Fantasy Mailbag: Kane vs. Marchand, Veleno, Kubalik, Kaprizov, Konecny, & Burns
Rick Roos
2020-04-01
I thought about adding a fake question for April Fools Day to help provide a momentary escape from the sober reality we're all currently facing, but figured it would be in poor form. So instead I'll stick to what you came here for – information via answers to questions while providing advice that should be useful to poolies even if they don't own the specific players being discussed.
As a reminder, if you want your fantasy hockey question answered in the next mailbag, be sure to check out the end of the column, where I explain the ways to get it to me. The earlier you send a question the more likely it is to be included, and the deeper dive I can provide with my reply.
Question #1 (from Chad)
I’m in a league that starts 2C, 2LW, 2RW, 4D, 3 UTIL, 1G, and there are 5 bench spots. Each team had been able to keep four skaters and one goalie, but next season the number of skaters which can be kept climbs to five, and then in 2021 it'll be six. The categories are: for skaters (G, A, +/-, PPP, SHP, GWG, SOG, HIT, BLK); for goalies (W, L, GA, GAA, SV, SHO).
I entered this season with my four skater keepers being Connor McDavid, Auston Matthews, Nathan MacKinnon, and Brady Tkachuk. I also had lots of early draft picks because of a bad goalie situation last year setting me up to tank and load up on picks.
Right now my roster, in addition to McDavid, Matthews, MacKinnon, and Tkachuk, looks like this:
Charlie Coyle, Bryan Rust, Ondrej Palat, Dominik Kubalik, Brandon Tanev, Jaccob Slavin, Miro Heiskanen, Ryan Ellis, Scott Mayfield, Roope Hintz, Claude Giroux, Casey Cizikas, Brock Boeser, Cale Makar, Juuse Saros, Joonas Korpisalo, David Rittich, Ilya Samsonov, Elvis Merzlikins.
What do you think it will take for this team to win a championship?
This is a tough one, because in leagues with a keeper to roster ratio that is small, you could have a superb core of keepers but still not win because so much of the roster is comprised of draft picks. In your case, you had five keepers but 24 roster spots and 14 in your starting line-up. And although you didn't list the total number of teams in the league, I'm guessing it's at least 12 and perhaps 14 or 16 in view of some of the players (Coyle, Tanev, Cizikas) whom you owned.
First things first, you have to decide your last skater keeper, as I think the same four make the cut again. To me, the choice boils down to Makar or Heiskanen. Makar slowed a bit after an insane start, but he's on a potent team and is their unquestioned top option for blueline offense. As for Heiskanen, he has #1 defenseman written all over him; and he's scoring well despite his young age and the presence of John Klingberg. Still, Heiskanen is less outstanding in multi-cats and plays for a team with an ageing forward corps and which could struggle to score. I think Makar is the keep over Heiskanen.
The next thing to examine is whether you have any skater assets you can trade to other teams. If it's a 12-16 team league you might be able to find a taker for Heiskanen, plus perhaps Giroux despite his down year, or Boeser due to his great play before getting hurt. The issue you'll face, however, is I'm guessing most other teams will have more keepable players than keepable spots, so there might not be a market for your guys, or, if you can trade them, you'll perhaps get a poor return. Still, something would be better than nothing, so do try to make some trades.
Lastly, we turn to your goalie situation. If this was back in February, I'd say things were murky; however, with his play in the weeks before the season pressing pause, Saros had looked superb. Between that and the truly dreadful play of Pekka Rinne, I like Saros as your goalie keep. Yes, that would mean not keeping Samsonov, who likewise could step into the role of a #1 next season; but I think Saros gets the edge over him because Samsonov looked shaky since the calendar flipped to 2020 and a lot of his best games this season were against lousy or low scoring teams.
But no matter what you do, you won't be able to win this league until/unless you find a way to win your draft. To be frank, for a squad that had lots of top picks you didn't seem to end up with great players. Of course, without knowing how many teams are in this league, which players were drafted where not to mention the picks of other teams, I can't diagnose where you might have gone wrong. Still, though, my advice is to look back, with the benefit of hindsight, and see where you may have reached or picked players from the wrong tier. Yes, that won't replicate draft conditions; but the only way one improves is by finding fixable faults. Far too many poolies just accept defeat and then move on, when what should be done is analyze and dissect, especially in the case of your draft, since that forms the cornerstone of teams in your league. Do that, and I think you'll have better results next season. Good luck!
