Eastern Edge: Right Wing ADP vs. Rank

Cam Metz

2018-09-18

 

Please excuse a short break from the summer series previews, it’s getting too close to the NHL season to ignore draft strategy.

This summer I had fun learning about other fantasy sports and learned of a great tool for organizing thoughts. I work in a fast-paced environment where I may need a picture or reminder to be available on my phone and then immediately on my computer – I don’t have time for Evernote to sync.  I thought it was worth spreading the word about Google Keep.  I’ve used a lot of organizational tools, but the speed of this app is unquestioned.  Create a shortcut to your desktop and add the app to your phone, I promise you’ll remember more creative ideas that will change your everyday life – Siri can’t keep up yet.  Another tool I use on a daily basis is Trello for organizing teams, my own personal work, and even fantasy draft strategy.  Since I learned of both tools through fantasy sports I wanted to share it with others.

As promised I was going to really start digging into ADPs and the value opportunities as we’re only a couple weeks out from the start of the season.  I don’t expect the current ADPs to be indicative of what will happen in a couple weeks, especially after the EK65 trade. 

Before I jump into the analysis I think it is important to remember the following facts:

  1. The data below represents 56 players being drafted and rostered at each position
  2. My blueline strategy is going to significantly differ from most experts – please read this for the reasoning. This strategy will affect the rankings of positional players.
  3. Positions matter more than most are willing to admit
  4. I don’t care about goalies and nor should you – I dare you to skip goalies
  5. Value over replacement is the primary method I use to rank players
  6. ADPs on Yahoo! Are significantly skewed by decimals – you could have ten players ranked at 162: 162.1, 162.2, 162.3 etc.  – You need to think critically.

This week I will take a look at my favorite position, RW.  There seems to be limitless value opportunities this year at RW.  The way I judge the likelihood of success for my team is by adding up all the total z-scores of my players and comparing them to the totals of the other teams.  You have to be willing to find the value later in the draft and allowing that to dictate who you pick in the earlier rounds. 

Something that bugs me about most fantasy sports is when people suggest that you should take the best player available. I disagree wholeheartedly. 

For example last year, I believed strongly in Shayne Gostisbehere (remember when he willed Union to the national championship?), long story short I believed that I had a number one blueliner and for that reason I could forgo drafting D early.  Victor Hedman was available at my second pick in a 14 team league, but it didn’t make sense because the overall value of my team would have been impacted by sele