Eastern Edge: Goals and Expected Goals from Atlantic Centres

Cam Metz



Last week we talked about the value that will likely be had at the draft next season for the center position in the Metro.   This week we have a few players that also will present a nice value option, but really there are a few more players that I personally would avoid next season. 

This highlights center goal scoring abilities this year in the Atlantic.  The graph can help you visualize where a player falls with regards to their actual goal totals and the difference between actual and expected goals scored (X-Axis), and their individual shooting percentage from this year (Y-Axis).  Given that the league average shooting percentage is around 11% you can see if there are any big names on the list that fall in the category of having a below average shooting percentage and room to grow in the actual goals scored.  More than anything I think that this graph can find you a couple extra goals and make sure you realizes that 40 goals by one player may mean that they could fall back to 32 next year.  Player skill/opportunity is still something to remember – just because Colin White ends up in quadrant that tends to be a BUY area doesn’t mean he’s a 40-goal scorer.  Please note that all the data used to create this graph is for a 5v5 situation and was obtained via Corsica.Hockey.



The below player visuals show how a player performed in the 2018-2019 compared to their previous three year average. Let’s first dig through the details – I plotted Assists/GP, Goal/GP, and Points/GP for each player. The red bar is the pace the player would have ended up with in an 82-game season.  The greenish bar is the three year mean of the player.  Obviously the three year mean can be a little tricky to use as a baseline for newer players.  One last observation – the smaller numbers at the top of each bar represent the per game pace, and the bolded blue numbers inside of the bar are the 82 game pace extrapolated out for both data series.



The writing was on the wall all of last summer for the increased role that Larkin would play in the Red Wings’ plans.  He increased his time on ice almost two minutes per game and added an additional 50 SOG compared to the previous season.  This led to a career high in points (73) for an 82-game pace of 79 points.  As written earlier, an increased presence of Anthony Mantha could help propel Larkin into the high 80s in points this coming season. Interestingly last year Larkin shot 11%, which was actually a four year high for him.  A player of his skill likely has another gear to reach with shooting accuracy so this could be one area that he takes another step