Question #2 (from Michael)
I'm in an 11 team standard multi-cat auction league where each team keeps eight with an annual tax of $3-5 that is reflected as a higher keeper cost. I'm having trouble finalizing whom I should keep for 2020-21. After a disappointing 2019-20, I turned a $30 Patrick Kane into a $12 Elias Pettersson and a $30 Kuznetsov (with a MacKenzie Blackwood toss in) into a $5 Jakub Vrana.
In addition to those two, my potential keepers, with their "pre-tax" costs shown in parentheses, are Aleksander Barkov ($29), Johnny Gaudreau ($19), Jack Hughes ($8), Mikko Rantanen ($8), Brady Thachuk ($2), Kevin Fiala ($1), Travis Konecny ($1), Clayton Keller ($1), Matt Dumba ($8), Adam Fox ($8), Shea Theodore ($1), Chad Hart ($4).
My definite keepers, at least in my mind, are Hart, Pettersson, Rantanen, and Tkachuk. I plan on letting Barkov go given all of the value I have elsewhere. I feel like Hughes and Keller haven’t done enough, so they’re likely to be tossed back into the draft pool. I may be letting Gaudreau go as well, out of concern that he might not be as great as he seemed.
I need help when it comes to Fiala, Konecny, and Vrana. Are all of them for real enough to supplant Johnny Hockey? What about my defensemen – do have I no room to keep any of them or do I go with just forwards as skaters? Long story short, what is your list of eight keepers for this team? And also, are there any deals I could make?
I'm on board with the four keepers you named. All provide the right price/performance ratio that you want in an auction league. I also think Fiala, Konecny and Vrana are great value guys and, indeed, are "for real" enough to retain.
No question Fiala has officially arrived, in this his "magical" fourth year. He was driving offense on a team many feared would have a lot of difficulty putting pucks in the net. Or to put it another way, you don't play as well as he did, for as long of a stretch as he did, on a team like his, and then just regress. And he still has room to see his ice time improve. At $1 before added keeper tax, he's a steal.
The same largely holds true for Konecny. In this, also his "magical" fourth year, Konecny morphed from a good young player who was slotted mostly within the middle six, to genuine top tier talent. The major key was he landed a spot on PP1, where he has thrived. And as was noted in a recent ramblings, by scoring 24+ goals in three of his first four seasons by age 22 he put himself in some fine company, what with the others who've likewise done so since 2000-01 being Sebastian Aho, Sidney Crosby, Jack Eichel, Ilya Kovalchuk, Patrik Laine, Auston Matthews, John Tavares, Nathan Horton, Patrick Kane, Anze Kopitar, Evgeni Malkin. Connor McDavid, Sean Monahan, Rick Nash, Alex Ovechkin, and Steven Stamkos. All that, and he too still has room to see his ice time, as well as SOG rate, realistically improve. He's a must keep.
As for Vrana, he had cooled a tad in Q4; however, he's well worth the risk as a keep, since not only did you give up a lot of value to trade for him, but each season he's taken an important step and not looked back. Last year it was to stake out a permanent spot in the top six; and despite the depth of the Caps, he did so, finishing with 26 points in his last 41 games. This season he needed to taste the rarified air that is the Caps' PP1, and not only did he do just that, but he posted a solid 12 PPPts along the way. And on top of all that, his goals per 60 minutes rate this season ranks him in the top five among all NHLers over the past five seasons. All that's left is for him to get even more ice time, which, based on his ability to meet and succeed in his past challenges, is something I'm banking on him doing. When the dust settles on 2020-21, he should be at or near what Fiala and Konecny produce.
Okay, so if you're retaining them, plus the four you mentioned, that leaves one final keeper. For that spot, I think it boils down to either Gaudreau or Keller or Dumba or Theodore. Ideally, you'd indeed want to keep a d-man, as the rest of your skater keepers are all forwards; however, that should not in and of itself require you to do so, as in auction leagues you have the benefit of being able to take any player. So if you're not keeping rearguards and others are, there should be less competition for available d-men. That being said, your fellow league members might sense your dilemma and bid up key defensemen, leaving you in a bind.
