It’s been a fun start to the fantasy offseason so far identifying the easy draft day steals for next year. For a summary of those articles check out these links RW-Metro, RW-Atlantic, LW-Atlantic. All you really need to know is that you should be smashing the draft button on Anthony Mantha and Brendan Gallagher come next season. This week we’ll look at the left wings in the Atlantic.
The graph below highlight LW goal scoring abilities this year in the Metro. The graph can help you visualize where a player falls with regards to their actual goal totals and the difference between actual and expected goals scored (X-Axis), and their individual shooting percentage from this year (Y-Axis). Given that the league average shooting percentage is around 11% you can see if there are any big names on the list that fall in the category of having a below average shooting percentage and room to grow in the actual goals scored. More than anything I think that this graph can find you a couple extra goals and make sure you realizes that 40 goals by one player may mean that they could fall back to 32 next year. Player skill/opportunity is still something to remember – just because Ondrej Palat ends up in quadrant that tends to be a BUY area doesn’t mean he’s a 40-goal scorer. Please note that all the data used to create this graph is for a 5v5 situation and was obtained via Corsica.Hockey.
Jake Guentzel exceled en route to his first 40-goal season. His release and willingness to battle in front of the net has cemented him as fixture on the wing alongside Sidney Crosby. He saw an increase to almost 19 minutes a game with two minutes on the power play – however not always on the first unit. Next season look for Guentzel to take another step forward as he gains more time on the top unit. He’s going to need this role promotion in order to offset the 17% shooting percentage he sported this season. Expect at least a 30 goal season from Guentzel again next year. Obviously there are signs of concern with him far exceeding his ixGF; but the deployment, age, and historical production indicate Guentzel should be just fine. The main problem with Guentzel next season is where you’ll need to draft him in order to get him onto your