Eastern Edge: Expected Goals vs Actual Production

Cam Metz



Reading Tom Collins article on Top 10 disappointing goalies was fun.  I still firmly plant my flag in the goalies don’t matter group so we’ll see if that changes at the year chugs along.   I’m benefiting from the otherworldly play of Jaroslav Halak in Boston who continues to thwart off Tuukka Rask’s starts.   Two other goalies that Tom touches on Matt Murray and Sergei Bobrovsky are also not living up to their ADP.  Imagine having that extra defender or another skilled winger instead of these guys?  Granted you might end up with Mike Smith – but at least your skaters will be fun to watch.

Using Corsica’s expected goal totals I think at this point it is interesting to see who is underperforming models versus who is over performing:

Thus far the players with green points have been unlucky as they have at least one goal that have not been credited with.  The players in the upper half with red dots are players who are over performing the models approximation of the number of goals they should have scored thus far.   Elite scorers can beat this model, it’s good to keep this in mind when you see Ovechkin’s name highlighted.   Taylor hall would be considered an elite scorer yet his name is someone who has not benefited from the luck of the puck thus far.  I’m keen on acquiring him if possible. 

Add Sam Reinhart to the list of players to target after a very slow start.  Fifty-point rookies don’t grow on tree’s they tend to go up quickly. 


Top 3 lines in the East at 5v5:

John Tavares, Mitch Marner, Zach Hyman – The line has scored ten times this year and has only allowed four goals against.  They have been expected to score 8.5x thus far.  It’ll be interesting to see if Hyman can use this as a spring board to fantasy relevance.

Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak, Patrice Bergeron – Surprisingly even though this line has scored ten times this year, they have also let in s