Complicating matters is that both Keller and Gaudreau had down years and don't shine in multi-cat leagues, whereas Dumba, although he had an even worse season than both of them, is a multi-cat beast. Then there's Theodore, who's the least proven of the four but looks to be on an upward trajectory, and is the cheapest of the bunch.
To me, it comes down to Gaudreau, who should be the pick if this year was just a blip in the radar, or Theodore if he's truly arrived. In auction leagues, when in doubt I tend to go with the cheaper option, leaving me more money to spend. Plus, while Gaudreau's shooting percentage is unsustainably low, his IPP is trending down for the third straight season and his OZ% is largely unchanged. In other words, I'm not seeing enough signs that his poor output is something he can completely reverse. As such, give me Theodore for your last spot, landing you a d-man keeper and giving you oodles of cash to spend at the auction, or, if you want, several cheap players to trade in order to receive other guys like Pettersson or Rantanen, who are more proven and not too expensive. I'd also try to move Barkov as if Kuznetsov and Kane were tradable at their cost, then Barkov should be as well. And give a shot to moving Hughes and Keller – it can't hurt. Good luck!
Question #3 (from Boyd)
I'm in a 12 team, keep three league with 19 player rosters where each team starts 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 3D, 2G, plus has three Bench slots. Categories are: G (4), A (3), +/- (0.15), PIM (0.2), PPPt (1), SOG (0.3), Hit (0.3), Block (0.3); Win (5), GA (-1.1), Svs (0.23), SO (3).
Which players would you keep (their Yahoo rank – as of when I sent the question – is in parentheses), and what return in trade would you expect for those whom you opted not to keep? Alex Ovechkin (6), Jack Eichel (9), Max Pacioretty (11), John Carlson (13), J.T. Miller (15), Andrei Vasilevskiy (19), Mika Zibanejad (20), John Tavares (43). Note that I don’t have 1st, 3rd, 4th, 8th, or 13th round picks for next year, so I am hoping to be able to trade one or more players to get back some picks.
My ranking of the players is Eichel, Ovi, Vas, Zibs, Carlson, Tavares, Miller, Pacioretty. I’m hesitant to keep a goalie, especially with Zibanejad playing like a superstar. I have kicked the tires on a few other owners and have tentative offers of Zibenejad and my 7th for his 2nd and 4th. I also have a 2nd round pick offered for Vasilevskiy.
Who are you keeping, and what deals would you try to make?
As with question #1, making offseason trades in a league where so few players are kept can be a very difficult task. In your case, however, although only 36 players are being retained in your league, you have more than a half-dozen players within the 36. What does that mean? There should be at least a couple of teams who could benefit more from one of your non-keeps than by those players they could retain themselves, as underscored by you having two tentative deals in place.
Before we get to deals, let's figure out your keepers. You said you're hesitant to keep a goalie; however, netminder categories count for a third of your scoring and you need to start two. Oh, and you have the most valuable goalie in fantasy hockey The fact that another team wants to trade for him should only serve to reinforce his value. Collectively, these factors make Vasilevskiy a must keep from where I sit. I also agree on Ovi being in your top three, as until he starts to show signs of slowing down he's someone you simply cannot toss back into the draft pool in a league with your categories.
Your third keeper is where it gets tough. I think it boils down to Eichel, Carlson or Zibanejad, as Miller is very good but a notch below the others and Patches probably will have a difficult time at his age ever again coming close to his numbers from this season. In Carlson, you get a defenseman who not only has elite talent but also is deployed for more than four minutes per game on a potent PP. And although his hitting and, especially, his blocks have taken a back seat to his scoring, he's still a decent producer in those areas. Eichel has looked like all the dots have started to connect, yet is still limited somewhat in that the team around him is not very good and he's yet to show he can carry a squad on his shoulders and score at a 100 point pace. Zibs, on the other hand, has arrived in a big way. Yes, his goal total is unsustainably high; but he's a beast at even strength and on the PP, and he has so few secondary assists despite being a center, demonstrating he's a true offensive force, not just a playmaker who relies on others to help pad his points total.
