Ramblings – Taking a close look at the top players in 2020 for Pts/60, Hits/60 and SOG/60 (June 8)

Dobber

2020-06-08

Announcement: The Fantasy Prospects Report (13th Edition) will be released this Friday (June 12)!

The Draft is likely happening in October after the 24-team playoffs that is forthcoming, so instead of posting an update as per usual in late June with a Mock Draft, I will post this update in October. Whenever the draft order is set, then we will update the Fantasy Prospects Report.

Announcement II: The FPR and all the usual packages are now available for pre-sale in the shop. For the very first time, I have launched subscription plans. Platinum, Gold and Silver plans, or you can just buy the Guide or the Packages as per usual. Up to you! The subscriptions plans expire every May 15 and are automatically charged – it saves you the hassle of going through the buying process each year, and instead the documents will be waiting for you in your downloads as soon as they are released. As an added incentive, the Gold subscription is a couple of bucks cheaper than its equivalent package (Ultimate). Thank you everyone for your support through these difficult times.

*

As you know, the NHL has officially ended the season and announced plans for playoff hockey involving 24 teams. Just over a week ago, in case you missed it, Ian wrote up an article digging into how commissioners should handle things in fantasy leagues.

*

This week I decided to look at some per-60 stats, and I wanted to see them based on recency. I'm not interested in full-season numbers, I'd like to see how things are trending after everyone has settled in. The coach has the players he trusts, the line combos have stabilized, players fit in with new teams, etc. As always, a trip to Frozen Tools is in order. The Report Generator. And I filtered it by date after December 31. So these are 2020 numbers. I also set a minimum games played of 10, so we don't get any prospects who played three shifts, got an assist, and thus have a Pts/60 of a thousand or whatever.

First, points per 60 minutes played.

NamePosTeamGPPer 60 PTS
 NIKITA KUCHEROVRT.B324.4
STEVEN STAMKOSCT.B234.4
LEON DRAISAITLCEDM304.3
 CONNOR MCDAVIDCEDM234.2
 ARTEMI PANARINLNYR314.1
 DAVID PASTRNAKRBOS304
 MIKA ZIBANEJADCNYR323.8
 RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINSCEDM303.8
 EVGENI MALKINCPIT293.8
 KEVIN FIALALMIN293.8
 J.T. MILLERCVAN293.7
 MIKE HOFFMANLFLA313.7
SIDNEY CROSBYCPIT243.7
ANDRE BURAKOVSKYLCOL223.7
 PATRICK KANERCHI303.5
 NATHAN MACKINNONCCOL303.5
DOMINIK KUBALIKLCHI303.5
NIKOLAJ EHLERSLWPG323.4
 KYLE CONNORLWPG323.3
 BLAKE WHEELERRWPG323.3
 BRAYDEN POINTCT.B323.3
SEBASTIAN AHOCCAR293.3
 MIKAEL BACKLUNDCCGY293.3
KAILER YAMAMOTOREDM273.3
MARK STONERVGK233.3
GABRIEL VILARDICL.A103.3
 JONATHAN TOEWSCCHI303.2
 TRAVIS KONECNYRPHI303.2
TOMAS TATARLMTL293.2
NAZEM KADRICCOL153.2
AUSTON MATTHEWSCTOR303.1
 BRAD MARCHANDLBOS303.1
 JOHNNY GAUDREAULCGY293.1
 JAKUB VORACEKRPHI303.1
ANTHONY MANTHARDET143.1
 ALEX OVECHKINLWSH283
WILLIAM NYLANDERRTOR283
MAX PACIORETTYLVGK293
 ELIAS PETTERSSONCVAN283
ROBERT THOMASCSTL313
CHRIS KREIDERLNYR253
OLIVER BJORKSTRANDRCBJ133

These are all the players who averaged at least three points per 60 minutes played (43 of them). You can see evidence of the Tampa surge (no surprise why) and the Big 2 in Edmonton, of course. But you see interesting names further down such as Robert Thomas. He was on his way to a 52-point season, but let's not forget that he began the year with just four points in 16 games! That means he picked up 38 points in 50 games after that, which is a 62-point pace. Thomas doesn't hit his Breakout Threshold for another 64 games, but he's a pretty great candidate to breakout early. The key for him his PP time, which was starting to eke upwards in the latter two quarters of the season.

Another name to jump out, barely making the 10-game threshold, is Gabe Vilardi. Not a big enough sample size and it's not a sustainable pace this early in his career, but even 3.3 Pts/60 after 10 games is a great indicator that he not only has a future in the NHL, but he will likely be a top-sixer. I'm not the only one who was worried about that guy slipping in terms of development thanks to time missed. I stupidly took Henrik Borgstrom as an add-on in a trade over Vilardi, back in January, because I didn't trust Vilardi's back.

Other names you see there who could be more productive with added ice time – Dominik Kubalik, Andre Burakovsky, Oliver Bjorkstrand, and who doesn't love what Kevin Fiala was doing in the second half?

