Geek of the Week: Regression in the Projections Part 3

Scott Maran

2018-09-09


In our third part of Regression in the Projections (you can find parts one and two here), we’ll be taking a quick look at a few other players who are projected to provide a lot less value than they did last season. As usual, all projections are based on a standard 12-team Yahoo league measuring goals, assists, shots on goal, power play points, and hits.

Eric Staal (2017-18: 69th, 2018-19 projected: 114th)

 

Rank

FHG Value

GP

G

A

SOG

PPP

HITS

2017-18

69

25

81

42

34

241

17

42

2018-19

114

6

82

33

36

260

17

42


Early in his career Eric Staal was considered as one of the top players in the NHL, routinely averaging over a point per game for the Carolina Hurricanes. However, after he turned 29, Staal’s decline looked imminent, as his point totals slowly dropped from the 60s to the 50s and then even the high 30s (that quarter of a season with the Rangers was rough). But ever since heading to Minnesota, Staal’s career has been revitalized. Last year he shocked the hockey world with one of his best seasons to date, recording his first 70+ point season since 2011.

Finishing tied for the 26th most points in the league, Staal finished with over 40 goals for just the second time in his career. His 42 markers were good for the fourth most in the entire NHL, more than noted stars such as Connor McDavid, Nikita Kucherov, and Taylor Hall. This all lead to