Frozen Tools Forensics: Bounce back candidates, part 3

Grant Campbell

2019-07-12

 

Free agent signings have slowed down, but have continued to trickle in over the past week with a few interesting signings. It’s tough to compete with the NBA and what is happening there right now, but we’ll continue to look at a few more bounce-back candidates below. Some of these players are a little risky as they might just be entering the downward trend in their careers, but perhaps they have a few more years in them to put up good numbers again?

 

Max Pacioretty

Pacioretty averaged around 0.80 pts/g from 2011-2012 to 2016-2017 and potted more than 30 goals five times in that span. In the past two seasons, he has missed 18 and 16 games and topped out at 40 points and 22 goals, which has been a disappointment for most of his fantasy owners (including me). With the move to Vegas, Pacioretty has seen his ice time diminish from his days in Montreal and as a result his shots on goal have decreased.

Pacioretty had been a shot machine averaging over 3.6 shots/g in Montreal for his last seven seasons there, but it fell to 2.89 shots/g in his first season in Vegas. His PDO has been low over the past two seasons, being 968 in his last year in Montreal and 979 in Vegas. His expected goals (Off_xG) is higher than what he has produced the past two seasons, so there should be an increase if he is healthy next season. The addition of Mark Stone for a full season can only help Pacioretty return to a 26-32 goal level and 50-60 points.

 

Ryan Getzlaf

Getzlaf is 34 now, and we all need to ask what he has left in the tank. His pts/g of 0.72 was his lowest since 2011-2012 but he still was on pace for a 59-point season. Getzlaf has averaged just over 72 games per season (not including the 44 games he played in 2012-2013), so we can’t assume he will play any more than that next season. I just can’t see Anaheim being a playoff team and/or scoring a lot of goals next season with the roster they currently have. Getzlaf is still very valuable in pools that include hits (although 150 last season seems a little high and should come down) and faceoffs, but he is unlikely to reach 25 goals again. Temper your expectations to 15 goals and 40 assists, but know he could have one more season of 20 goals and 55 assists in him.

 

Jamie Benn

Benn had his least productive NHL season since his rookie year in 2009-2010. He’s only missed ten games in the past six seasons, which is an accomplishment in itself, but he dipped to 53 points in 78 games and the signs don’t point to him bouncing all the way back to where he was with close to a point per game. One of my first player profiles with Dobber was on Benn, back in March 2019, and I stated he might have one more bounce-back in him but he is definitely slowing down at 29.

Not much has changed for my outlook on Benn, other than Dallas adding