to grab Braden Holtby, or Carey Price, or Matt Murray. Other fantasy owners do, and that’s fine, but the nature of the position leads itself to randomness and investing a high draft pick at a position steeped in randomness seems to be a bad idea.

18. Alexander Radulov will finish ahead of Leon Draisaitl at right wing.

With the Oilers seemingly committed to Draisaitl as the team’s second line centre, he no longer gets to play with Connor McDavid at five-on-five. He will still be on that PP unit, but his five-on-five totals will take a hit dropping down from McDavid to Milan Lucic and (insert right winger here).

Last year, Draisaitl managed 56 shots and 25 points at five-on-five while skating with McDavid in 674:01 minutes; 47 and 15 without in 500:03 minutes. That works out to 4.99 shots and 2.23 points per 60 minutes with McDavid and 5.63 and 1.80 points per 60 minutes without. His play-driving rates dropped by six percent away from McDavid as well. He has a lot to prove, and this will be a big year in proving himself as not dependent on the best player in the world.

Meanwhile, Radulov is going from a situation where his centre was Phillip Danault to a situation where his centre is Tyler Seguin. He should be better both at five-on-five and on the power play. He should provide solid, but not exceptional, across-the-board peripherals.

Radulov is skating both at five-on-five and on the power play with a line that could be the top offensive line in the league; Draisaitl is lining up in the preseason with Milan Lucic and Drake Caggiula. Even if Jesse Puljujarvi moves up – and I think he does – it’s still nothing close in comparison to what Dallas can offer.

19. Hey, remember Tyler Toffoli? The guy a year removed from a 30-goal season? The guy who scored 1.04 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five in the three years from 2013-16, which was the same rate as Brad Marchand in 2016-17?  Remember him? Well, he’s routinely being drafted outside the top-10 rounds in 12-team Yahoo leagues. Just FYI.

Anyway, there’s a new regime in Los Angeles and hopefully that means more ice time for Toffoli. He got nine seconds fewer 5v5 TOI per game last year than Dwight King, and nine seconds more than Trevor Lewis. That is pure insanity for a team that had so much trouble scoring they would have lost games 2-1 to a shooter tutor.

This extends to the power play as well. Tanner Pearson often received favourable treatment to the top power-play unit, and hopefully that changes this year.

At least early in preseason, it appears the line of Pearson, Jeff Carter, and Toffoli is reunited. Without significant offseason offensive additions, the team isn’t too different up front from last year. Hopefully a more creative offensive structure with more ice time for Toffoli – along with a full, healthy season – can see him regain his 30-goal glory. Keep in mind that he has just 23 power-play points over the last three seasons. If that area can improve, a big rebound season is incoming.

20. The Flyers finished in the top-10 last year for fewest adjusted shots and scoring chances allowed at five-on-five. Their horrific goals against was due to the goaltending, not the team in front of the goaltending. Steve Mason had a bad year, undoubtedly, but most goalies do at some point. Newcomer Brian Elliott also had a bad year with Calgary but again, most goalies do at some point.

The question as far as wins go is if Elliott can stay healthy enough to make at least 55 starts, which he’s never done. Even if he doesn’t, though, if he can regain the form he showed in St. Louis, he could produce very good ratios, and 45 games of very good ratios can be enough to sneak into the top-15 (think of guys like Craig Anderson, Peter Budaj, and Antti Raanta last year). He’s worth the risk given his new situation.
 

Have a good week, folks!!