Goldipucks and the Three Skaters: Playoff Edition (Part 1)

Rick Roos

2018-03-28

Most regular season fantasy leagues are now wrapping up, but playoff pools are around the corner. So what better time for Goldipucks and the Three Skaters to cover skaters on teams bound for the playoffs! This week’s skaters are Filip Forsberg, T.J. Oshie, and Torey Krug, each of whom has the luxury of playing for an elite team which, through the weekend, has already locked up a spot (or is all but assured a spot) in the playoffs, while next week we’ll examine skaters from likely lower-seeded playoffs squads.

As a reminder, or for first time readers, the concept of this column is a play on Goldilocks and the Three Bears, except instead of bowls of porridge I’m covering skaters and declaring one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should). Each skater also receives a 1-10 rating, indicating, on a relative scale, how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), cold (rated 1-3, where 1 is the most unsustainably cold), or just right (rated 4-6, where 5 is the most “just right”) he is.

Before you read any further, be sure to guess which of Forsberg, Oshie, and Krug is too hot, which is too cold, and which is just right. It’s an enjoyable exercise, but also important one in that it confirms whether your “spidey senses” are correct, and, if they aren’t, allows you to determine what might have led your instincts awry.

 

Filip Forsberg

Last season Forsberg entered the zone from February onward, with 23 points (15 goals) in his final 23 games, turning what looked to be a lost campaign into a salvaged 58-point effort, then parlayed that momentum into 16 points in 22 playoff contests. For 2017-18, if the season was to end today he’d finish with a 75-point scoring pace. But can we trust this scoring level to continue into the playoffs and beyond, what with Forsberg having managed only to produce 58-64 points for three straight seasons? The answer is no, we can’t – not quite at least.

This season several of Forsberg’s numbers are strikingly similar to those he had in 2014-15, from his percentage share of his team’s PP minutes (51.5% this season vs. 51.1% in 2014-15), to his 5×5 team shooting percentage (9.83 vs. 9.44), to his IPP (70.5% vs. 70.0%). On the other hand, his SOG rate is down somewhat for this season versus 2014-15 (2.89 in 2014