West: Goals vs. Expectation (Schenn, Bonino, Getzlaf)
This week we are kicking off a two-week look at who is scoring in the west. More than that though we are going to be looking at who might be scoring a bit more than we can expect them to, and who might be scoring less.
This week we are going to look at the top end of the spectrum. These are players who have high goal total numbers and low expected goal numbers. Essentially we are looking at players who have scored perhaps too many goals. These are guys that likely have high shooting percentages and who we might want to think about what value they have to others in our leagues as their goal-scoring is likely going to slow down.
Our top ten in this category is listed below (viz courtesy of Sean Tierney.)
It is hard to tell the scale here without the full chart, but Schenn at the top is almost 6 goals above his expected number and Adam Henrique at the bottom is about 3.5 goals over his expected numbers.
Schenn has 10 goals in 18 games, so it is no surprise that he tops this list. He just isn’t really the type to challenge for a 50-goal season, particularly with only 36 shots to his name. That puts his pace down at two shots per game, which is certainly not enough to score at his current pace. It looks like his total point pace isn’t too far off the mark, so it is possible we start to see some of those lost goals replaced with assists. Schenn is still getting good deployment – though without Vladimir Tarasenko because of his injury. His value is likely higher now with the heavy goal totals that it will be soon, so if you can get a good deal for him, now might be the time.
Not sure anyone saw this one coming. Bonino has been on fire the last few weeks, and as eight goals to his name for the season. With a career high of 22 goals (over 10 seasons), it seems unlikely he has suddenly turned over a new leaf. His deployment looks to be about the same as usual, but as we might imagine his shooting percentage is an unsustainable 25%. He isn’t shooting much either, with 32 shots over his 17 games. Expect a crash for Bonino and for it to hit hard. I don’t know what you can get for a player who has failed to break 40 points for the last five seasons, but if someone is willing to bite, make it happen.
Getzlaf has seven goals in his 18 games (but only four assists). In his case, he is actually shooting a bit, with a shot total of 50, but his shooting percentage is still a touch high (14.6%). Of the three we have talked about he is the most likely to be able to continue scoring and it wouldn’t be surprising to see those assist numbers tick up a bit. Getzlaf is aging so that is a concern these days but he seems to be performing reasonably well spending most of his time with Ondrej Kase.
Wild West Weekly Streamers:
It is a weird schedule week with pretty much all teams playing on Saturday. That makes it a little difficult to recommend streamers as many players will not make it into your lineup on Saturday.
Nick Schmaltz: Arizona plays three games before Saturday so you have a good chance to get in some games from Schmaltz. He has assists in four of his last five games, though his shot count leaves something to be desired.
Denis Gurianov – This one is a bit of a deep dive (4% owned in Yahoo). Dallas doesn’t play until Wednesday so there is room to fit someone in on Monday or Tuesday this week and then add a few Dallas games. Gurianov has 14 shots of his last three games, plus he hits so has definite value in multi-cat leagues.
Last Week’s Streamers
Zack Kassian: Kassian rewarded anyone who stuck with him all week. He ended the week with two goals, two assists, ten shots, and 10 hits for good measure. He got on the board early in the week, but Sunday’s matchup put the icing on the cake with three points.
Conor Garland: Garland had an assist and 11 shots over four games this last week. That likely puts him about even at best with random streamer we could have put in this week. I will take the shots, but was looking for an additional point.
Drop or Not:
Erik Gustafsson: Gustafsson took Chicago, and fantasy managers by storm in 2018-19 with an incredible breakout campaign. He put up 60 points and seemed to but the do Brent Seabrook, and Duncan Keith still deserve power-play time controversy to bed. He was drafted relatively high with managers anticipating he would keep that role, but so far he only has four points on the season. The news gets worse as has not been getting top power-play time and was healthy scratched back on 11/2. His is still getting some power-play two time and seeing reasonable all-around minutes, which can be helpful, but he isn’t shooting much and is not putting up any points.
There are two things happening here. One is that he has no goals, but 21 shots. He has historically been a high percentage shooter (at least for a D man) so we might normally have expected a goal or two at this point. His IPP and is also quite low, so there is some potential there as well. The second piece though is that he is not getting the deployment that managers had hoped. He had value because he was the top power-play quarterback on a power-play that was scoring a ton of goals. In 2019-20 he just doesn’t have that deployment anymore. He maybe should have had a couple of more points than his four but even so (and being a little generous) that puts him on a 40-45 point pace when he was likely drafted as a 60 point guy.
If he is available I don’t advise picking him up at this point. If you own, I doubt you will get anything like what you invested to grab him. Until something changes he is probably a safe drop at this point.
Thanks for reading, see you next week.
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