Ramblings: Jets Weather the Storm in Game One & Guentzel Sits in Elite Company
Cam Robinson
2018-04-28
With just one game on tap, we’ll start things off with a little draft lottery precursor. Sportsnet announced they would prolong the pain/excitement on Saturday by revealing teams 4-15 before the San Jose – Vegas tilt. They will then leave the final three spots to be unveiled after the second intermission of that same game.
For those who “cheered” for a bottom-feeder, this will be their Stanley Cup playoffs and brings with it a potential to change the course of an organization or two.
Just in time for the lottery hysteria, I’ve released an updated Rankings Thursday night. Have a gander here.
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If you’re like me, this Winnipeg-Nashville series was the most anticipated of the bunch. In a perfect example of the atrocity that is the NHL playoff format, the top two teams IN THE ENTIRE LEAGUE face off in round two.
It's criminal that one of these squads won't continue on. However, at least we can enjoy the ferocity that the series will bring.
Mathieu Perreault joined the team in a non-contact jersey at the tail end of the morning skate. It was the first time Perreault had been on the ice since his injury in Game One against the Wild. It's a step in the right direction but indicates he's still a ways off from returning.
After a week of rest for both squads, the fans and players were ready to roll. The Preds' barn was rocking to start this game and their players were equally fired up. Nashville came out absolutely flying. They outshot their opponent 20-4 in the first frame, but it was Winnipeg who scored first when Brandon Tanev banged home a rebound.
The Jets extended their lead with two second period tallies by Paul Stastny and Mark Scheifele. That ended Pekka Rinne’s night as he gave up three goals on just 16 shots. Juuse Saros needed to make just three stops in the final frame in relief.
Scheifele is sporting a nice little goal-per-game output in the postseason thus far. This after scoring just two goals in the final two months of the season dating back to March 2nd. Suffice to say, he’s showing up when it matters most.
Mark Scheifele fires a wicked shot past Rinne to give the Jets a 3-0 lead. #StanleyCup pic.twitter.com/tuk55kdItp
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) April 28, 2018
For a while there, it looked like Connor Hellebuyck might never surrender another goal against again. After shutting out the Wild in the final two games of the first round he was a man possessed at Bridgestone Arena on Friday night. He ended up as the first star after making 47 saves. However, his shutout streak ended early in the third off a Kevin Fiala marker. 163:00 of shutout hockey isn't too shabby I guess.
If your Nashville, the message likely stays the same: keep doing what we’re doing, and the brick wall will eventually crumble.
Game two goes Sunday evening.
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It’s still early, but Jake Guentzel is making a name for himself as a big stage performer. The 23-year-old burst onto the scene a season ago and found immediate success next to Sidney Crosby. His play managed to elevate even further as he set the rookie points record with 21 on route to a Cup victory last spring.
This season, the Nebraska native had the ups and downs expected of a young player learning to play at the highest level each night. He saw time with and without Crosby. On and off the top power-play unit. But he finished his final quarter saw him produce at a 60-point pace – even if his goal-scoring had dried up to some degree.
We've now learned that the fresh smell of spring brings with it flamethrower-Guentzel. And boy, does he enjoy setting the world on fire. Through six games against the Flyers, Guentzel found the back of the net six times. He juiced that up by adding a goal and two helpers in game one against the Caps. He sits atop the playoff leaderboard with 16 points in seven games. His crowning achievement being a monstrous four goal, five point outing to eliminate the cross-state rivals.
Guentzel's 37 points in 32 playoff contests represents a 1.16 point-per-game output. That mark slides him into the top 10 all-time for players with at least 25 playoff games.
Needless to say, this is a heady group to be associated with. Each of those on the list are either in the Hall of Fame or will be once their opportunity arises.
I'm not standing here saying that Jake Guentzel is destined to be a first ballot HoFer. But rather, the way this sophomore is playing warrants all the virtual ink I can spill.
On top of his prolific post-season totals, the dynamic forward has been a truly elite marksman for some time. He recorded a solid 17.6 percent clip in his final season of NCAA action. And then, in 90 combined regular season and playoff games in the AHL and NHL in 2016-17, he posted 50 goals on 231 shots (21.6%).
Despite lulls in production this year, Guentzel managed a respectable 12.9 percent conversion rate during the regular season. And is now clicking along at 35 percent in the post-season!
Clearly that latter number is wildly unsustainable – as is his career playoff conversion rate of 27 percent. However, his ability to finish should not be questioned.
What can we expect from Guentzel next season and where he should land in fantasy drafts hinges on a few things:
- Does he maintain his spot next to Crosby for more than the 66 percent of even-strength ice he saw in 2017-18?
- Does he manage to work his way onto the top power-play unit in lieu of a newly re-signed, Patric Hornqvist? (This is a biggie)
- How inflated will his value you be on draft day due to this continued playoff excellence?
Last season, despite the massive point production, it appeared that the inexperience of just 65 NHL games under his belt played a role in assessment. Guentzel was the 104th player off the board on Yahoo last season. Though dual eligible for centre and left-wing, he was the 23rd LW selected on average.
