Eastern Edge: Production and Expected Production from Atlantic Right Wingers

Cam Metz

2019-04-16

 

Last week we covered LWs in the Atlantic and this week we’ll stay in that division to look at some of the RWs.  We’ll cover the same stat areas and throw in some of the historical data to show whether it is likely a player that performed well in the year 2018-2019 has a reasonable chance of repeating next year in 2019-2020.

The graph depicting used to highlight RW goal scoring abilities this year is below. The graph can help you visualize where a player falls with regards to their actual goal totals and the difference between actual and expected goals scored (X-Axis), and their individual shooting percentage from this year (Y-Axis).  Given that the league average shooting percentage is around 11% you can see if there are any big names on the list that fall in the category of having a below average shooting percentage and room to grow in the actual goals scored.  More than anything I think that this graph can find you a couple extra goals and make sure you realize that 40 goals by one player may mean that they could fall back to 32 next year.  Player skill/opportunity is still something to remember – just because Ondrej Palat ends up in quadrant that tends to be a BUY area doesn’t mean he’s a 40-goal scorer.  Please note that all the data used to create this graph is for a 5v5 situation and was obtained via Corsica.Hockey.

 

 

That leads us to discuss Nikita Kucherov, don’t worry I told everyone to not draft him if you were in the top three picks after he scored 100 points in 2017-2018 it seemed unlikely he could smash the 100-point barrier again.  Interestingly part his goal scoring this year was due to his high shooting percentage of 16.7%.  As an elite player we can expect to see the season where top players produce extraordinary results, it was interesting to see him perform even better this year despite taking 33 less shots in two more games this year.   Last year I was wrong and so I won’t make that mistake again – aside from a high shooting percentage and relatively large ixGF-G gap; you can safely hang your hat on drafting Kucherov if he is available at your draft table last year.   Sorry for being so wrong – again I didn’t hate Kucherov last year I just didn’t think his ADP was going to return 100+; boy was I wrong.

One player that I did nail last summer before ADPs were released was Brendan Gallagher.  Gally scored 30+ goals for the second year in a row and did this by producing 300 SOG this year.  It was also the second year in row that he has been able to play 82 games after having two straight seasons cut short because of injury problems.