Announcement: The Fantasy Prospects Report (14^th Edition) was released on Friday (June 12)!

The Draft is likely happening in October after the 24-team playoffs that is forthcoming, so instead of posting an update as per usual in late June with a Mock Draft, I will post this update in October. Whenever the draft order is set, then we will update the Fantasy Prospects Report.

And I am still in the process of adding a couple more charts, and putting in a few added pieces to the Fantasy Prospects Report. I have updated it twice so far, and will likely do it two or three more times this week before I consider it complete (other than the October-ish Mock Draft).

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As part of the Fantasy Prospects Report, I always gather every contributor's Top 50 list of players they would draft in points-only keeper leagues – only players who have not yet played a regular season game in the NHL. This list also includes the draftees for that year, and defensemen get credit for double their anticipated goal total (to better balance with the forwards, otherwise it would just be a list of forwards). Some interesting notes, observations and back stories that I'll share.

Everyone had Alexis Lafreniere first on their list. Numero Uno. Unanimous.
From years of experience doing this, I ask the other contributors to the FPR to send in their Top 53. This saves me from going back to them if they accidentally slipped in a couple of players who actually played a game. Instead, I can just bump everyone up the list a spot, and their No. 51 guy gets used.
A lot of the writers this year had Alexander Khovanov, a Minnesota prospect, as a backup player (either 51, 52 or 53). I'm a fan of his upside, and I also like the way the Wild is looking in terms of allowing prospects opportunities over the next couple of years. So I had him 28^th on my list. But I guess the other contributors felt he wasn't quite appealing enough to put in their actual Top 50, yet he was too good to ignore completely, so he was on a lot of backup lists. Myself and Pat Quinn (DobberProspects Associate Editor) had him rated the second-highest to Dave Hall, who had him 27^th.
I was had the following players rated higher than anyone else: Grigori Denisenko (5), Vasili Podkolzin (6), Nicholas Robertson (7), Nils Lundkvist (8), Philip Tomasino (11), Victor Soderstrom (15), Jakob Pelletier (25), Jan Jenik (35).
I was the only person to have Matt Phillips on my list (my usual small, skilled player bias), and I was one of just two people to have Pierre-Olivier Joseph on my list. I was one of three people to have Sasha Chmelevski and Jeremy Bracco (ahem) on my list.

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As usual, I had the fewest of this year's draftees on my list. Those who have been reading my stuff for a long time know that I place a lot of value in roster space – and I don't like a prospect taking up that space for five years without contributing. I generally like prospects who have a chance of helping me within two seasons. Because often that means it's more like three, and I was wrong. So I can't imagine being "wrong" on a projected four- or five-year wait time, as then we'd be talking six years or even seven. No thanks – not when I can find good 21-year-olds out there who are still available.

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Delving into my thoughts on the names noted above:

Denisenko:

From the Fantasy Prospects Report…

Podkolzin:

Also from the FPR…

Robertson:

Very high upside and a natural when it comes to high shot volume. I also don't think the wait time will be very long. The Leafs will need him and his rookie contract sooner rather than later.

Lundkvist:

I think the only thing holding Lundkvist down on everyone else's list is the fact that Anthony DeAngelo has proven to be an elite offensive defenseman, Adam Fox made a massive rookie debut in terms of production, and Jacob Trouba is a proven 50-point defenseman. How will Lundkvist fit in? Well, the cream always rises to the top. He won't be held back, one way or another.

Tomasino:

Another excerpt from the FPR for any of you still holding out from making the best decision of your fantasy hockey career and buying it…

Soderstrom:

I always tend to rate the goalies and defensemen a little higher than forwards, and blue-chip defensemen are too rare not to push up your draft list.

Pelletier:

This, one last time from the Fantasy Prospects Report…

Jenik:

We have him at three years of wait-time. But I have this hunch that he expedites things, and this becomes painfully obvious over the course of 2020-21. So I want him on my team before he gets snatched up in the first round of my league's draft next year. Arizona, two years from now, seems like it will be a good fit for him.

📢 advertisement:

Phillips:

As I noted above, I have a bias towards the smaller skilled guys because it's boom or bust, more often than not. You're probably not getting your typical 55-point fantasy player. He's either a 75-point NHL star, or he's an AHLer or Euro-hockey star. And with Phillips, we should have a good idea as to which one he will be within two (or possibly three) years. So that aligns nicely with my "I hate waiting" strategy.

Joseph:

The timing for Joseph is lining up beautifully. He'll make the jump in 2021-22 (so just waiting a year), and at that point Kris Letang will be 34 years old with two years left on his contract. A nice apprenticeship under Letang for a year and a half (before Letang inevitably gets traded at the deadline of his UFA season) and then the reins are passed to Joseph. And at that point Sidney Crosby will still have three or four really good years left in him. Yes please.

Chmelevski:

I've had Chmelevski high on my radar for a couple of years now. I'm happy with how he transitioned to the pros and I love how shallow San Jose is at forward – now and in the immediate future. The road to success is already paved for him.

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Names I had 'just off' my list of 50:

Samuel Fagemo (LAK), Anton Lundell ('20), Jack Quinn ('20), and I also considered deeper guys such as Adam Beckman and Jonathan Dahlen. In the end, my preference for players who are closer to the NHL won out. I really want players who help this year or the year after (so 2021-22 at the latest).

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Of the 2020-eligible players, I have Cole Perfetti ranked ahead of Lucas Raymond and Alexander Holtz for points-only keeper leagues. Because in the end, hockey sense can't be taught, and in close comparables I always go with the smarts. More often than not, it pays off.

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Anyone who had Kirill Kaprizov ranked lower than second on their lists will quickly realize how wrong they were. I think he's stepping into the league next year and winning the Calder Trophy, or at least making it close with Lafreniere. And I think over the next 10 years he will have more points than anyone on that list, other than – maybe – Lafreniere. Year after year I see, both when compiling this list as well as in real-life fantasy drafts, that there is a heavy recency bias that nudges people in the direction of drafting the hyped-up new draftees. It's not a bad move, it's just that in my opinion it's not the best move. It's an extra year of waiting versus the hyped-up draftees from last year (why not take those?). And it's two extra years of waiting versus the hyped-up draftees from two years ago (why not take those?).

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The NHL will tentatively open training camps on July 10. I believe this means, based on a three-week training camp, that the 24-team tournament will begin on the weekend of July 31. All statistics in this tournament will be considered playoff statistics and awarding this year's Conn Smythe Trophy will use the entire tournament's stats for consideration. I will make the appropriate adjustments to my Interactive Playoff Draft List. I am also following up with Fantrax and other hockey pool trackers about their adjustments for tracking.

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Did you notice that the player profiles in Frozen Tools now have my rankings included? Yep – in a player profile click the info/analysis tab and you will that players ranking on all of our lists (prospect, regular, defense, goalie, cap league, roto). Click a player name above and take a look-see.

Announcement II: The FPR and all the usual packages are now available for sale in the shop. For the very first time, I have launched subscription plans. Platinum, Gold and Silver plans, or you can just buy the Guide or the Packages as per usual. Up to you! The subscriptions plans expire every May 15 and are automatically charged – it saves you the hassle of going through the buying process each year, and instead the documents will be waiting for you in your downloads as soon as they are released. As an added incentive, the Gold subscription is a couple of bucks cheaper than its equivalent package (Ultimate). Thank you everyone for your support through these difficult times.

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See you next Monday. Be safe. Thanks for continuing to support the website, and if you're bored and need a fantasy hockey fix – visit the gang in the forum here.