Capped: Prediction model for free agents
Alexander MacLean
2020-02-20
This week's Capped column is going to be a slightly different format. Down below will be a list on all of my model predictions for the projected cap hits of the 2020 free agent crop. In 2017, I started trying to model salaries, to some moderate level of success, but by 2018 it had grown so complicated, that it was more time consuming than it was worthwhile, in addition to being a lot about manual input, meaning my biases were still showing through. In 2019, I started the cap league rankings, and at that point, I knew I needed a more simplistic version of the salary prediction algorithm to be able to have the whole undertaking work. At the same time also determined that it wasn't a productive avenue of work to try and determine how long a contract will be, and there isn't a large benefit to knowing an approximate number of years ahead of time, so I have stopped trying to estimate it.
My rankings are for keeper leagues, and thus they take into account projected future cap hits for players with contracts expiring in the next three years. In order to be able to have this work for over 900 players that I am tracking, the manual input had to be completely cut out. As a result, I am still expanding on the new framework, but it has gotten to a point where the numbers seem viable enough to share with you readers.
A few weeks ago, I also went over a few contracts that I am curious to see the outcome on, mainly because there seems to be a lot of variance between the high and the low end of what we can expect. As a result of this variance, the projections for these players display some of the flaws in my current projection system, the main one being inability to properly deal with lengthy injury absences. This affects the projections shown for players such as Taylor Hall, Ilya Mikheyev, Erik Haula, Justin Schultz, and a few others. With that, the full disclaimer is that this list probably won't be perfect, and it's meant as a baseline of what someone's numbers show themselves to be worth when removing all of the biases we have towards player evaluation.
Also of note, the league minimum salary going into the 2020-2021 season will still be set at $700,000 (This is increasing to $750,000 for the 2021-2022 season). Almost half of the future free agents listed below show a league minimum salary projection, which generally means they have replacement level, or negative value for their team. Signing one of these players for more than a $1,000,000 cap hit would be a perceived overpayment by the team for a player who has many comparables on the market that could and will be signed for less.
All current salary info courtesy of capfriendly.
If you have questions, comments, or find an error in the sheet, let me know on Twitter @alexdmaclean, and if you're looking for some cap league trade deadline coverage, check out my articles from the last few weeks: Forwards, Defence, Goalies.
