One of the easiest ways to tell if a player is going to break out is to look at the percentage of time he starts in the offensive zone versus the defensive zone.

Two types of players get a ton of offensive zone starts: Elite offensive players, and those that are awful on defense. Most top players start in the offensive zone at least 55 per cent of the time. For some, it gets as high as 70 per cent. Heck, Mike Ribeiro started in the offensive zone on 84.8 per cent of his shifts in 2015-16. That's the highest since the NHL started keeping track of the stat a dozen years ago.

When looking at your fantasy squad, you want players that will get the majority of their starts in the offensive zone. On the flip side, players with low offensive zone starts should worry you. A player starting in the defensive zone has to win the faceoff, get out of the zone, get into the offensive zone and then start trying to score. If the average NHL shift is 47 seconds, a player could be wasting a third of that shift of it just in those few steps.

Of course, the team matters a great deal. Vegas is so dominant that only one player (Brayden McNabb) started more shifts in the defensive zone than the offensive zone.

Below are 10 players who had offensive zone starts that were below 50 per cent. The players had to have played at a minimum of 20 games this season. Generally speaking, since a line plays together so much, they will start in the offensive zone the same amount of time. To keep these players from repeating, I'm only going to include one player from each squad.

In case you are curious, although he's not listed, Jay Beagle started in the offensive zone for only 14.1 per cent of his shifts, the lowest among all NHL players (again, 20-game minimum).

10. Noel Acciari

This year, Acciari started in the offensive zone on only 35.2 per cent of his shifts. And that's not irregular. It's a three-year high. Last year, he started in the offensive zone 35.16 of the time, and the season before 33.02 per cent. That makes it more amazing that he scored 20 goals this season (although 12 of them came in a 12-game stretch in December/January). With usage like this, don't expect a repeat of 20 goals next season.

9. Joel Eriksson Ek

JEE is one of those young players that you keep hoping will breakthrough, but things just don't seem to break his way. While his points-per-game, ice time and faceoff wins continue to rise (to go along with a decent hits-per-game rate), he's still not getting any power-play time, and now he's not getting the offensive zone starts either. He's gone from 56 per cent of offensive zone starts in his rookie season in 2016-17 to 42.6 per cent this year, the lowest number on the Wild.

8. Anthony Cirelli

Depending on what happens in the offseason with the Lightning (who will have to make some significant moves because of the flat salary cap), Cirelli might be a sexy pick for a breakout season next year. He posted 16 goals and 44 points in 68 games this season while seeing an increase in ice time by three-and-a-half minutes over last season with a little bit of power-play time. He also has increased his shot rate and hits-per-game in each season. That's pretty impressive considering he started in the offensive zone on 45.2 per cent of his shifts, one of the lowest on the Lightning.

7. Colton Parayko

A couple of years ago, Parayko was a top pick to be the next breakthrough defenseman, but it hasn't happened. Maybe next season if Alex Pietrangelo leaves in free agency. For now, Parayko plays the hard minutes, starting in the offensive zone on only 45.6 per cent of his shifts. I'm not too sure how much that will increase next season. While Vince Dunn doesn't get as many minutes, he does see more power-play time, and starts in the offensive zone on 59.4 per cent of his shifts. 

6. Filip Hronek

When a team is awful, they will generally be stuck in their zone for longer stretches and have more faceoffs in their own zone. That's why it's not surprising to see 14 Red Wings this year have more faceoffs in the defensive zone than the offensive zone. There's a lot of hope that Hronek can be the next productive defenseman, but he'll have to get more starts in the offensive zone, where 42 per cent of his shifts began this season.

5. Jacob Trouba

In his last season with the Jets, Trouba started 51.2 per cent of his shifts in the offensive zone. That was a career high, but in the previous two seasons, he was around 48 per cent starts. In his first year with the Rangers, those offensive zone starts cratered to 45.2 per cent, easily a career low. That's the second-lowest number on the Rangers (only Libor Hajek had a lower percentage). Part of this could be chalked up to the Rangers wanting to give the offensive zone starts to Tony DeAngelo and Adam Fox, both of whom started in the offensive zone for more than 53.5 per cent of their shifts.

4. Andrew Mangiapane

The Flames' second-line winger is getting the coach's trust more as each season goes by. That also means e is starting in the offensive zone less and less each season. This year dropped to 45.1 per cent. That's even lower than his main linemates, Matthew Tkachuk (48 per cent) and Mikael Backlund (53 per cent). Mangiapane is still a couple of seasons away from a breakout, but it might be smart to stash him on your roster now if you have the roster space and the time to wait.

3. Ryan Pulock

The Islanders are a bit of a strange team when it comes to offensive zone starts. Only six Islanders started in the offensive zone on at least 50 per cent of their shifts. Meanwhile, seven players were below 40 per cent. Pulock was down at 39.7 per cent, one of the lowest percentages for a fantasy-relevant defenseman. He's always been below 50 per cent in his career, and I'm wondering if all those defensive zone starts are the reason why he hasn't broken through as many hoped for.

2. Ivan Provorov

This was the first season where he's run the Flyers power play, and his offensive zone starts are still low. He is a threat for 200 shots, 100 hits and 100 blocked shots next year. However, he starts in the offensive zone just 42.4 per cent of the time. One of the main reasons is that the Flyers still have Shayne Gostisbehere on their roster, who needs sheltered starts. Just over 60 per cent of Ghost's shifts start in the offensive zone, leaving Provorov to pick up the slack on defense. I'm thinking you'll see a shift next season if Gostisbehere is dealt to another team.

1. Bo Horvat

Horvat started in the offensive zone on only 39.4 per cent of his shifts. That's extremely low, and depending on how deep your league's rosters are, probably the lowest of a fantasy-relevant player. Sure, teammate Tyler Motte might start in the offensive zone on 18.1 per cent of his shifts, but how many leagues have Motte on a roster? While the top line of the Canucks starts in the offensive zone on almost two-thirds of their shifts, that leaves Horvat to start more in the defensive zone. This is nothing new for Horvat. He's been below 50 per cent in every season he's been in the league, and last year was at 39.9 per cent.