Nazem Kadri features noticeably on a few of these lists: 27th on Pts/60, 46th on SOG/60, 2nd on PIM/60 and 24th on PPPts/60. He only played 15 games in 2020, but for roto leagues he was fantastic in that timeframe.

*

Hits per 60 minutes played:

NamePosTeamGPPer 60 Hits
ZAC RINALDOCCGY1230.4
RYAN REAVESRVGK2925.4
MATT MARTINLNYI3023.1
ROSS JOHNSTONLNYI1022.5
SAMMY BLAISLSTL2021.8
FILIP CHLAPIKCOTT1320.2
DALE WEISERMTL2319.7
GABRIEL BOURQUELWPG2719.5
LUKE SCHENNDT.B1119.1
 GARNET HATHAWAYRWSH2918.4
JACOB DE LA ROSELSTL1317.5
WILLIAM CARRIERLVGK2917.3
BRENDAN LEMIEUXLNYR2416.6
 CHRISTIAN FISCHERRARI2016.6
SCOTT SABOURINROTT2216.3
TYLER MOTTECVAN2115.5
AUSTIN WATSONLNSH1715.5
CHRIS WAGNERRBOS2915.3
 BRADY TKACHUKLOTT3114.4
MILAN LUCICLCGY2914.2
NIC DOWDCWSH2814.1
 LAWSON CROUSELARI2913.9
NICOLAS DESLAURIERSLANA3213.8
 JAYCE HAWRYLUKROTT1813.8
 YAKOV TRENINCNSH1513.4
BRANDON TANEVLPIT2913.3
ANDREAS ENGLUNDDOTT1713.2
KYLE CLIFFORDLTOR2912.9
JOHN HAYDENCN.J2812.6
GIVANI SMITHRDET1612.5
TOM WILSONRWSH2912.3
CEDRIC PAQUETTECT.B3212.3
NOAH GREGORCS.J1012.2
ZACH ASTON-REESECPIT1812.2
LEO KOMAROVRNYI3012.1
 CARTER ROWNEYCANA3211.9
JOSH ARCHIBALDREDM3011.8
SAM LAFFERTYCPIT1911.7
JUSTIN ABDELKADERLDET2611.6
 ALEXANDER TRUECS.J1211.5
NICOLAS AUBE-KUBELRPHI2911.5
 DMYTRO TIMASHOVLDET1611.4
ADAM ERNELDET2511.4
ANTHONY BITETTODWPG2211.3
MARCUS FOLIGNOLMIN2911.2
JUJHAR KHAIRALEDM2711.2
ILYA LYUBUSHKINDARI2411.1
 NICK RITCHIELBOS2111
TYLER PITLICKCPHI3010.9
ZACK SMITHCCHI1710.9
 KIEFER SHERWOODRANA1010.8
ADAM LOWRYCWPG1210.5
JAMES NEALLEDM1410.3
MACKENZIE MACEACHERNLSTL1810.2
PHILLIP DI GIUSEPPELNYR2010.1
MARK BOROWIECKIDOTT1310.1
STEPHEN JOHNSDDAL1710
CASEY CIZIKASCNYI1610
JAMIE OLEKSIAKDDAL299.9
SEAN KURALYCBOS299.8
NICK FOLIGNOLCBJ319.8
IVAN BARBASHEVCSTL319.7
 BLAKE COLEMANCT.B289.6
 ZACK KASSIANREDM219.6
ROMAN POLAKDDAL219.6

Here is a good way to dig up some hidden gems in leagues that use Hits as a category. Particularly with young prospects. Look at Noah Gregor! (More on him in the Fantasy Prospects Report). Just a 10-game sample size, but you know he likes to throw down the Hits – 34th in the entire league in terms of Hits/60. This is a list of everyone who averaged above 9.5 (66 of them). I also had no idea that Chlapik was quite this rowdy out there. It points to his future as unlikely in the top six, but rather as a third-line energy guy. We all figured he was heading that way anyway, but this is further confirmation. Yakov Trenin, Sam Lafferty and Givani Smith are other youngsters who should be on the radar if you're in a league with Hits. I particularly like Trenin here because I think he can put up decent points as well.

It's also worth noting Nick Ritchie. His spot on the list had me dig deeper to see the difference between Boston and Anaheim – and it was vast. Anaheim – 79 Hits in 41 games (1.92). Boston – 23 Hits in seven games (3.29).

One further observation. He was much further down the list (155th to be exact – not shown) but Nicolas Roy averaged 6.6 Hits per 60 minutes over 21 games. When he becomes a regular, he should be good for 150 Hits or more in a season to go along with reasonable production.

*

One more list for you, this one is for shots on goal. I love looking at this as an indicator of future likelihood of reaching potential. It's how I identified Dominik Kubalik as a prospect to watch, and confirmed early in the season that he could really explode (felt so satisfied that he actually did). You won't see some of these players on the top SOG list, but because they are on the top SOG/60 list they could eventually get to that top SOG list. And if you shoot a lot, odds are you score a lot (or you'll stop getting the ice time to keep shooting!).

