Wild West: Streaming Success, Parise Resurgence

Chris Kane

2019-04-15

 

Throughout the regular season the weekly Wild West column attempted to provide some player options of for your week ahead. About halfway through the season we did a check in to see how accurate those predictions were. I presented it for a couple of reasons:

1. My recommendations are only any good if they actually help out your team and I appreciated other writers holding themselves accountable for the recommendations.

2. If my recommendations aren’t providing value, I would like to be able to reassess and figure out a way to improve them. To that end I am going to provide a season recap and see how I did overall and if there are any lessons to be learned in the future.

 

Let’s start off with a little recap from that mid-season article:

 

When I recommend a streamer I am usually looking at a low owned (typically 20% or less in Yahoo) player who I think has a shot at giving you more production than the last man on your roster for the week. The theory being if you are able to swap a player or two out every week to take advantage of schedules, hot streaks, line combinations etc. you might be able to get more production out of that roster spot than keeping one player there all year. To that end you will often see the players recommended here have more scheduled games, or an off-day schedule to allow for more games played during the week. Again, the idea being that the lower ranked player (who may conceivably have fewer points per game) that can start more games will provide more production over a week than your player who has fewer games.

 

So how do we assess this? Well I am hoping that my picks will outperform the lowest player on your roster. If we assume a traditional Yahoo set up (12 teams, 16 players) I know about how many players will be rostered at any time. My goal then is to give a player who will get more points than those bottom 10-20 players. For ease of calculation and comparison I used Yahoo’s standard point valuations (six points for a goal, four for an assist etc.). I was able to calculate that the average player in the range we are talking about would generate 4.95 points per game, or 14.86 total over a traditional three game week on average. That is the target then. In order for a recommendation to be counted a success each pick needed to generate more than 14.86 points during the week.

 

Over the course of the season I made 34 recommendations for streamers. During most of the the season I picked two players to highlight every week (there were several weeks I changed the format of the article so did not make any recommendations in the usual way). Of those 34 streamers, 24 exceeded the threshold outlined above for a success rate of 71%.

 

To be slightly more specific: on a weekly basis the expected number of points for someone in that slot was 14.86 (as above), my streamer picks averaged 21.58 a week. In addition, the per game value of the streamers was also higher, averaging 5.47 points per game vs the 4.95 point per game average from above. In general it appears (at least for 2018-19) following my picks could have provided value to your fantasy team (assuming your value structure is similar-ish to the format outlined above).

 

Still as ge