Ramblings – Thoughts on the Avalanche getting steamrolled, Beauvillier, Fleury, Miller and more (August 31)

Dobber

2020-08-31

Last week I broke ground on the 2020-21 Fantasy Hockey Guide. It's my 15th Guide. The timeline will be tight this year, with Free Agency opening up on October 9 and the season kicking off December 1 (tentatively). Many of your drafts will be held in late October, so I want to get this guide out as quickly as possible. Which means writing whatever I can in advance. Any analysis of the season that just ended can be done now – pretty much everything up until the final team rosters and injury notes. My projections rely on the actual team makeup, so that part needs to wait. I am targeting a release of October 16 for half the Guide, with the complete version ready by October 30 (or earlier if I can).

Oddly enough, a few leagues out there are actually holding drafts now. And they have pre-ordered my Fantasy Guide…and then wondering why it's not out yet. I can't do projections if I don't know the teams! Where will Braden Holtby sign? Alex Pietrangelo? Taylor Hall? Tyson Barrie? I do appreciate the eagerness, but commissioners: delay your draft. It needs to take place in the offseason, after the NHL Draft and Free Agency.

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Further to my notes last week about European prospects getting in a couple of months of game action in European Leagues, this seems to be spreading to young NHLers now too. Last week I mused that the European prospects getting in 15 or 20 extra games in the KHL, SHL or Liiga may get a bump in their odds of making their NHL team versus North American prospects. NHLers such as Rasmus Asplund (Buffalo – Sweden) and Filip Hronek (Detroit – Czech) will get in some extra games, so will they head into NHL training camps in midseason form? Will this mean hot starts for those particular players? I don't think it hurts, other than if of course an injury strikes.

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The second-round series that most has me scratching my head is the Dallas-Colorado tilt. I haven't been impressed by the Stars all season long and into the postseason. Whereas the Avalanche has impressed me more with each passing day. I'm nailing all my second-round projections…except for the only one that I said would be over in four – this one. I thought the Av's would waltz past the Stars. But Dallas has been skating around Colorado as if they were pilons. This Dallas team, with a bottom-four offense (just 180 goals scored in the regular season – 27 teams scored more) has now scored 19 (!) goals in four games. Pavel Francouz is 1-3 with a 4.54 GAA and 0.862 SV% in the series. Francouz was pulled on Sunday in the 5-4 loss.

In the regular season, Francouz faced an average shot distance of 39.2 feet and 20% high-danger shots. In the playoffs so far, he's faced them from 32.8 feet away, with 32.9% of his shots faced considered high danger. It's the defense that's crumbling without Erik Johnson.

Oops – Cale Makar

"almost his Steve Smith moment…"

Radek Faksa had three points on Sunday and he has five points in four games against Colorado, including three points on the power play coming off the second unit. That unit, with Faksa, Denis Gurianov, Roope Hintz, Corey Perry and Miro Heiskanen, scored twice on Sunday and has become just as dangerous as the top unit.

With two points on Sunday, John Klingberg is bouncing back from a modest regular season. He has 10 points in 12 postseason games.

For Colorado, Andre Burakovsky picked up a pair of points and he now has 11 points in 12 postseason games. He has 31 points in his last 29 combined regular and post-season games.

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Amazing news here. Cancer-fighter Oskar Lindblom actually skated in warm-ups on Sunday! Amazing return, something that I didn't see possible for at least 10 or 12 months (and likely more), has taken him about nine. He didn't get into the game, but you get the feeling that it will happen in Game 5. Just fantastic…

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The Isles have a stranglehold on that series though, and not even the surprise start of Brian Elliott could stop them.

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Carter Hart had given up three goals per game on average over the last five games (i.e. 3.00 GAA after back-to-back shutouts). So with back-to-back games, Coach Alain Vigneault figured now was as good a time as any to shake things up. But now the Flyers are down three games to one.

Rookie Joel Farabee led the Flyers in shots on goal with five. Though he was held off the scoreboard.

The game for the Isles came down Thomas Greiss' 36 saves, and the hot line of Brock Nelson, Josh Bailey and Anthony Beauvillier. It wouldn't surprise me if all three of them post around 60 points next season. Nelson's pace this past season pro-rates to 65, while Bailey's pace was for 52, after seasons of 56 and 71. Beauvillier was on pace for a 47-point season, which would set career highs. But at just 23 years of age, I think Beauvillier can be the best of all three of them. He has 11 points in 13 games so far.

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Vegas elected to start Marc-Andre Fleury for the first time in the playoffs, despite Robin Lehner coming off a shutout. It's the playoffs, but the coaches mostly seem to be sticking with their strategy of not starting a goalie on consecutive nights. Elite athletes. But I digress. It paid off for Vegas, who took a 3-1 series lead thanks to three goals in the third. It was a shaky start for Flower, giving up two goals on the first nine shots, but then he settled in and stopped 20 of 21.

JT Miller assisted on all three Vancouver goals. He can definitely hold his head up high when it comes to his performance in the postseason – 14 points in 14 games. This is on the heels of 72 points in 69 games in the regular season. Obviously his breakout season, but I honestly think he would have had this one in 2018-19 with Tampa Bay. He started the season off with 14 points in 16 games that year playing on the top line. Then, inexplicably, he was buried deeper in the lineup. And then traded. But this breakout 'should' have happened a year before it did.

All series in the NHL playoffs right now are at 3-1.

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On a personal note, yesterday I celebrated my third "re-birthday" – the three-year anniversary of receiving my stem-cell transplant. For those who don't know, I was diagnosed in May of 2017 with a form of cancer known as MDS. This later escalated to AML (leukemia) and you can find that statement from 2017 here. Three years is a big milestone, and it was the date I had circled on the calendar over 38 months ago. Because at that point I would be as in the clear as one with this form of cancer can be. I feel as strong, healthy and fit as ever. This week the doctor informed me that I now have a 90% chance of living a full normal life expectancy. For those following my story – it has reached a happy conclusion, and one that brings hope to others going through the same process. Thank you everyone for your support throughout, particularly during that very tough early first year when my life was upside down.

Pictured clockwise from top left: the donor’s stem cells, putting a puzzle together in the hospital with my youngest Mackenzie about 16 days post-transplant, my Hickman line in late July, and finally where I am today.

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See you next Monday.

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