NamePosTeamGPPer 60 SOG
MAX PACIORETTYLVGK2915.7
 DAVID PASTRNAKRBOS3014
PATRIC HORNQVISTRPIT3013.8
 JUSTIN WILLIAMSRCAR2013.2
JONATHAN MARCHESSAULTCVGK2413.2
 NATHAN MACKINNONCCOL3013.2
AUSTON MATTHEWSCTOR3013.1
 KEVIN FIALALMIN2912.8
 BLAKE COLEMANCT.B2812.4
 TYLER TOFFOLIRVAN2812.4
 PATRICK KANERCHI3012.4
 ALEX OVECHKINLWSH2812.3
CRAIG SMITHRNSH3112.3
BRENDAN GALLAGHERRMTL2012.3
 MIKE HOFFMANLFLA3112.3
 ALEX DEBRINCATLCHI3011.4
TAYLOR HALLLARI2911.4
 BRADY TKACHUKLOTT3111.2
 JOHNNY GAUDREAULCGY2911.1
 TIMO MEIERRS.J3011
PATRIK LAINERWPG3111
TYLER ENNISCEDM3010.9
 EVANDER KANELS.J2710.9
 MIKA ZIBANEJADCNYR3210.8
 TYLER SEGUINCDAL2910.7
ANDERS LEELNYI3110.7
JEFF SKINNERLBUF2010.6
NIKOLAJ EHLERSLWPG3210.6
 FRANK VATRANOCFLA3110.5
 JAKE VIRTANENRVAN2910.5
VINNIE HINOSTROZARARI2810.5
 NIKITA KUCHEROVRT.B3210.5
 BROCK BOESERRVAN1710.5
 CONNOR MCDAVIDCEDM2310.3
 FILIP FORSBERGLNSH3110.2
CARL SODERBERGCARI2910.1
JORDAN WEALCMTL1810.1
WILLIAM NYLANDERRTOR2810.1
CHRIS KREIDERLNYR2510
ROOPE HINTZLDAL279.9
JARED MCCANNCPIT299.9
PATRICE BERGERONCBOS309.9
 JAKUB VRANALWSH299.9
 ROCCO GRIMALDIRNSH319.9
NAZEM KADRICCOL159.8
 JAKE DEBRUSKLBOS309.8
DOMINIK KUBALIKLCHI309.7
SEBASTIAN AHOCCAR299.7
SHEA THEODOREDVGK299.7
MILES WOODLN.J309.6
JEFF CARTERCL.A199.6
MIKKEL BOEDKERLOTT149.6
 RICKARD RAKELLLANA299.6
FILIP ZADINARDET139.6
JAKOB SILFVERBERGRANA289.6
ANTHONY DUCLAIRLOTT269.5

The above 57 players are everyone who averaged 9.5 shots per 60 minutes of ice time or higher.

Look at Kevin Fiala's shot volume!

I'm also surprised at Jonathan Marchessault. Fifth in the entire league in terms of shot volume by ice time? It gives me second thoughts about his decline.

Uh…Blake Coleman? I had to take a closer look. Nope, false alarm. Just 18 shots in nine games since joining Tampa. He was going nutty at the end of his New Jersey tenure, posting 93 shots in his last 19 games there – nearly five shots per game.

Tyler Ennis! Another closer look – he had 20 SOG in nine games with the Oilers, which wasn't much different than what he was doing in Ottawa.

Frank Vatrano and Vinnie Hinostroza are names that jump out at me. Great shot volume that makes me wonder if more ice time and better linemates would do something for them. But I won't be moving them up any lists until I actually see something like that happen (I have faith this could happen with the former, but little faith on the latter).

We all expected to see Jakub Vrana and Dominik Kubalik on there. But Rocco Grimaldi is your typical late-blooming small, skilled guy. But has he already been pigeonholed? Probably. But I do love it when a player busts his way out of that pigeonhole to gain fantasy value, so consider him a Dobber Darling hopeful.

*

Did you notice that the player profiles in Frozen Tools now have my rankings included? Yep – in a player profile click the info/analysis tab and you will that players ranking on all of our lists (prospect, regular, defense, goalie, cap league, roto). Click a player name above and take a look-see.

*

See you next Monday. Be safe. Thanks for continuing to support the website, and if you're bored and need a fantasy hockey fix – visit the gang in the forum here.

UPCOMING GAMES

No data found.

STARTING GOALIES

  • No data at this moment.

HOT PLAYERS

No data found.

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency NYR Players
30.7% PAVEL BUCHNEVICH ARTEMI PANARIN MIKA ZIBANEJAD
25.3% KAAPO KAKKO CHRIS KREIDER RYAN STROME
19.1% FILIP CHYTIL BRETT HOWDEN BRENDAN LEMIEUX

FIND US ON FACEBOOK