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Without further ado, the top 300 free agents for the summer of 2020, and their salary projections:
Name | Age | Position | Current Cap Hit | Projected Cap Hit |
Alex Pietrangelo | 30 | D | $6,500,000 | $7,109,044 |
Sam Reinhart | 24 | F | $3,650,000 | $6,962,665 |
Mathew Barzal | 22 | F | $863,333 | $6,955,859 |
Tyson Barrie | 28 | D | $5,500,000 | $6,867,432 |
Tomas Tatar | 29 | F | $5,300,000 | $6,798,341 |
Torey Krug | 28 | D | $5,250,000 | $6,726,666 |
Mike Hoffman | 30 | F | $5,187,500 | $6,582,317 |
Erik Gustafsson | 27 | D | $1,200,000 | $6,504,229 |
Max Domi | 24 | F | $3,150,000 | $6,408,598 |
Anthony DeAngelo | 24 | D | $925,000 | $6,374,140 |
Pierre-Luc Dubois | 21 | F | $894,166 | $6,371,971 |
Evgenii Dadonov | 30 | F | $4,000,000 | $6,364,079 |
Ryan Pulock | 25 | D | $2,000,000 | $6,361,336 |
Ryan Strome | 26 | F | $3,100,000 | $6,311,601 |
Chris Kreider | 28 | F | $4,625,000 | $6,071,849 |
Kevin Labanc | 24 | F | $1,000,000 | $5,773,652 |
Mikhail Sergachev | 21 | D | $894,166 | $5,766,872 |
Anthony Cirelli | 22 | F | $728,333 | $5,752,071 |
Tyler Bertuzzi | 24 | F | $1,400,000 | $5,734,488 |
Andre Burakovsky | 25 | F | $3,250,000 | $5,673,906 |
Dylan Strome | 22 | F | $863,333 | $5,649,976 |
Tyler Toffoli | 27 | F | $4,600,000 | $5,397,313 |
Chris Tierney | 25 | F | $2,937,500 | $5,382,450 |
Mikael Granlund | 27 | F | $5,750,000 | $5,212,310 |
Connor Brown | 26 | F | $2,100,000 | $5,185,071 |
Jared McCann | 23 | F | $1,250,000 | $5,146,533 |
Anthony Mantha | 25 | F | $3,300,000 | $5,146,377 |
Brandon Montour | 25 | D | $3,387,500 | $5,120,874 |
Anthony Duclair | 24 | F | $1,650,000 | $5,120,129 |
Kevin Shattenkirk | 31 | D | $1,750,000 | $5,093,787 |
Jake DeBrusk | 23 | F | $863,333 | $5,080,681 |
Andreas Athanasiou | 25 | F | $3,000,000 | $5,053,415 |
Taylor Hall | 28 | F | $6,000,000 | $5,000,693 |
Vince Dunn | 23 | D | $722,500 | $4,967,048 |
Dominik Kahun | 24 | F | $925,000 | $4,924,540 |
Jake Muzzin | 30 | D | $4,000,000 | $4,862,690 |
Jack Roslovic | 23 | F | $894,166 | $4,540,138 |
T.J. Brodie | 29 | D | $4,650,400 | $4,533,559 |
Jake Virtanen | 23 | F | $1,250,000 | $4,493,052 |
Craig Smith | 30 | F | $4,250,000 | $4,368,384 |
Vladislav Namestnikov | 27 | F | $4,000,000 | $4,362,930 |
Jordan Greenway | 23 | F | $916,666 | $4,285,550 |
Warren Foegele | 23 | F | $746,667 | $4,270,989 |
Jimmy Vesey | 26 | F | $2,275,000 | $4,269,955 |
Lucas Wallmark | 24 | F | $675,000 | $4,027,755 |
Carl Soderberg | 34 | F | $4,750,000 | $4,020,916 |
Vinnie Hinostroza | 25 | F | $1,500,000 | $4,003,800 |
Nick Cousins | 26 | F | $1,000,000 | $3,972,685 |
Oskar Lindblom | 23 | F | $925,000 | $3,965,740 |
Roope Hintz | 23 | F | $811,667 | $3,953,477 |
Sami Vatanen | 28 | D | $4,875,000 | $3,919,826 |
Dominik Simon | 25 | F | $750,000 | $3,907,516 |
Alex Galchenyuk | 26 | F | $4,900,000 | $3,839,020 |
Jean-Gabriel Pageau | 27 | F | $3,100,000 | $3,797,766 |
Devon Toews | 25 | D | $700,000 | $3,754,855 |
