Looking Ahead: Navigating the Holiday Break
Adam Daly-Frey
2018-12-21
All fantasy owners need help in the short term AND the long term. The Looking Ahead feature identifies one player to plug into lineups in the short term, a second to invest in for the long term, a third to bench for the coming week, and a fourth who will struggle to meet expectations for some time. All players discussed are selected based on their upcoming schedule.
Stats updated through Wednesday, December 19
The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)
Cam Ward, G, Chicago Blackhawks (Available in 85 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – Nothing about Ward’s stat line this year screams “GRAB HIM” – Ward has a dismal 0.888 SV%, 3.95 GAA and only five wins in 13 starts – but with another concussion to Corey Crawford, it’ll be Ward’s net for the foreseeable future. The interesting thing about the ugly GAA is that Ward has been peppered with pucks (good for leagues that track raw saves) and has only had two “really bad starts” where his save percentage was below 85%.
He’s proven in the past to be a competent starter, and is a fine stop-gap for Crawford owners or fantasy owners in deep leagues where goalies are as scarce as hen’s teeth.
The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)
Ryan Pulock, D, New York Islanders (Available in 64 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – The way this section of the article usually gets written is sorting all players on Yahoo! by ownership, and then scrolling down until everyone is below 50%; the reason that’s mentioned is because of the absolute shock when I saw Ryan Pulock only 36% owned. While his 14 points (2G-12A) aren’t jaw-dropping, Pulock’s ownership is half of Aaron Ekblad’s, which is absurd – Pulock is playing 22:54 per game, and is picking up 3.4 combined hits/blocks per game, 2.15 shots per game and getting PP2 time. If you’re in a league where Pulock is available, jump on that now and right this wrong.
The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)
David Krejci, C, Boston Bruins (Owned in 38 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – If you picked up Krejci while Patrice Bergeron was injured, job well done, congratulations! Unfortunately, he can be benched for the next little while, as Patrice Bergeron is due back this week and Krejci’s role as first-line centre between Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak will come to an end. A total of 14 of Krejci’s 29 points this season have been attached to either Marchand or Pastrnak, and he plays the bulk of his minutes away from those two when Bergeron is in the lineup.
If you can shop him in a 2-for-1 trade, now would be the time to do it, but otherwise he can sit on the bench until Jake DeBrusk gets back or get dropped entirely.
The Anchors (They’ll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)
Mikhail Sergachev, D, Tampa Bay Lightning (Owned in 56 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – Sergachev has been a big disappointment this year as he’s picked up zero goals and twelve assists in 35 games so far, and Thursday night found himself in the press box. There’s no question that Sergachev is an offensive talent and will produce closer to the 9G-31A in 79 games that he put up last year, but behind Victor Hedman and now Ryan McDonagh in both ice time and special teams roles, it may not be for a while yet.
His name still has value and Tampa Bay is a very good team, so he could probably fetch a strong return in keeper leagues or leagues that track plus/minus (although he’s sitting at only +6 on the season.)
Love ‘Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)
Colorado – If you’re lucky enough to own one or more of MacKinnon / Rantanen / Landeskog, you’re licking your lips at the Avs’ upcoming games: Colorado plays six times between December 21 and January 2, including Chicago twice, Los Angeles and San Jose (all at home) as well as playing Vegas and Arizona on the road. Colorado continues to be a one-line team, but the depth scoring in Tyson Jost/JT Compher can knock in the odd goal as well.
Arizona – Their scoring has dried up over the past couple games, but Arizona will squeeze in six games in this period, and get to face some woeful defensive opponents in Edmonton, Los Angeles and Anaheim. The ‘Yotes are at home for the game against the Oilers as well as facing Vegas and Colorado at home, and will do the California road trip against the Kings, Ducks and Sharks.
Boston – There are teams with more games in this stretch than the Bruins have, but Boston gets the advantage of playing against Carolina, Buffalo and Chicago – all on the road – as well as home games against Nashville and New Jersey. Boston should be back to almost full strength, with the return of Patrice Bergeron imminent and Zdeno Chara not too far behind.
Leave ‘Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)
Minnesota – The Wild will be without the services of Matt Dumba for a while, and have a tough schedule ahead with only four games going to January 2. Minnesota’s had a lot of trouble scoring of late: in their last ten games, the Wild scored three or less eight times, but exploded for games of seven goals and five goals, which makes their overall rank of 17th feel a bit fraudulent. The Wild will split two road games (Chicago, Winnipeg) and two home games (Dallas, Pittsburgh.)
NY Islanders – A major surprise defensively – the Islanders rank fourth in goals against on the season – but a major disappointment offensively, don’t look for much out of the Islanders over the holidays; while a home game against Ottawa is always good for offensive production, road games against Dallas, Toronto, and Buffalo aren’t as appealing.
Montreal – Montreal’s schedule is as bleak as the Wild and Islanders, but even worse for the Habs is that all four games come on the road. The Habs get to spend New Year’s Eve in Dallas, and also face Vegas, Florida and Tampa – with the game against the Lightning the second half of a back-to-back.
