Ramblings – Taking a close look at the top players in 2020 for Pts/60, Hits/60 and SOG/60 (June 8)
Announcement: The Fantasy Prospects Report (13th Edition) will be released this Friday (June 12)!
The Draft is likely happening in October after the 24-team playoffs that is forthcoming, so instead of posting an update as per usual in late June with a Mock Draft, I will post this update in October. Whenever the draft order is set, then we will update the Fantasy Prospects Report.
Announcement II: The FPR and all the usual packages are now available for pre-sale in the shop. For the very first time, I have launched subscription plans. Platinum, Gold and Silver plans, or you can just buy the Guide or the Packages as per usual. Up to you! The subscriptions plans expire every May 15 and are automatically charged – it saves you the hassle of going through the buying process each year, and instead the documents will be waiting for you in your downloads as soon as they are released. As an added incentive, the Gold subscription is a couple of bucks cheaper than its equivalent package (Ultimate). Thank you everyone for your support through these difficult times.
As you know, the NHL has officially ended the season and announced plans for playoff hockey involving 24 teams. Just over a week ago, in case you missed it, Ian wrote up an article digging into how commissioners should handle things in fantasy leagues.
This week I decided to look at some per-60 stats, and I wanted to see them based on recency. I'm not interested in full-season numbers, I'd like to see how things are trending after everyone has settled in. The coach has the players he trusts, the line combos have stabilized, players fit in with new teams, etc. As always, a trip to Frozen Tools is in order. The Report Generator. And I filtered it by date after December 31. So these are 2020 numbers. I also set a minimum games played of 10, so we don't get any prospects who played three shifts, got an assist, and thus have a Pts/60 of a thousand or whatever.
First, points per 60 minutes played.
|Name||Pos||Team||GP||Per 60 PTS|
These are all the players who averaged at least three points per 60 minutes played (43 of them). You can see evidence of the Tampa surge (no surprise why) and the Big 2 in Edmonton, of course. But you see interesting names further down such as Robert Thomas. He was on his way to a 52-point season, but let's not forget that he began the year with just four points in 16 games! That means he picked up 38 points in 50 games after that, which is a 62-point pace. Thomas doesn't hit his Breakout Threshold for another 64 games, but he's a pretty great candidate to breakout early. The key for him his PP time, which was starting to eke upwards in the latter two quarters of the season.
Another name to jump out, barely making the 10-game threshold, is Gabe Vilardi. Not a big enough sample size and it's not a sustainable pace this early in his career, but even 3.3 Pts/60 after 10 games is a great indicator that he not only has a future in the NHL, but he will likely be a top-sixer. I'm not the only one who was worried about that guy slipping in terms of development thanks to time missed. I stupidly took Henrik Borgstrom as an add-on in a trade over Vilardi, back in January, because I didn't trust Vilardi's back.
Nazem Kadri features noticeably on a few of these lists: 27th on Pts/60, 46th on SOG/60, 2nd on PIM/60 and 24th on PPPts/60. He only played 15 games in 2020, but for roto leagues he was fantastic in that timeframe.
Hits per 60 minutes played:
|Name||Pos||Team||GP||Per 60 Hits|
|JACOB DE LA ROSE||L||STL||13||17.5|
|PHILLIP DI GIUSEPPE||L||NYR||20||10.1|
Here is a good way to dig up some hidden gems in leagues that use Hits as a category. Particularly with young prospects. Look at Noah Gregor! (More on him in the Fantasy Prospects Report). Just a 10-game sample size, but you know he likes to throw down the Hits – 34th in the entire league in terms of Hits/60. This is a list of everyone who averaged above 9.5 (66 of them). I also had no idea that Chlapik was quite this rowdy out there. It points to his future as unlikely in the top six, but rather as a third-line energy guy. We all figured he was heading that way anyway, but this is further confirmation. Yakov Trenin, Sam Lafferty and Givani Smith are other youngsters who should be on the radar if you're in a league with Hits. I particularly like Trenin here because I think he can put up decent points as well.
It's also worth noting Nick Ritchie. His spot on the list had me dig deeper to see the difference between Boston and Anaheim – and it was vast. Anaheim – 79 Hits in 41 games (1.92). Boston – 23 Hits in seven games (3.29).
One further observation. He was much further down the list (155th to be exact – not shown) but Nicolas Roy averaged 6.6 Hits per 60 minutes over 21 games. When he becomes a regular, he should be good for 150 Hits or more in a season to go along with reasonable production.
One more list for you, this one is for shots on goal. I love looking at this as an indicator of future likelihood of reaching potential. It's how I identified Dominik Kubalik as a prospect to watch, and confirmed early in the season that he could really explode (felt so satisfied that he actually did). You won't see some of these players on the top SOG list, but because they are on the top SOG/60 list they could eventually get to that top SOG list. And if you shoot a lot, odds are you score a lot (or you'll stop getting the ice time to keep shooting!).
|Name||Pos||Team||GP||Per 60 SOG|
The above 57 players are everyone who averaged 9.5 shots per 60 minutes of ice time or higher.
Look at Kevin Fiala's shot volume!
I'm also surprised at Jonathan Marchessault. Fifth in the entire league in terms of shot volume by ice time? It gives me second thoughts about his decline.
Uh…Blake Coleman? I had to take a closer look. Nope, false alarm. Just 18 shots in nine games since joining Tampa. He was going nutty at the end of his New Jersey tenure, posting 93 shots in his last 19 games there – nearly five shots per game.
Tyler Ennis! Another closer look – he had 20 SOG in nine games with the Oilers, which wasn't much different than what he was doing in Ottawa.
Frank Vatrano and Vinnie Hinostroza are names that jump out at me. Great shot volume that makes me wonder if more ice time and better linemates would do something for them. But I won't be moving them up any lists until I actually see something like that happen (I have faith this could happen with the former, but little faith on the latter).
We all expected to see Jakub Vrana and Dominik Kubalik on there. But Rocco Grimaldi is your typical late-blooming small, skilled guy. But has he already been pigeonholed? Probably. But I do love it when a player busts his way out of that pigeonhole to gain fantasy value, so consider him a Dobber Darling hopeful.
Did you notice that the player profiles in Frozen Tools now have my rankings included? Yep – in a player profile click the info/analysis tab and you will that players ranking on all of our lists (prospect, regular, defense, goalie, cap league, roto). Click a player name above and take a look-see.
See you next Monday. Be safe. Thanks for continuing to support the website, and if you're bored and need a fantasy hockey fix – visit the gang in the forum here.
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