Conor Sheary | 27 | F | $3,000,000 | $3,743,701 |
Mattias Janmark | 27 | F | $2,300,000 | $3,741,317 |
Matt Grzelcyk | 26 | D | $1,400,000 | $3,739,953 |
Radek Faksa | 26 | F | $2,200,000 | $3,670,843 |
Wayne Simmonds | 31 | F | $5,000,000 | $3,541,376 |
Adam Gaudette | 23 | F | $916,666 | $3,479,072 |
Josh Leivo | 26 | F | $1,500,000 | $3,463,728 |
Derick Brassard | 32 | F | $1,200,000 | $3,436,021 |
Jesper Bratt | 21 | F | $749,167 | $3,381,265 |
Rocco Grimaldi | 27 | F | $1,000,000 | $3,340,984 |
Nikita Zadorov | 24 | D | $3,200,000 | $3,306,652 |
Radko Gudas | 29 | D | $3,350,000 | $3,287,155 |
Tyler Ennis | 30 | F | $800,000 | $3,256,461 |
Joel Edmundson | 26 | D | $3,100,000 | $3,233,281 |
Tyson Jost | 21 | F | $885,833 | $3,210,624 |
Jesper Fast | 28 | F | $1,850,000 | $3,157,817 |
Luke Kunin | 22 | F | $925,000 | $3,145,193 |
Valeri Nichushkin | 24 | F | $850,000 | $3,137,023 |
Cody Ceci | 26 | D | $4,500,000 | $3,135,868 |
Brenden Dillon | 29 | D | $3,270,000 | $3,133,261 |
Travis Dermott | 23 | D | $863,333 | $3,095,605 |
Troy Stecher | 25 | D | $2,325,000 | $3,069,972 |
MacKenzie Weegar | 26 | D | $1,600,000 | $3,049,508 |
Andrew Mangiapane | 24 | F | $715,000 | $3,020,469 |
Victor Mete | 21 | D | $748,333 | $2,994,424 |
Mark Jankowski | 25 | F | $1,675,000 | $2,971,906 |
Casey Mittelstadt | 21 | F | $925,000 | $2,968,892 |
Mark Pysyk | 28 | D | $2,733,333 | $2,958,862 |
Joe Thornton | 40 | F | $2,000,000 | $2,948,754 |
Dylan DeMelo | 26 | D | $900,000 | $2,926,489 |
Josh Anderson | 25 | F | $1,850,000 | $2,862,807 |
Chris Tanev | 30 | D | $4,450,000 | $2,831,844 |
Cody Eakin | 28 | F | $3,850,000 | $2,812,535 |
Madison Bowey | 24 | D | $1,000,000 | $2,688,974 |
Kyle Clifford | 29 | F | $1,600,000 | $2,678,433 |
Devin Shore | 25 | F | $2,300,000 | $2,675,410 |
Travis Hamonic | 29 | D | $3,857,143 | $2,640,641 |
Robby Fabbri | 24 | F | $900,000 | $2,594,333 |
Patrick Marleau | 40 | F | $700,000 | $2,551,765 |
Riley Sheahan | 28 | F | $900,000 | $2,551,349 |
Christian Fischer | 22 | F | $821,666 | $2,541,130 |
Mathieu Joseph | 23 | F | $728,333 | $2,494,335 |
Victor Olofsson | 24 | F | $767,500 | $2,446,423 |
Brendan Lemieux | 23 | F | $925,000 | $2,417,067 |
Erik Cernak | 21 | D | $697,500 | $2,408,451 |
Justin Braun | 33 | D | $3,800,000 | $2,348,512 |
Zemgus Girgensons | 26 | F | $1,600,000 | $2,340,919 |
Brendan Leipsic | 25 | F | $700,000 | $2,332,540 |
Nolan Patrick | 21 | F | $925,000 | $2,327,510 |
Chandler Stephenson | 25 | F | $1,050,000 | $2,315,817 |
Mark Borowiecki | 30 | D | $1,200,000 | $2,253,107 |
Johan Larsson | 27 | F | $1,550,000 | $2,246,231 |
Denis Malgin | 23 | F | $750,000 | $2,193,159 |
Drake Caggiula | 25 | F | $1,500,000 | $2,170,854 |
Josh Archibald | 27 | F | $1,000,000 | $2,122,183 |
Ilya Kovalchuk | 36 | F | $700,000 | $2,099,513 |
Derek Grant | 29 | F | $700,000 | $2,092,128 |
Brendan Perlini | 23 | F | $874,125 | $2,082,550 |
Jason Spezza | 36 | F | $700,000 | $2,079,298 |