It’s difficult to say if you can count on snagging him in the ninth round again next fall, but if you can, that seems like a prudent move to make.
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Of note, digging a bit deeper into that list of All-Time playoff performers, there is another current player who is tracking very well. Nikita Kucherov sits in a tie for 24th all-time with 52 points in 50 contests. Despite his tremendous ability and monster 2017-18 season, I still feel that his greatness has been understated. It shouldn’t be. He’s amazing.
The other active players in the top 50:
9th Sidney Crosby 1.15
22nd Evgeni Malkin 1.05
34th Mike Cammalleri 1.0
42nd Patrick Kane 0.97
47th Ryan Getzlaf 0.96
48th Alex Ovechkin 0.96
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That's all for this week. Thanks for reading and feel free to follow me on Twitter @CrazyJoeDavola3
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The complaints about the playoff format are misguided. Only one team can win each year, meaning 15 cannot. The order that those 15 are eliminated is inconsequential except for when it comes to lining an owner’s pockets.
Winnipeg and Nashville would have to meet eventually on the way to the final. I can guarantee you one of them is not winning the Cup. Will it really matter looking back that one of them lost in the second round instead of the third?
the best teams in The regular season should have the best shot at making the finals- that’s just logic and fairness. That clearly never happens in this format. That’s a problem. It hasn’t ruined a cup yet, but just wait till a team like last year’s Ottawa wins that game seven and you have to watch that crap happen in the Stanley cup instead of two teams of Winnipeg/Nashville caliber. Not to mention that a lot of casual fans only tune in to their team and the Stanley cup- missing watching perhaps the best two teams play and forming an opinion of the league not based on its best possible options. Makes it hard to grow the game.
I’d say it’s ruined the cup run for teams every year since it was implemented, since coming out of the 2012-13 lock out, especially in the west.
I agree wholeheartedly about the asinine playoff format. Keep it simple! 1 vs 8 in each conference, etc. What motivation does this give teams to push for 1st or 2nd place in their division when they might end up with an opponent that they should be facing in the 3rd round? I’m surprised that teams with a spot locked up don’t tank for the rest of the year to up the odds of getting the match-up they want.
How does this format help the owners? They invest huge amounts every year so that their team can win the Cup, playing as many playoff games as possible to increase their revenue without having to pay their lineup, and to sell as much merchandise as possible. I’m amazed they ever agreed to it.
Again, only one team can win every year. Fifteen teams technically have their chances “ruined.” You have to beat the best to be the best. There is no Stanley Cup for bellyaching about playoff brackets, thankfully.
& we have 3 playing 4 in the East. The stupidest playoff format in professional sports. Hell any sport even minor.
Nas generated 19 shots on net from the D last night, another 8 attempts, they fired the puck at Hellebuyck from the perimeter all night. How many of those shots came from the danger areas? Not to disparage Hellebuyck he made numerous great saves but this game wasn’t as lopsided as it appears on the shot clock. The chances of scoring 5 on 5 from the outside are slim to none existent. Reminded me of watching Edm & Car in the regular season, firing away from the low % areas.
You can’t compare players from today’s NHL to players from the past. It’s to the point where you need to look at it in segments & not just decades but choped into periods. Players who had the luxury to play in the glory years of scoring, from 1980 through 1992 played at a time before clutch & grab not that it’s as prevalent today but scoring is down significantly.
In 1980 teams averaged 3.84 goals per game each, 1981 4.01, 1982 3.86, 3.94, 3.89, 3.97, 3.67, 3.71, 3.74, 3.68, etc.. A hockey pool freaks dream. We finished with 2.97 this season a significant increase over the previous 7 years where we hadn’t broken 2.8 per team. That’s essentially 50% more scoring per game for virtually every player on that list above Guentzel but 1, Orr for well over a decade.
I agree that Nashville needs to get their shots off from more dangerous areas. Although clearly their plan was to pepper Hellebuyck, look for tips and rebounds. They had several but that’s when Helle made his best stops.
As for era adjusted scoring, again you’re correct. It is very difficult to compare various eras due to the vastly different level of play generation, goaltending ability and scoring metrics.
With Guentzel’s small sample, I figured it was easier to display the raw numbers and allow people to draw their own conclusions.
Thanks for taking the time to engage!
Solid work, what it shows for me is that what Guenzel has accomplished in today’s NHL is truly elite. You have to love players who get better when the level of play gets harder.
I’m not a hug fan of shots from the perimeter especially unscreened 1’s as many were, even more so at 5 on 5. Most of those shots just became turn overs. On the PP in odd man situations that can make for solid scoring opportunities.
Interesting that Subban isn’t being linched by everyone after going -3 in a 4-1 game with an empty net goal after poor Gardner has probably had to hire security to protect himself walking the streets. Ha-ha! I like Gardiner & it certainly wasn’t his fault he went -5 nor Subban’s that he went -3 last night.
Good work Cam, liked your draft prospect piece as well. Solid work.
The use of the term
“Lynch” when referencing a black player is so not appropriate and users with this language should not be on the site.