Eastern Edge: LW Draft Strategy and Eastern Conference Targets

Cam Metz

2018-09-25

Based on the feedback from the readers the RW rank article last week was something everyone appreciated.  Excuse some of the redundancies in this article, but I think it is useful for people to understand the strategy that was used to generate the rankings below.

 

  1. The data below represents 56 players being drafted and rostered  at each position
  2. My blueline strategy is going to significantly differ from most experts – please read this for the reasoning. This strategy will affect the rankings of positional players.
  3. Positions matter more than most are willing to admit
  4. I don’t care about goalies and nor should you – I dare you to skip goalies
  5. Value over replacement is the primary method I use to rank players
  6. ADPs on Yahoo! Are significantly skewed by decimals – you could have ten players ranked at 162: 162.1, 162.2, 162.3 etc.  – You need to think critically.
  7. Whenever a player is given dual eligibility I take the wing as their position.   In a (LW,RW) case I shift them to RW since historically I’ve had a harder time finding value at that position.  Otherwise, a (C,LW) is classified as LW.

 

This week I’ll take a look at the LW and do some of the similar analysis. 

 

A brief overview of the data is as follows; I compiled five fantasy expert hockey predictions together and averaged the following stats: goals, assists, SOG, and PP.   I scored the players within their positional groups and then divided the total of each position by the stats that I felt were indicative of value.  If you’ve read the above link of the blue line you’ll know what I’m talking about.

 

Here is an explanation of the graph that will be generated using the above data:

 

 

 

The point to be had from all of this is that if you’re drafting Ovechkin in the first round and then you find yourself wondering if you should take Jamie Benn in the second you’re probably better off drafting Chris Kreider and allocating that draft capital to another position.  You can only have so many LW on your roster; drafting the best player available doesn’t allow you to maximize value.

 

Here is a link to the tweet that shows the graph in more detail.  When you look at the graph what do you see?