Welcome back to the Wild West. It's time for a sequel to last week's Over Performing Goal Scorers in the West. This week we are going to take a look at players who are under performing their expectations. Again credit to Sean Tierney for the vizzes, one of which we will look at below.
This viz shows the top 10 players in the west who are not scoring as much as we would expect given their shot amount and shot quality. In this case the viz is a bit reversed. Reilly Smith is the current leader in this category and Evander Kane is number 10. If you want the full list go check out Tierney’s site, but I wanted to do a quick dive into a couple of the guys below.
Rounding out the top ten, Kane has totaled nine goals thus far. His expected goals at this point is just over 12, which means he could have about three more goals to his name. Now that doesn’t exactly sounds like a huge deal, but a three goal difference right now would up his point pace from .59 to about .7 (in a full season pace that is a change from about 48 to 57 points).
Kane’s shots per game numbers are in the right ballpark but actually slightly down from 3.9 in 2017-18 to 3.71 shots per game in 2018-19 (still excellent though). He is also seeing a bit of a decrease in power play time of late. In his last ten games there is only one where he spent more than two minutes on the power play. That decrease isn’t exactly the most positive sign, and neither is the fact that he has spent a number of games recently away from Joe Pavelski at even strength.
On the plus side Kane does have two goals in his last two games, and was back with Pavelski at even strength as of Saturday. Keeping that deployment will help keep his time on ice high, which is important for Kane in keeping his shot totals up. Unfortunately Kane has never had a fantastic shooting percentage, and that seems unlikely to suddenly change, particularly without solid top power play deployment. His current shooting percentage is down a bit from his career numbers, as is his the team’s five-on-five shooting percentage when he is on the ice. It seems to imply that Kane’s luck, as well as his line’s, could swing in a positive direction soon, and give him a few more goals and points in general.
Like Kane, Tyler Seguin’s expected goal number is right around 12. And like Kane he does have some goals to his name (8). He is also maintaining his shot numbers, and in fact has improved his shot per game numbers from just over four in 2017-18 to 4.65 so far in 2018-19.
Unlike Kane though, Tyler Seguin has a significant history of d