To me, it boils down to Zibs and Carlson, and I like keeping Zibs because I think he's superb but also due to the likelihood that – even though you don't have a standing offer for him like you do with Zibs – you could find someone to take Carlson in trade. If anything, and like Vas, the fact that you don't just have an offer for Zibs, but a pretty good one, only serves to reinforce his value as a keeper.
So in sum, keep Ovi, Vas, and Zibs. Try to trade everyone else, but especially Eichel, who's a big name, and Carlson, who'll be coming off a huge year. Even in a 12 team keep 3 league I think you should be able to find landing spots for both, getting – I assume – draft picks in return, which should help your team and its already solid core. Good luck!
Question #4 (from Michael)
Lifetime Keeper League. 18 Skaters, 3 Goalies. G/A = 1pt each.
I’ve got a pretty young team, but two players I’m really curious about are Dominik Kubalik and Kirill Kaprizov. Kubalik was a great waiver pickup for me and I’ve stashed Kap on my main roster for 3 years in hopes that he comes to the US. Essentially, do you see Kubalik as a legit top-six player in the future and do you truly believe Kaprizov is everything people have said (and maybe more)?
Starting with Kubalik, I think he's done enough to keep himself in the top six for Chicago for 2020-21. Whether he can stay there, the odds seem to be in his favor but you never can be sure. What we do know is with 30 markers for 2019-20 he's potted more goals per game than any age 24+ rookie – who appeared in 50+ games – in over 30 years, although for what it's worth only one player in the top 20 went on to substantial success and several were out of the NHL within a few years of the feat.
Adding to the concern is Kubalik did this while scoring on just under 20% of his SOG; however, he also only had six secondary assists, meaning fewer than 13% of his points came via that route. Not only does that provide reassurance that a drop in shooting percentage would be accompanied by more secondary assists, but of all the forwards who had 45+ points and a secondary assists percentage rate of 20% or less when the season pushed pause, it includes a list of some of the league's best young players (David Pastrnak, Mathew Barzal, Kyle Connor, William Nylander, Elias Pettersson, Sebastian Aho, Auston Matthews, and Brayden Point) as well as some of the NHL's elite, like Alex Ovechkin and Patrick Kane. In other words, this is a fine company.
Also, rather than showing signs of hitting a rookie wall, Kubalik improved with each quarter, both in terms of goal rate and points per game. And sure enough, his ice time climbed as well, such that by the time the season stalled he was on PP1 and getting nearly 17:00 per game. Is that enough to lock him into the top six? If not lock him in, then at least get a long, long look. Hopefully, though he will do better than the rest of the forwards who had great rookie goal outputs only to quickly fall from fantasy grace.
As for Kaprizov, I think the hype is real, and I'd liken him to Igor Shesterkin in terms of the anticipation likely being worth the wait. His 51 then 62 points as a 21 and 22-year-old in the KHL seemingly more than amply demonstrate he has the skill set to compete with "the big boys." After all, if we look at the last two NHLers who debuted at age 22-25 following 80+ points in their last two full KHL seasons, we get Artemi Panarin and Evgeni Kuznetsov, which is quite the impressive duo.
Let's also not forget that Kaprizov is property of the Minnesota Wild, where he should be able to step right into a top-six role. Yes, he won't have superb talent surrounding him; however, in the weeks prior to the season halting – and after their coaching change – the Wild were playing some very good hockey. Minnesota might be the best landing spot for him, as the team isn't terrible nor is it great, leaving room for him to step in and shine but not having the pressure and spotlight on him that he would elsewhere. Could much of the same thing have been said about Nikita Gusev before he came? Yes, but Gusev was much older when first taking the NHL ice. If, as expected, Kaprizov makes it here within the next year or two, he'll still be young enough to adapt well to the NHL game, unlike Gusev, who looked like a fish out of water for much of the year. But let's also not forget that after a lackluster start Gusev was playing superb hockey as the season halted, so there's that to point to for encouragement.
Long story short, if you have Kubalik and Kaprizov in your dynasty, you're well set up well for the future, depending on how much stock you put in past precedent, which is not great for Kubalik but superb for Kaprizov. Good luck!