Michael Frolik | 32 | F | $4,300,000 | $2,077,808 |
Ryan Graves | 24 | D | $735,000 | $2,062,082 |
Oliver Kylington | 22 | D | $730,833 | $1,997,897 |
Marco Scandella | 29 | D | $4,000,000 | $1,933,804 |
Derek Forbort | 27 | D | $2,525,000 | $1,933,584 |
Nikolay Goldobin | 24 | F | $900,000 | $1,925,719 |
Ethan Bear | 22 | D | $720,000 | $1,915,561 |
Tyler Motte | 24 | F | $975,000 | $1,863,654 |
Andy Greene | 37 | D | $5,000,000 | $1,825,816 |
Mikkel Boedker | 30 | F | $4,000,000 | $1,772,807 |
Travis Boyd | 26 | F | $800,000 | $1,763,947 |
Troy Terry | 22 | F | $925,000 | $1,756,816 |
Melker Karlsson | 29 | F | $2,000,000 | $1,754,797 |
Markus Granlund | 26 | F | $1,300,000 | $1,709,596 |
Daniel Sprong | 22 | F | $750,000 | $1,688,443 |
Denis Gurianov | 22 | F | $894,166 | $1,682,964 |
Dominik Kubalík | 24 | F | $925,000 | $1,673,624 |
Philippe Myers | 23 | D | $678,889 | $1,672,149 |
Nick Holden | 32 | D | $2,200,000 | $1,632,071 |
Mike Green | 34 | D | $5,375,000 | $1,616,954 |
Justin Schultz | 29 | D | $5,500,000 | $1,597,474 |
Tage Thompson | 22 | F | $925,000 | $1,588,377 |
Henrik Borgstrom | 22 | F | $925,000 | $1,579,074 |
Pat Maroon | 31 | F | $900,000 | $1,527,216 |
Derrick Pouliot | 26 | D | $700,000 | $1,488,215 |
Michael Del Zotto | 29 | D | $750,000 | $1,475,067 |
Oscar Fantenberg | 28 | D | $850,000 | $1,464,563 |
Robert Hagg | 25 | D | $1,150,000 | $1,451,205 |
Nathan Beaulieu | 27 | D | $1,000,000 | $1,449,538 |
Erik Haula | 28 | F | $2,750,000 | $1,442,057 |
Jacob Larsson | 22 | D | $894,166 | $1,429,665 |
Sean Walker | 25 | D | $745,000 | $1,413,296 |
Matthew Nieto | 27 | F | $1,975,000 | $1,412,020 |
Ron Hainsey | 38 | D | $3,500,000 | $1,315,761 |
Austin Czarnik | 27 | F | $1,250,000 | $1,288,837 |
Sami Niku | 23 | D | $775,000 | $1,283,201 |
Anders Bjork | 23 | F | $925,000 | $1,273,643 |
Mason Appleton | 24 | F | $741,667 | $1,263,807 |
Justin Williams | 38 | F | $700,000 | $1,221,605 |
Matthew Benning | 25 | D | $1,900,000 | $1,215,634 |
Colin Wilson | 30 | F | $2,600,000 | $1,207,857 |
Mikko Koivu | 36 | F | $5,500,000 | $1,086,132 |
Pontus Aberg | 26 | F | $700,000 | $1,053,931 |
Sammy Blais | 23 | F | $850,000 | $1,032,448 |
John Hayden | 25 | F | $750,000 | $1,029,587 |
Jayce Hawryluk | 24 | F | $874,125 | $945,391 |
Haydn Fleury | 23 | D | $850,000 | $940,903 |
Joakim Nordstrom | 27 | F | $1,000,000 | $930,912 |
Mirco Mueller | 24 | D | $1,400,000 | $902,117 |
Zdeno Chara | 42 | D | $2,000,000 | $821,429 |
Lawrence Pilut | 24 | D | $925,000 | $821,408 |
Ryan Reaves | 33 | F | $2,775,000 | $741,059 |
Gustav Forsling | 23 | D | $874,125 | $700,000 |
Zach Bogosian | 29 | D | $5,142,857 | $700,000 |
Dmitry Kulikov | 29 | D | $4,333,333 | $700,000 |
Jonathan Ericsson | 35 | D | $4,250,000 | $700,000 |
Vladimir Sobotka | 32 | F | $3,500,000 | $700,000 |
Trevor Daley | 36 | D | $3,166,666 | $700,000 |
Sam Gagner | 30 | F | $3,150,000 | $700,000 |
Matt Martin | 30 | F | $2,500,000 | $700,000 |
