With all indications pointing toward Sergei Bobrovsky playing his last season in Columbus before becoming a UFA, what can we expect from him moving forward with a new team?

He has surpassed 30 wins this season for the fifth time in his career and has reached a career high of eight shutouts. His save percentage has dipped to 0.912 compared to his three-year average of 0.922, and his percentage of quality starts is his third lowest in his nine years in the NHL at 50%. He is starting to heat up this past quarter after being fairly average for most of the year. In the past 13 games of the fourth quarter, he has a save percentage of 0.925 and a goals-against average of 2.12.
 

Looking at the shots breakdown on Dobber Frozen Tools, Columbus actually gives up a fair amount of high danger chances and allows shots from much closer than most teams. When Bobrovsky is in the net this year, the high danger percentage is 22.5%, while the average distance for shots is 35.8 feet. This ranks him 11^th in the league in high danger percentage chances and eighth in the league in shortest average distance for shots (30 games or more).

It’s not just this season, as Bobrovsky has ranged from 20.4 to 25.7 in high danger percentage and 33.9 to 36.6 feet of distance in the past four seasons with Columbus, which is consistently in the top 15. If you look back at team PDO for Columbus, it is 100.9 this season and was 102.8 the year that Bobrovsky had his save percentage at 0.931 (2016-2017), which proved to be above a sustainable level for both Columbus and Bobrovsky. His WAR (wins above replacement) is still positive at 3.0 in 2018-2019, down from 7.3 last season and 11.3 the year before that, according to Evolving Hockey.

Goalies are one of the hardest positions to prognosticate, as they can drop off or explode onto the scene so quickly. However, only a few goalies consistently deliver solid stats over time, and Bobrovsky is one of them. Looking forward to July when Bobrovsky either signs with a new team or elects to stay in Columbus, we can be fairly assured that he will be able to sustain his 50-60 games and save percentage above 0.910. He will most likely end up having fewer high-quality chances against and might face longer shots, so he could elevate his save percentage and get above 0.920 again. If he ends up with a winning team, he is a lock for 30-plus wins and four or five shutouts for the next three to five years.

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