Wild West: 3 Players Being Drafted Too High, 3 Players Being Drafted Too Low

Chris Kane

2019-09-23

 

So we have finally concluded our summer series and now our focus turns to the draft table in earnest. Our summer series highlighted players who were excellent value, or extreme disappointments on draft day in 2018-19, but as we turn to 2019-20 our goal is to grab the draft steals and avoid the busts. One way we can accomplish this is to analyze the standard projections that platforms are putting out as these default lists can be highly influential in dictating when players are taken. By taking a look at those projections we can guess which players might be drafted too high by your opponents, or who might fall to later rounds, which can help us figure out which players might be good value, and those we may want to avoid.

 

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For the purposes of this article we are going to look at points only. League configurations vary dramatically so it is hard to create a list that works for everyone. Almost all leagues use goals and assists though so we should have a solid baseline for consideration.

 

 

Draft Day Deals (players who are projected too low)

 

Erik Gustafsson – D – Chicago

Gustafsson had a career year in 2018-19. His 60 points in 79 games was a massive improvement over his 15 points in 34 games from 2017-18. Yahoo has him pegged for 51 points, and Gustafsson could be excellent value at that projection.

 

The explosion in points that Gustafsson saw was due to him ascending to Chicago’s top power play. That deployment is very likely to continue in 2018-19. Yahoo’s projection takes that into account, but is regressing him a touch too hard. His personal, and team five-on-five shooting percentages were a bit high over the course of the season so it is possible he puts up closer to a 55 point pace. One thing in his favor though is that he put up a 60 point pace when he only had the top power-play deployment for three quarters of the season. During the first chunk of the year Duncan Keith and