Capped: Value fluctuations for top cap league options

Alexander MacLean

2020-07-30

We can count the time until hockey starts again in hours now, not days. Hopefully that doesn't mean you all stop reading about it though. Whether or not there are games being played, the DobberSports crew is always pumping out new fantasy content. On that note, the Top 200 Cap League Skaters was updated just a few days ago, and I wanted to discuss a few players that just missed the cut, because there are still solid assets outside of that top 200 mark.

 

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Oskar Lindblom (LW) – Philadelphia Flyers

New Cap Hit: $3,000,000 – UFA in 2023

Current Rank: 215

In one of the best recent stories, Oscar Lindblom recent beat his cancer diagnosis, and looks to be on the path back to playing games for the Flyers. He also signed a three-year, $3.0 million AAV contract, and as an excellent player on both ends of the ice will be a bargain for that price. However, his all-around talent doesn't fully translate to the fantasy game, meaning his $3 million price tag for us is about a fair price and not necessarily a bargain. That drops him down on this list until he breaks out offensively in 2021-2022 – book it.

 

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Jason Zucker (RW) – Pittsburgh Penguins

Cap Hit: $5,500,000 – UFA in 2023

Current Rank: 203

Zucker just misses the list due to his historic point totals not quite matching up with the value needed to match his mid-tier AAV. However, now that he is in Pittsburgh, the upside is there to provide some value, and that bumped him up to the 200 range. If he can mesh at all with either of Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin, then he should be inside the top 200 in time for one of the fall updates.

 

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Patrice Bergeron (C) – Boston Bruins

Cap Hit: 6,875,000 – UFA in 2022

Current Rank 272

Bergeron is now 35, and that is really pulling down his rating. He has the scoring history and the bargain contract to pull him up into the top 200, but the age factor, missed games, and slight downward trend in production is pushing him down the list. In fantasy league you probably just have to hold onto him at this point and hope that he keeps defying father time, as any return in a trade would be underwhelming compared to what he can produce when he is healthy.

 

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Colton Parayko (D) – St. Louis Blues

New Cap Hit: 5,500,000 – UFA in 2022

Current Rank: 222

Parayko feels like he should be higher on this list because he's a great real life defenceman, he has the scoring upside, and produces peripheral stats as well. However, for points only leagues he gets overrated a little, as he has yet to even touch 40 points in a season. He may do it in the coming seasons if Alex Pietrangelo doesn't come back, and he gets handed the PP1 reins instead of Vince Dunn or Justin Faulk, but for right now that's too many ifs for a player being paid $5.5 million.

 

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Max Domi (LW) – Montreal Canadiens

New Cap Hit: 2020 Restricted Free Agent

Current Rank: 233

Domi's poor production this past year dragged him down, but not enough for his predicted cap hit to lower to the point of landing him on the bargain side of things. He's projected to earn over $6 million per year on his next deal, and the uncertainty of his production with that kind of price tag means there are other more valuable options to fit onto your roster instead.

 

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Alex Tuch (LW) – Vegas Golden Knights

New Cap Hit: $4,750,000 – UFA in 2026

Current Rank: 229

This is a situation where Tuch was given a contract he was supposed to grow into, and then everything went wrong. Tuch got injured, the cap stops inflating, and the Golden Knights improved their depth to the point that Tuch can't even win a spot in the top-six when he is healthy. Tuch has the upside to outperform what could be a value contract, but the pieces just haven't come close to being put together yet. Sitting exactly on the 200-game breakout threshold, maybe next year is the year for him.

 

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Tyler Seguin (RW) – Dallas Stars

New Cap Hit: $9,850,000 – UFA in 2027

Current Rank: 276

For all his talent, it feels like there's no way Seguin should be this low on the list. However, his mega-deal is starting to look like a bit much, even though we're only in year one of eight. Seguin is a great player, and can score with the best of them, but the supporting cast is lacking a dynamic talent, in addition to the team taking on one of the stingiest strategies. As long as those two anchors are holding Seguin down, he won't be able to crack the top-200.

 

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Viktor Arvidsson (RW) – Nashville Predators

New Cap Hit: $4,250,000 – UFA in 2024

Current Rank: 252

Arvidsson had a really tough year and didn't exactly look like his usual self after returning from a tough injury sustained by a cross-check from Robert Bortuzzo. Once Arvidsson is back to full health (and if he stays healthy), then he could easily jump back into the top-200 based on his scoring rate and bargain cap hit. His last eight games before the break he put up five points, so it may not be long in coming either.

 

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If you have any article topics for me to look into, give me a shout! You can find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean for questions, comments, or article requests.

And stay safe!

 

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Previous Capped Articles:

Players to Target – Or Not – Based on their Fluctuating Value

Salary Predictions for the Top 200 Free Agent Skaters

UPCOMING GAMES

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STARTING GOALIES

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HOT PLAYERS

  Players Team GP G A P
EVGENI MALKIN PIT 5 4 7 11
ADAM FOX NYR 4 1 6 7
JAKUB VORACEK PHI 6 0 10 10
NATHAN MACKINNON COL 5 2 6 8
MIKA ZIBANEJAD NYR 29 25 19 44
NIKITA KUCHEROV T.B 24 16 20 36
KEVIN FIALA MIN 11 9 7 16
EVANDER KANE S.J 7 5 5 10
KYLE CONNOR WPG 7 8 2 10
RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS EDM 17 8 16 24

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency DAL Players
23.6% JAMIE BENN ROOPE HINTZ TYLER SEGUIN
21.3% JASON DICKINSON DENIS GURIANOV COREY PERRY
20% MATTIAS JANMARK JOE PAVELSKI ALEXANDER RADULOV

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