Eastern Edge: Goals and Expected Goals Among Right Wingers in the Metro

Cam Metz



Thus far in my offseason Eastern Edge columns, we’ve supposedly uncovered the pitfall of drafting Jeff Skinner next season regardless where he signs this summer, and we’ve zeroed in on Anthony Mantha as a must draft.  This week, we will continue this discussion with right wingers in the Metro.  There were quite a few great seasons in the Metro and a couple of players who I’m excited about for next season.

The graph below highlight RW goal scoring abilities this year in the Metro.  The graph can help you visualize where a player falls with regards to their actual goal totals and the difference between actual and expected goals scored (X-Axis), and their individual shooting percentage from this year (Y-Axis).  Given that the league average shooting percentage is around 11% you can see if there are any big names on the list that fall in the category of having a below average shooting percentage and room to grow in the actual goals scored.  More than anything I think that this graph can find you a couple extra goals and make sure you realizes that 40 goals by one player may mean that they could fall back to 32 next year.  Player skill/opportunity is still something to remember – just because Ondrej Palat ends up in quadrant that tends to be a BUY area doesn’t mean he’s a 40-goal scorer.  Please note that all the data used to create this graph is for a 5v5 situation and was obtained via Corsica.Hockey.



Andrei Svechnikov – Some games this season Svechnikov put it all together and showed everyone why he was selected second overall in the 2018 Entry Draft; other days he was the 37-point player over an 82-game season.  For those who were watching him though – you noticed what force is going to be coming.  His 5v5 shot data suggests he was owned a couple more goals, as he matures he should get a couple more minutes of ice time next season and I hope that he’ll find his way onto the top unit with Aho.  There is no reason to wait for the fourth year breakout, and wouldn’t you rather be a year early than a year late?

Jordan Eberle – probably chalk this one up to the big game play of his recent playoff run, but man I had been beating the drum of Eberle all year saying his tough string of luck in his IPP can’t continue.   What I’m more excited about with Eberle is where he will be playing next