Forum Buzz: Are These Players ‘Really’ As Good As They Seem?

Rick Roos

2019-06-12

 

Welcome to another edition of “Forum Buzz,” a column where I dissect some of the most popular posts from the DobberHockey Forums. Pretty much anything posted within the forums over the past month might be covered, other than trades (those usually will get their own separate write-ups on the site and are also covered in the next day’s Ramblings) and signings (those tend to be dissected in Alex McClean’s weekly Capped column). With that out of the way, let’s get rolling!

 

Topic #1 – Based on what we’ve seen so far, particularly in 2018-19, is Max Domi a sell-high?

Domi’s fourth season was indeed a magical one, seeing him top his career best scoring rate by 20 points. Yet I don’t blame some for wondering if he might’ve overachieved, in part because of the extent (38%) by which he surpassed his previous career high. As always, let’s see what the numbers tell us.

Although Domi was consistent in scoring 14-24 points in each quarter and his overall ice time average per game was 17:00 -17:17 in three of the four quarters, his PP time per quarter went from 3:10 per game in the first quarter (when he scored 24 points in 20 games) to 2:13 in the second quarter, to 2:01 in the third quarter, to 1:10 in the fourth. At first that looks very concerning; but it turns out Domi still took the ice for 40%+ of Montreal overall PP time in 12 of those 20 fourth quarter games, and Montreal had no power plays in four of the 20, dragging down his – and everyone else’s – per game average. Even still, if we look to Q1, Domi took the ice for 59% or more of the team’s PP Time in 12 of 20 games, versus just three in Q4; so although his Q4 numbers look worse than they actually were, they certainly weren’t on a par with Q1. There’s also the fact that he had seven PPPts in Q1, but a mere four more over the rest of the season. Accordingly, Domi might not have a spot on Montreal’s PP1 locked up.

On the other hand, in Q1 Domi averaged 2 SOG per game, but in Q4 he was above 2 per game, so he had that going for him. And his SOG rate for the season was 2.47 per game after never previously having reached even two per game. No surprise – that led to more goals; but his personal shooting percentage was 13.8% after only once being above 8.3% in his previous seasons. Digging deeper, we see his average shot distance was 29.2 feet, or nearly as low as when he was a rookie and shot 11.5%. So Domi was shooting more but taking quality shots, which is a good sign that his 28 goals for 2018-19 was not a fluke and could improve further if his quarter to quarter trend of increasing SOG continues, which is realistic since of the 58 players who potted 28+ goals last season all but 13 had more SOG than Domi’s 203.

As for Domi’s advanced stats, his 10.69% team sh