Question #5 (from Travis)
I'm in a 12 Team H2H Keep 4 league. Positions are 2C, 2LW, 2RW, 3D, 1UTIl, 2G, 4BENCH, Categories are G, A, +/-, PIMs, PPPs, SHPs, SOG, FOWs, Hits, Blocks; Wins, GAA, SV%, Shutouts. My roster consists of: Forwards (Artemi Panarin, Jonathan Huberdeau, Mark Scheifele, Jamie Benn, Brock Nelson, Ryan Strome, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Tomas Tatar, David Perron); Defensemen (Brent Burns, Darnell Nurse, Jeff Petry, Mikael Sergachev); Goalies (Marc-Andre Fleury, Tristan Jarry, Anton Khudobin).
My question is, which 4 do I keep? Most in my league keep 1 Goalie, 1 Defense, and 2 Forwards, and by the first couple rounds, all the good Goalies are gone. But with all the talk about Goalies being bad to draft early, do I still keep MAF, who was a keeper for the last 2 seasons, but seems to be declining, or pick someone else? I've also kept Burns, Panarin, and Scheifele before, but was thinking of keeping Huberdeau over Burns this time since Burns seems to be declining as well? What do you think?
You're likely not alone in terms of wrestling whether it is worthwhile in this day and age to keep a goalie in a league where there are not a lot of keeper slots. If, as you claim, each team indeed keeps a goalie, that would mean up to 11 are off the board come draft day. As of now, the 11th best goalie in wins has 24, which is only 7 less than the second-best goalie, but also only seven more than the 29th best goalie. It's a similar situation with GAA, where 11th best among goalies with 30 starts is 2.57, versus 2.22 for the second-ranked netminder and 2.79 for the 27th best, and for SV%, where 11th best is .918 versus .923 for the third-best and .909 for the 27th.
Clearly, the stats gap that exists between the "tier 1" goalie goalies and those in the second and third-tier is eroding, which cuts against keeping MAF. That having been said, goalie stats comprise 28% of your categories, so that would seem to suggest you should keep a goalie in one of your four slots.
The question thus boils down to whether MAF is better for you than what you'd keep as your fourth skater. Clearly, Panarin is a keep. Huberdeau was on his way to a second consecutive 90+ point season, lending legitimacy to him being the real deal at that level and, to me, making him a must keep. As for Scheifele, at this point, he is what he is, which is an 80-85 point player with so-so multi-cat stats. Then there's Burns, whose points – overall and on the PP – and SOG cratered this season. He still is a very good stat stuffer though and could bounce back. After all, this is a guy who had three 70+ point seasons from age 30-34, and only three other d-men have done that in the history of the NHL: Ray Bourque, Paul Coffey, and Larry Murphy. How did they fare at age 36, which is how old Burns will be next season, and onward? None ever hit 60 points again, even Bourque, who had 82 points at age 35. So if you opt to keep Burns, I'd probably count on him to give you similar production next season.
As for Fleury, he had two 35+ win seasons from age 30-34. That's a feat which eight other goalies have done in the modern era. Of those, just a trio had at least three more seasons of 50+ starts, with each having at least one more 30+ win season and two of the three having two such seasons. So while we cannot be certain whether Fleury will receive 50+ starts again, if he does then past precedent suggests he should be able to step up to the plate and be a solid goalie.
So which two does it make the most sense to keep among Burns, MAF, and Scheifele? Clearly, Scheifele is the least risky, but he also has the least upside. Past results suggest that what we're seeing from Burns is about the best we'll get from him going forward, whereas Fleury could still be a productive netminder for a couple more seasons. If indeed you're intent on keeping a goalie, I think Fleury is likely safe enough to retain. For the last spot, go with Scheifele if you want to know what you'll be getting. Or go with Burns if you can accept his downside of 50-60 points with the off chance that somehow he defies past results and bounces back. Good Luck!
Question #6 (from Dave)
I cannot find out much about the 2023 draft. I am in a 12 team keeper league that has been running for…..37 years! I am wondering if the 2023 draft is projected to be a strong one, as I've been offered a first-round pick for Joe Veleno. Would you do the deal?
First off, any pundits offering definitive projections for the 2023 draft are kidding themselves. Sure, there might be a few 2023-eligible youngsters about whom scouts are already gushing; however, a lot can and will happen between now and then. Still though, when the time comes, a first-round pick will be valuable, even if it's not a loaded draft.
