Eastern Edge: Buy Low and Sell High Candidates Using IPP

Cam Metz

2019-01-22

 

The midseason guide is still for sale, it’ll still help you get geared up for the stretch run –there is a lot of information in there that you won’t find in the ramblings or weekly columns. It’s your last chance to hone in on your team’s weaknesses.

Over the last couple of season roughly speaking an average a player in the top-200 of point producers will see around 95 goals scored while they are on the ice in all situations.  Obviously this number is a little higher in 120s for a top player, but in general the 95 goals is a great approximation for how turning an IPP into a quantified point production.  Interestingly this season we are seeing some of the top players pace for a goals scored while they are on the ice around 140.  You have to get to the top 80 to get the average just around 130 GF.  This falls in line with the general narrative of the season, there are more goals being scored this season compared to the last couple of seasons.  

I’ve written a lot about IPP and how it can dictate what we expect to see happen with a player over the rest of the season. Remember IPP is the percentage of times a player gets a point when they are on the ice and a goal is scored.  Better players tend to have higher IPPs because they are out there making plays.

It’s hard to see how IPP at a glance could impact a player on your team, when you’re talking about a couple percentage points it’s difficult to quickly translate that into total points scored for your player and how that could be changing as regression rears its head. For example if player A has an IPP of 75% but his average is usually around 67%  what does that mean for the total points score for the player? Well it depends on how many goals have been scored while they are on the ice. 

Hold that thought on IPP and what has been going on this season.

If you look at how players have produced so far this season, their “82 game pace” we’ll call it, then you can get a gauge of what they are projected to score without injuries or having a couple games less than a player on another team.  This is a great way to see how Taylor Hall is doing even though he’s been off the ice for a little while with a lower body injury.  Thankfully Frozen Tools takes care of the leg work for you – see Taylor Hall below:

 

 

So Hall is on a 92-point pace – when he is all systems go you want him in your lineup (obviously).  So you go over to the advanced stats page and you’re presented with this table:

 

 

Looking at his IPP you can see that he has a healthy 77 percent – this is a great example because you can see how consistent Hall has been the last seven seasons, he has average a 77 percent IPP.  In fact, you’ll see quite often that most players fall within 5 percent over their average over a 3 to 4 year period.