Ramblings: Slew of Avalanche updates; Tuch setback; COVID-19; primary point producers – March 12

Michael Clifford

2020-03-12

Andre Burakovsky, Matt Calvert, Nazem Kadri, and Philip Grubauer were all skating before Colorado's practice on Wednesday. That's a good sign, but it's obvious there's still a little ways to go before that quartet returns to action. Nathan MacKinnon was not skating with the team, either before or during practice, and is expected to miss 1-2 weeks, but Mikko Rantanen did in a non-contact jersey. (It should be said that Kadri was in a non-contact jersey as well.)

Martin Kaut has been recalled.

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Jeff Skinner was still on the top line for the Sabres at practice on Wednesday, which means we get at least one more game of Top Line Skinner. Would have been nice to have about 70 of these, but I guess having him in time for H2H playoffs is better than nothing.

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The NHL has decided that it will keep playing in front of their usual audiences in the face of COVID-19. Columbus GM Jarmo Kekalainen said this was decided as a league. About 20 minutes after that announcement, the Washington D.C. Department of Health sent out a recommendation of postponing all gathering of 1000 people or more. What this means for the Capitals is uncertain. Later in the day, Columbus said they wouldn't be allowing fans at their game on Thursday night, in anticipation of the state Governor banning mass gatherings.

Scouts from some teams have already been grounded and told not to leave their respective countries. The World Health Organization officially labelled the COVID-19 outbreak as a pandemic. What that could mean for the NHL is clarified by Frank Seravalli of TSN here.

The San Jose Sharks said they will play their remaining home games with empty arenas.

This situation is developing by the hour.

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Following a setback that kept Alex Tuch from returning to the lineup on Monday night, as was previously hoped, he was not skating at practice on Wednesday. This is a situation that seems to be changing daily, but if I were a Tuch owner, I would not expect much from him for the balance of the season.

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One thing I always look to look at through the year is primary points/60 minutes at 5-on-5. It just helps to take some of the noise out of point production, given that we know secondary assists are largely random. Yes, elite guys like Nikita Kucherov can put up a lot of second assists every year, mostly because they're elite players on the ice for a lot of goals every year. Most players don't fall into that specific category.

Over the last two seasons, here are the top-20 (and ties) by primary points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (minimum 1800 minutes, forwards only, from Natural Stat Trick):

 

 

Let's talk about a few of those elite names.

 

Artemi Panarin

If you asked 100 hockey fans to name the player with the highest rate of primary points/60 minutes at 5-on-5 over the last two years, how many people would say Panarin as their first choice? I would be pretty stunned if the number was more than "one".

I'm not going to feed a fed horse on the Kane/Panarin arguments from a few years ago, but more to make the point what a difference-maker he is in general, and has been for the Rangers this year. Yes, it's a big, long contract, but it seems pretty obvious he'll be a cornerstone for this team for the next few years, and that's good news for a roster that has loads of talent already and more on the way.

 

John Tavares

Sometimes I see Leafs fans complaining about Tavares on Twitter, and that's probably just due to the sheer volume of Leafs fans relative to fans of other teams. Regardless, I wonder if we told them that he's been only marginally less productive than Nathan MacKinnon what they might think.

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As a Maple Leaf, Tavares has 73 goals and 148 points in 145 games. He's done that with a shot rate well over three per game in both seasons. There might be some peripheral issues because he doesn't hit a lot or take a lot of penalties, and that's a worry for fantasy owners, but he's been real good in real life.

I'm interested to see where he goes in drafts next year. He was a slam-dunk second-round pick this year and may have even gone at the end of first rounds. As of right now, he sits with 26 goals on the year (he's missed a handful of games). Let's say he finishes with 30, a decline of 17 goals from the season prior. Does he remain a second-round pick or drop to the third? Hope it's the latter because I'll be a buyer.

 

Now, let's talk about a couple of the non-elite players.

 

Jakub Vrana

Anyone who has read my stuff for four or five years now knows how much I fell in love with his skill set when he got to the AHL. It took some time for him to find his footing, but he had a breakout year last year and he's just gotten better this year; he's already surpassed last year's goal and assist totals.

The thing is, even with the additional PP1 ice time he's earned this year, it's still led to a deflated point total. Over his first three years, Vrana scored five goals on 24 shots on the power play in about 180 minutes of play. This year, he's scored one PP goal on 25 shots in 133 minutes of play. We add four PP goals to his current total, and he's knocking on the door of 30 goals while playing fewer than 15 minutes a night. That is absurdly efficient production.

I have high hopes for Vrana next year. There's no reason why he shouldn't be on the top PP unit and playing 17 minutes a night, and that would put 30 goals and 70 points well within reach. He's a very, very good young player just on the cusp of showing what he can do.

 

Brendan Gallagher

It's not really that surprising to see Gallagher on this list because he's long been very productive at 5-on-5 on a per-minute basis. It should speak to his upside if he got the 20-minute, top-line, top-PP treatment similar to players like Guentzel, Kane, and Huberdeau.

But when I think of Gallagher's game, I wonder if he's able to play 20 minutes a night. He's a guy that is very physical and digs hard every shift. Can he do that 20 minutes a night? Maybe he can, maybe he can't. I think that type of game is much harder to maintain for 20 minutes a night than someone who is a pure playmaker, for example.

To that end, though, it doesn't explain his (relatively) low raw totals. What does that is his PP production. For his career, he has two seasons with at least 10 PP points, one season with at least 15, and none with 20. This is his seventh full season in the NHL. Whether it's his skill set that doesn't mesh on the power play, the general lack of talent on the team for his tenure, or coaching systems (I submit it's likely a mix of all three), it seems that it'll be impossible for him to really reach his fantasy upside.

 

Timo Meier

Marks of 25 goals and 50 points are both well within reach for Meier, and he's already passed 150 hits and will crack 200 shots. It really hasn't been a bad year for him, but like many Sharks, given how their season has gone, he's not performed to expectations.

Like Gallagher, and like Vrana, a big problem here is PP production. There's a chance he ends up with fewer PP points this year (currently eight) than he had last year (10), which was his breakout season. He's fifth among their forwards this year (Hertl included) in PPTOI per game, so it's obvious there's no real focus on getting him as much PP time as they can. It's fair to wonder how many minutes he'd have if the team was healthy all year, too. A good power play with reasonable power-play minutes gets him to the 60-point mark this year.

There is still a lot of talent on the roster even if they're getting a bit older. He should be given all the minutes he can handle in 2020-21, and I'll be a buyer at the draft table. Keep in mind, that even in a down year this year, he's the 118th player in standard Yahoo! leagues, meaning even in a down year, he's been a 10th-round value. Not great, but it shows how his peripherals like shots and hits can help mitigate the lack of production (as opposed to, say, someone like Phil Kessel).

 

I'm going to write more on players further down the list tomorrow.

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12.7 JOE VELENO MARCO KASPER JONATAN BERGGREN
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