Dale Weise | 31 | F | $2,350,000 | $700,000 |
Trevor van Riemsdyk | 28 | D | $2,300,000 | $700,000 |
Trevor Lewis | 33 | F | $2,000,000 | $700,000 |
Tim Schaller | 29 | F | $1,900,000 | $700,000 |
Roman Polak | 33 | D | $1,750,000 | $700,000 |
Corey Perry | 34 | F | $1,500,000 | $700,000 |
Andrej Sekera | 33 | D | $1,500,000 | $700,000 |
Mark Barberio | 29 | D | $1,450,000 | $700,000 |
Kevin Connauton | 29 | D | $1,375,000 | $700,000 |
Jonathon Merrill | 28 | F | $1,375,000 | $700,000 |
Matthew Peca | 26 | F | $1,300,000 | $700,000 |
Christian Djoos | 25 | D | $1,250,000 | $700,000 |
Brad Richardson | 35 | F | $1,250,000 | $700,000 |
Adam Erne | 24 | F | $1,050,000 | $700,000 |
Scott Wilson | 27 | F | $1,050,000 | $700,000 |
Tyler Pitlick | 28 | F | $1,000,000 | $700,000 |
Brett Ritchie | 26 | F | $1,000,000 | $700,000 |
Joel Persson | 25 | D | $1,000,000 | $700,000 |
Nate Thompson | 35 | F | $1,000,000 | $700,000 |
Tomas Nosek | 27 | F | $1,000,000 | $700,000 |
Tim Heed | 29 | D | $960,000 | $700,000 |
Brian Boyle | 35 | F | $940,000 | $700,000 |
Carl Grundstrom | 22 | F | $925,000 | $700,000 |
Taro Hirose | 23 | F | $925,000 | $700,000 |
Ilya Mikheyev | 25 | F | $925,000 | $700,000 |
Nikolai Prokhorkin | 26 | F | $925,000 | $700,000 |
Vladislav Gavrikov | 24 | D | $925,000 | $700,000 |
Slater Koekkoek | 26 | D | $925,000 | $700,000 |
Max Veronneau | 24 | F | $925,000 | $700,000 |
Oliwer Kaski | 24 | D | $925,000 | $700,000 |
Gaetan Haas | 28 | F | $925,000 | $700,000 |
Anton Wedin | 26 | F | $925,000 | $700,000 |
Ryan Kuffner | 23 | F | $925,000 | $700,000 |
Kiefer Sherwood | 24 | F | $925,000 | $700,000 |
Jonathan Dahlen | 22 | F | $925,000 | $700,000 |
Jacob De La Rose | 24 | F | $900,000 | $700,000 |
Sonny Milano | 23 | F | $874,125 | $700,000 |
Joshua Ho-Sang | 24 | F | $874,125 | $700,000 |
Nico Sturm | 24 | F | $874,125 | $700,000 |
Sheldon Rempal | 24 | F | $874,125 | $700,000 |
Kevin Stenlund | 23 | F | $864,166 | $700,000 |
Evgeny Svechnikov | 23 | F | $863,333 | $700,000 |
Nick Merkley | 22 | F | $863,333 | $700,000 |
Zach Senyshyn | 22 | F | $863,333 | $700,000 |
Juuso Riikola | 26 | D | $850,000 | $700,000 |
Kevin Roy | 26 | F | $850,000 | $700,000 |
Tom Kuhnhackl | 28 | F | $850,000 | $700,000 |
Jimmy Schuldt | 24 | D | $850,000 | $700,000 |
Korbinian Holzer | 32 | D | $850,000 | $700,000 |
Jani Hakanpaa | 27 | D | $850,000 | $700,000 |
Alex Biega | 31 | D | $825,000 | $700,000 |
Paul Ladue | 27 | D | $825,000 | $700,000 |
Charles Hudon | 18 | D | $800,000 | $700,000 |
Christian Folin | 29 | D | $800,000 | $700,000 |
Jordan Szwarz | 28 | F | $800,000 | $700,000 |
Dalton Prout | 29 | D | $800,000 | $700,000 |
Jakob Lilja | 26 | F | $792,500 | $700,000 |
Sebastian Aho (d) | 24 | F | $770,000 | $700,000 |
Sam Lafferty | 24 | F | $767,500 | $700,000 |
Rudolfs Balcers | 22 | F | $759,167 | $700,000 |
Austin Wagner | 22 | F | $759,167 | $700,000 |
Christoffer Ehn | 23 | F | $759,167 | $700,000 |
Jayden Halbgewachs | 22 | F | $759,166 | $700,000 |
