Top 10 Players With Increasing Shot Rates

Tom Collins

2020-06-08

During the last couple of weeks, I've been taking a bit of a dive into players who have seen their shot rates decrease over the last few seasons (see the columns here and here).

All of these players were either in a trend — or close to it — of declining shot rates, so fantasy general managers should have some level of concern. Of course, it's not all bad. There are plenty of players who have seen numerous increases in shot rates.

The reason why I look at shot rates instead of shots is because shot rate gives a more accurate picture when figuring out if a player is taking more or fewer shots. Injuries or suspensions can make it seem like a player had a decrease in shots when the opposite may have been true. 

Below are 10 players who have seen their shot rates rise in each of the past few seasons, and significantly overall. Most of the players on this list should continue to see their shot rates rise next year, so they should be a target when your draft rolls around (whenever that might be).

10. Blake Coleman

Coleman is one of those players where you pretty much know his shot rate is going to decrease next year, although it's not his fault. When he was in New Jersey, that shot rate went from 1.26 to 1.85 to 2.73 to 3.19. That's a tremendous uptick each season. Then he was traded to Tampa, and his ice time dropped by more than two minutes per game and his shot rate dropped to 2.0 in nine games. If he's still with the Lightning next season (and he should be, considering he is making only $1.8 million next year, which is excellent value for a team tight to the cap), then he simply won't get the ice time needed to get much more than two shots per game.

9. Anthony Mantha

It would be fair to say that Mantha's career for fantasy relevance has been a little underwhelming so far. Although his points-per-game mark has been improving, he's topped out at 48 points thanks to injuries. However, there are plenty of things to like about his game, and he will be a consistent 30-goal scorer if he can stay healthy. His shot rate has risen every season and is currently at 3.19 shots per game, almost a shot per game higher than it was in 2016-17. If he can score on 12 per cent of his shots (slightly under his career average) with the same shot rate, you have a 30-goal scorer over 82 games.

8. Jakub Vrana

Vrana was one of the surprises of this past season. He had already hit career high