(Editor’s note: No games are scheduled between Monday, December 24, and Wednesday, December 26)
December 21 to December 27 |
Best Bets |
WSH 3.46 – Away OTT – Home BUF CAR |
BOS 3.1875 – Away CAR – Home NSH NJD |
VGK 3.15 – Away – Home MTL LAK COL |
COL 3.055 – Away ARI VGK- Home CHI |
NJD 2.9975 – Away BOS- Home OTT CBJ |
Steer Clear |
MTL 0.95 – Away VGK – Home |
NYI 0.9975 – Away DAL – Home |
OTT 1.9425 – Away NJD – Home WSH |
VAN 1.9475 – Away EDM- Home WPG |
CGY 1.9525 – Away WPG- Home STL |
December 22 to December 28 |
Best Bets |
CBJ 4.0425 – Away PHI NJD NYR – Home TOR |
FLA 3.2925 – Away DET CHI – Home MTL |
BOS 3.1875 – Away CAR – Home NSH NJD |
TOR 3.17 – Away CBJ- Home NYR DET |
VGK 3.15 – Away – Home MTL LAK COL |
Steer Clear |
NJD 1.8425 – Away BOS – Home CBJ |
COL 1.9 – Away ARI VGK – Home |
MTL 1.9 – Away VGK FLA- Home |
OTT 1.9425 – Away NYI- Home WSH |
BUF 1.9475 – Away STL – Home ANH |
December 23 to December 29 |
Best Bets |
BOS 3.2875 – Away CAR BUF- Home NJD |
FLA 3.25 – Away CHI – Home MTL PHI |
DAL 3.165 – Away NSH – Home NYI DET |
TOR 3.1175 – Away CBJ – Home DET NYI |
NYI 3.1025 – Away DAL TOR- Home OTT |
Steer Clear |
MTL 1.805 – Away FLA TBL- Home |
VAN 1.9 – Away EDM CGY- Home
📢 advertisement:
|
OTT 1.9425 – Away NYI – Home WSH |
MIN 1.9475 – Away CHI WPG- Home |
WPG 1.995 – Away – Home CGY MIN |
December 24 to December 30 |
Best Bets |
VGK 2.86 – Away LAK ARI- Home COL |
ARI 2.76 – Away LAK ANH – Home VGK |
WSH 2.305 – Away OTT – Home CAR |
NSH 2.2575 – Away – Home DAL NYR |
EDM 2.2575 – Away – Home VAN SJS |
Steer Clear |
PHI 1.805 – Away TBL FLA – Home |
NYR 1.7475 – Away NSH – Home CBJ |
CAR 1.8525 – Away WSH NJD – Home |
MTL 1.805 – Away FLA TBL – Home |
DET 1.8525 – Away PIT DAL – Home |
December 25 to December 31 |
Best Bets |
NJD 3.4175 – Away BOS – Home CAR VAN |
STL 3.255 – Away – Home BUF PIT NYR |
EDM 3.255 – Away – Home VAN SJS WPG |
FLA 3.2975 – Away DET- Home MTL PHI |
WSH 3.25 – Away OTT – Home CAR NSH |
Steer Clear |
TOR 1.91 – Away CBJ – Home NYI |
CHI 1.9425 – Away COL – Home MIN |
BOS 2.1475 – Away BUF – Home NJD |
NYR 2.6975 – Away NSH STL- Home CBJ |
OTT 2.75 – Away NYI CBJ- Home WSH |
December 26 to January 1 |
Best Bets |
NSH 4.1625 – Away WSH – Home DAL NYR PHI |
LAK 4.0475 – Away COL VGK- Home ARI VGK |
PHI 3.8 – Away TBL FLA CAR NSH- Home |
VGK 3.7525 – Away LAK ARI – Home COL LAK |
NJD 3.4175 – Away BOS – Home CAR VAN |
Steer Clear |
TOR 1.91 – Away CBJ – Home NYI |
NYR 2.6975 – Away NSH STL – Home CBJ |
OTT 2.75 – Away NYI CBJ – Home WSH |
ARI 2.76 – Away LAK ANH – Home VGK |
MTL 2.8025 – Away FLA TBL DAL – Home |
December 27 to January 2 |
Best Bets |
NJD 4.415 – Away BOS DAL- Home CAR VAN |
DAL 4.32 – Away NSH – Home DET MTL NJD |
CGY 4.2525 – Away WPG DET- Home VAN SJS |
EDM 4.205 – Away ARI- Home VAN SJS WPG |
NSH 4.1625 – Away WSH – Home DAL NYR PHI |
Steer Clear |
TOR 1.91 – Away CBJ – Home NYI |
MTL 2.8025 – Away FLA TBL DAL – Home |
MIN 2.8925 – Away CHI WPG – Home PIT |
CAR 2.9025 – Away WSH NJD – Home PHI |
ANH 2.945 – Away SJS – Home ARI TBL |