Fantasy Top-10: Questions Heading Into The Season

Tom Collins

2017-10-02

We are two days away from the start of the NHL season, and it feels like we have more unanswered questions than usual as we move into the season.

Most drafts are finalized, and we’re all sitting back expecting to contend for the championship, but there are plenty of things left up in the air. The answer to these questions can severely impact your fantasy season.

Here are the top 10 questions moving into the season.

 

10. Will Matt Duchene get traded?

The odds of this happening are getting less and less likely as long as Joe Sakic remains the Colorado general manager. I’ve mentioned it here before, but Duchene is overrated when it comes to fantasy hockey. Many believe he can thrive elsewhere, but he has exactly one 30-goal season in eight years, hasn’t broken 60 points in four years and doesn’t contribute in peripheral stats like blocked shots, hits or PIM. Expect an incredible immediate boost in his value if he is dealt, and if you’re an owner, trade him quick at that point.

 

9. How will Vegas do as an expansion team?

The easy answer is horrible, but from a fantasy perspective, it’s more uncertain: there’s no word on if James Neal will be in the lineup for the first game of the season; Marc-Andre Fleury has experience being a good goalie on an awful team, but is a decade older now than the last time he was in that situation; Vadim Shipachyov is a wild card as an NHL centre and has never played a league game of any kind in North America. Expansion teams have had successful players in their inaugural seasons (even the Ottawa Senators had a 63-point player in Norm Maciver in their woeful first season), so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see one player break through.

 

8. Will there be a 50-goal scorer?

They say 40 is the new 50. Gone are the days of multiple players consistently getting 50 goals and only three players managed to get 40 last year. Odds are we’ll have a season where no one (or one at most) is going to score 50 goals this season. Only once in the past seven years have we had a season with two 50-goal scorers (2011-12 when it was Steven Stamkos and Evgeni Malkin). Who is the best bet to get to 50 this year? Early-season favourites will be Vladimir Tarasenko, Patrik Laine and Auston Matthews.

 

7. What will happen with John Tavares?

Tavares is the latest big-name player that we will see non-stop stories about as he approaches unrestricted free agency next summer. If he does sign, how large will his cap hit be? If Tavares does decide to leave, will the Isles hold on to him if they are fighting for a playoff spot? Does Montreal make a big offer to finally solve the centre issues, if only temporarily? Does another team swoop in and get him for the stretch run (ie- Chicago at the deadline to play with Patrick Kane)?

 

6. Who will be Connor McDavid’s winger?

Remember how Sidney Crosby carried Chris Kunitz on his back all the way to the Olympics? McDavid has the skill to elevate someone just as high. Last year, McDavid turned Patrick Maroon into a 27-goal scorer (doubling his career high) and turned Leon Draisaitl into an $8.5 million player. Now there’s hope he can do the same for potentially Ryan Strome or Kailer Yamamoto. The problem is, there’s only so many players McDavid can play with. It could be a revolving door for most of the season, which will make it tough on fantasy general managers looking to also ride McDavid’s coattails.

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5. Are there any great rookies?

We’ve been spoiled the last few years as nine rookies have hit at least 60 points since 2013-14. Four more rookies hit 50 points. And none of those include Connor McDavid (injured for half the season his Calder season), 40-point rookie defensemen such as Zach Werenkski, John Klingberg, Torey Krug, and Shayne Gostisbehere, or 20-win goalies such as Matthew Murray, Jake Allen, and John Gibson. This year doesn’t look to have a great crop of rookies, so we may not see a single 60-point player in the bunch.

 

4. Who are the next $10-million men?

For those in cap leagues, $10-million is never a number you want to see a player reach. If your league has a cap of $100 million, having two players earning $10 million each is 20 percent of your cap. This past offseason we saw Carey Price and Connor McDavid both sign deals that would pay them $10-plus million a year for 10 years (McDavid’s doesn’t come into play until next season). There are a few players that may sign comparable deals in the next 12 months: Jack Eichel, Patrik Laine, Auston Matthews and John Tavares. And then there’s Erik Karlsson, Tyler Seguin and Nikita Kicherov the year after that. It could start getting tough to build a dynasty in cap leagues.

 

3. What will new coaches mean for fantasy-relevant players?

There have been six new coaching hires this summer — not including Gerard Gallant in Vegas — plus four more in the middle of last season. In total, one-third of NHL teams have replaced their coaches in the past nine months. Can Rick Tocchet bring out the best in the Arizona young guns? Can John Stevens let Drew Doughty and Anze Kopitar play a more offensive game? Will Ken Hitchock turn Tyler Seguin into a more defensive presence?

 

2. How long will the faceoff/slashing rules be called?

It wasn’t unusual to find a preseason game with 10-15 penalties called per game. The Montreal-Ottawa tilt on Saturday night saw 13 minors called. The NHL seems serious that the referees and linesmen will call all slashing and faceoff penalties. This could lead to an uptick in scoring at the start of the season if there are a lot more power plays. Look for the top players in the league to start the season hot.

 

1. Who can challenge Connor McDavid?

The best players in hockey have always had their usurper to cast debate on who was the best player in the game. Maurice Richard had Gordie Howe. Wayne Gretzky had Mario Lemieux. Sidney Crosby had Alexander Ovechkin. The only real exception was Bobby Orr. Now there could be another exception with McDavid. McDavid is the next generational talent and Crosby won’t be able to challenge him for much longer. Can anyone step up to consistently challenge McDavid as the league’s best year after year?

4 Comments

  1. finminer 2017-10-02 at 10:27

    I stay out of the “who will be McDavid’s winger” discussion altogether. It is too volatile and I see many owners willing to overspend to get someone who’s being hyped as “the one.” Yamamoto is a good example of that – talented, yes, but is he worth going 10 spots better than his draft position just on that basis?

    • Cervelo77 2017-10-02 at 14:12

      Yamamoto is going to get his 9 game cup of coffee and be sent to the minors for the rest of the year. He needs to get his man strength before he’ll be able to survive a whole season at the NHL level.

  2. finminer 2017-10-02 at 10:32

    Just like all the underperformers in Colorado, they are symptoms of the disease that plagues the entire organization. They should have done a slash-and-burn rebuild like Toronto did, and as a result, with the same management, they will languish in the cellar. MacKinnon would be a consistent 70-point player on another team, and Duchene and Landeskog wouldn’t be floundering as they are. Sure, the players deserve some blame, but the whole Roy fiasco set them back years.

  3. Ilya Bryzgalov 2017-10-03 at 00:50

    10.Yes, but not nearly for what Sakic imagined.
    9.7th in Pacific, around 26th/27th overall.
    8.Patrik Laine
    7.Stays with Islanders for the season, then doesn’t re-sign
    6.Some random dude who’ll turn into a 30-goal scorer
    5.Hischer, McAvoy, Keller… maybe some others
    4.Don’t know
    3.Answer would be too long
    2.No idea…
    1.Crosby, Kane, Eichel

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