Is it worth parting with Veleno though? The word on him is he's got NHL upside but might not be a top-line player. Yes, he dominated in his last QMJHL season; but he failed to reach even a point per every other game in his first AHL campaign. He also looks to have the makings of a more of a two-way forward, which is great for "real life" and securing him a spot with the Wings; but in terms of fantasy value, he stands to be below Filip Zadina and/or Michael Rasmussen. Also, the deal would net you two first-round picks in the same draft, versus your normal one, which gives you twice the chance of hitting a home run.
All things considered, I'd probably swing for the fences and do the deal. Losing Veleno will set your team back somewhat, but likely not too much; and in doing the deal, you double your opportunities to draft an even better player come 2023.
Question #7 (from Rick)
In points only keeper leagues, who gets the edge, Patrick Kane or Brad Marchand?
Full disclosure – the Rick who asked this is yours truly. Hey – I said I wasn't going to do something for April Fools, but I didn't rule out posing a question at all. Plus, this gives me an excuse to run a pseudo Cage Match, hearkening back to my old column.
What's intriguing about these two are they're only six months apart in age, and, looking at the past three seasons, Marchand has 259 points and Kane 270. As such, on paper, they stack up pretty evenly. So which one is the better own in a keeper?
Kane is a right-wing and Marchand a left-wing. But does that matter? Not much it turns out, as if we look at the past three seasons, including 2019-20, there have been 20 instances of LWs who averaged a point per game, versus 22 for RWs. And looking at instances of players averaging 0.73 points per game (i.e., a 60 point full season pace), there were 86 for RWs, versus 92 for LWs. So the fact that one is a LW and the other a RW isn't really consequential.
Marchand is a key part of a hugely successful line, whereas Kane, since the departure of Artemi Panarin, has been someone who creates offense himself. How dependent is Marchand on Boston's superline being intact, which is a concern since Patrice Bergeron isn't getting any younger and has had injuries in each of the past three seasons? During a six-game Bergeron absence, this season Marchand had five points. In 2018-19, when Bergeron was out for 14 consecutive games Marchand had 16 points, and in 2017-18 when Bergeron missed 16 games Marchand had a staggering 25 points. So concerns about Marchand's production is tied to Bergeron's presence in the line-up are seemingly unfounded.
What do luck metrics tell us? Marchand's IPP is on tap to drop for the second straight season, yet it remains above 70%. And at the same time, his OZ% is rising. So that's a wash. His PP Time and TOI overall are steady. Kane's IPP was 78% each of the past two seasons and is a staggering 84% for the 2019-20 campaign thus far. That's superb; however, there's nowhere for that to go but down. He's also seen his OZ% drop from 63%, or right where Marchand is for 2019-20, to below 60%. Much of that is likely due to Boston being a superior team; but let's not overlook Marchand's ample shorthanded duty, which mainly translates to starts in the defensive zone, meaning Marchand gets even more offensive zone starts than Kane at even strength and on the PP than it would otherwise appear.
If this was a contest based on raw talent alone, Kane would win; however, it's not. We have to look at the totality of circumstances; and on that basis, I think Marchand gets a narrow victory, as he's shown he can score with or without Bergeron, and has uber-talented David Pastrnak as a linemate, whereas Kane has no one close to that caliber, and Marchand has the better luck metrics overall.
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For those reading this now, it's never too early to start providing me with mailbag questions, which you can do in one of two ways: (1) by emailing them to [email protected] with the words "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line, or (2) by sending them to me via a private message on the DobberHockey Forums, where my username is "rizzeedizzee". Or if you prefer to wait, the time to get me question is right after each Roos Lets Loose Poll, since the mailbag normally runs the following week.
When sending me your questions, remember to provide as much detail about your league/situation as possible, since as you saw above in a couple of the questions there were some omitted details which made it difficult for me to give a truly proper answer. Examples of the types of things I need to know include what type of league you're in (i.e., limited keeper, dynasty, or one-year; roto vs H2H), does the salary cap matter, how many players are rostered (and of those, how many starts at each position), what categories are scored and how are they weighted, plus other details if necessary (such as free agents available if you're thinking of dropping a player or rosters of both teams if you're thinking of making a trade). The key is to tell me enough for me to give you a truly proper answer, and for readers of this column to benefit from the answer/advice I provide. When in doubt, err on the side of inclusion. See you next week for Goldipucks and the Three Skaters!