Brett Seney | 23 | F | $757,500 | $700,000 |
Christian Jaros | 23 | D | $755,000 | $700,000 |
Chris Stewart | 32 | F | $753,757 | $700,000 |
Aleksi Saarela | 23 | F | $753,333 | $700,000 |
Vladislav Kamenev | 23 | F | $750,000 | $700,000 |
Karson Kuhlman | 24 | F | $750,000 | $700,000 |
Mackenzie MacEachern | 25 | F | $750,000 | $700,000 |
Markus Hannikainen | 26 | F | $750,000 | $700,000 |
Carson Soucy | 25 | D | $750,000 | $700,000 |
Miikka Salomaki | 26 | F | $750,000 | $700,000 |
Luca Sbisa | 30 | D | $750,000 | $700,000 |
Nick Shore | 27 | F | $750,000 | $700,000 |
Tomas Jurco | 27 | F | $750,000 | $700,000 |
Troy Brouwer | 34 | F | $750,000 | $700,000 |
Kyle Capobianco | 22 | F | $745,000 | $700,000 |
Sheldon Dries | 25 | F | $735,000 | $700,000 |
Alan Quine | 26 | F | $735,000 | $700,000 |
Jacob Middleton | 24 | D | $735,000 | $700,000 |
A.J. Greer | 23 | F | $735,000 | $700,000 |
Filip Chlapik | 22 | F | $728,333 | $700,000 |
William Carrier | 25 | F | $725,000 | $700,000 |
Brian Gibbons | 31 | F | $725,000 | $700,000 |
Joakim Ryan | 26 | D | $725,000 | $700,000 |
Connor Clifton | 24 | D | $725,000 | $700,000 |
Garrett Wilson | 28 | F | $725,000 | $700,000 |
Joel L’Esperance | 24 | F | $722,500 | $700,000 |
Greg McKegg | 27 | F | $715,000 | $700,000 |
Dryden Hunt | 24 | F | $715,000 | $700,000 |
Jonas Siegenthaler | 22 | F | $714,166 | $700,000 |
Peter Cehlarik | 24 | F | $700,000 | $700,000 |
Stefan Noesen | 27 | F | $700,000 | $700,000 |
Deryk Engelland | 37 | D | $700,000 | $700,000 |
Louie Belpedio | 23 | D | $700,000 | $700,000 |
Kevin Rooney | 26 | F | $700,000 | $700,000 |
Boo Nieves | 26 | F | $700,000 | $700,000 |
Daniel Carr | 28 | F | $700,000 | $700,000 |
Anthony Bitetto | 29 | D | $700,000 | $700,000 |
Curtis Lazar | 25 | F | $700,000 | $700,000 |
Patrick Russell | 27 | F | $700,000 | $700,000 |
Carter Verhaeghe | 24 | F | $700,000 | $700,000 |
Gabriel Bourque | 29 | F | $700,000 | $700,000 |
Joseph Blandisi | 25 | F | $700,000 | $700,000 |
Lukas Radil | 29 | F | $700,000 | $700,000 |
Mark Letestu | 35 | F | $700,000 | $700,000 |
Scott Sabourin | 27 | F | $700,000 | $700,000 |
Micheal Haley | 33 | F | $700,000 | $700,000 |
Ian McCoshen | 24 | D | $700,000 | $700,000 |
Sam Carrick | 28 | F | $700,000 | $700,000 |
Jordan Schmaltz | 26 | D | $700,000 | $700,000 |
Jonny Brodzinski | 26 | F | $700,000 | $700,000 |
Clark Bishop | 23 | F | $700,000 | $700,000 |
Trevor Carrick | 25 | D | $700,000 | $700,000 |
Brendan Guhle | 22 | D | $697,500 | $700,000 |
Dmytro Timashov | 23 | F | $694,444 | $700,000 |
J.T. Brown | 29 | F | $687,500 | $700,000 |
Matt Luff | 22 | F | $677,777 | $700,000 |
Valentin Zykov | 24 | F | $675,000 | $700,000 |
Frederik Gauthier | 24 | F | $675,000 | $700,000 |
Yannick Weber | 31 | D | $675,000 | $700,000 |
Josh Brown | 26 | D | $675,000 | $700,000 |
Tyler Lewington | 25 | D | $675,000 | $700,000 |
Colby Cave | 25 | F | $675,000 | $700,000 |
Frederick Gaudreau | 26 | F | $666,666 | $700,000 |